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  • #28,161
  • Edited 4:42am Feb 19, 2011 4:28am | Edited 4:42am
For the record, Level 4 calculations are showing, if it hits 1.02 then start slapping some kegs for the downwards drip.
Once that drip..drip...gets closer to 0.98...expect a drip..drip...BANG towards 0.8900

On a daily basis, continue dripping it on the second leg up, which usually follows the first leg instantly.

Market never does what you expect it to do, hence, caution is required. But technically, what takes
several months to build UPWARDS, only takes DAYS to correct DOWNWARDS
4th May 2010 = 0.9272 - 20th May 2010 = 0.8071 = DOWN 1200 pips in 16 days!

I suppose once it starts correcting...it'll catch us all by surprise, hence only some of us will be in the money :-(

Hope this helps
Sanks
Ely McShagger.............he who always laughs last
  • #28,162
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:40am Feb 19, 2011 6:40am
this pair IMO will eventually have to go down....all what we're waiting for is for the long term players to start exit en masse...
  • #28,163
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:53am Feb 19, 2011 6:53am
not only AUD is overvalued. sometime it will go down. at .86 and even even lower. but then, many currencies and not only are going to follow. that moment is not know yet, but i think one morning we'll start seeing it in front of our very eyes.

for the time being, monday seems to be a good day for scalping. after three uptrend waves and the US markets closed, it's very likely that it's going to be in quite a tight range.

nice week this had been...
  • #28,164
  • Feb 19, 2011 1:48pm Feb 19, 2011 1:48pm
Ascending wedge and bull stick sandwich candle formation on the weekly - if price was going to head south, it should have done so last week, instead we now have two bull candles sandwiching a bear candle, and an ascending wedge pattern. Price will likely break out above the wedge horizontal line. It may consolidate more before the push north.

Inclined to think we are in for some extremely volatile moves - UCHF is displaying a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly, coming down for a 3rd test of the W bottom, if this bottom breaks (a triple bottom) the majors will go ballistic. And there are numerous indications in other charts that this is exactly what will happen.

That said, be watchful for resistance on the S&P futures @1370 (when it gets there) and a possible sudden sharp reversal.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uchf weekly.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #28,165
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:01pm Feb 19, 2011 9:01pm
Quoting papaki
not only AUD is overvalued. sometime it will go down. at .86 and even even lower. but then, many currencies and not only are going to follow. that moment is not know yet, but i think one morning we'll start seeing it in front of our very eyes.

for the time being, monday seems to be a good day for scalping. after three uptrend waves and the US markets closed, it's very likely that it's going to be in quite a tight range.

nice week this had been...

Currencies are stupid one way train. It does not matter if AUD is over valued or not. The bull trend will last years.

When the recent high is broken, Aud will go as high as 1.1
There is no need to short this year or even next year.
Just hold on to the long position and enjoy the swaps.
  • #28,166
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:59pm Feb 19, 2011 9:59pm
Quoting mry2001
Currencies are stupid one way train. It does not matter if AUD is over valued or not. The bull trend will last years.

When the recent high is broken, Aud will go as high as 1.1
There is no need to short this year or even next year.
Just hold on to the long position and enjoy the swaps.
nice arguments,,
do not be surprised if this month will be at 1.1 AU
it is an easy thing for AU,
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #28,167
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:15am Feb 20, 2011 8:15am
Yes crappy usdollar, not much news about aud this week.
Wondering about correlation? I see supply tho.

Guessing it will mostly be ranging this week between
1.0042 (max 0.9940) to 1.0178 (max 1.0275),
but, first correction south, let's see what this does the first 2 days of the week.

peace
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #28,168
  • Feb 20, 2011 2:28pm Feb 20, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting mry2001
Currencies are stupid one way train. It does not matter if AUD is over valued or not. The bull trend will last years.

When the recent high is broken, Aud will go as high as 1.1
There is no need to short this year or even next year.
Just hold on to the long position and enjoy the swaps.

Something I could agree. Carry could be a nice big bonus on some pairs. Yes yes.
  • #28,169
  • Feb 20, 2011 4:35pm Feb 20, 2011 4:35pm
A very nice bullish wedge is forming on the daily... The aussie may get a long term from me in a few days or a week. Targets look to be in the area of 1.09
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,170
  • Feb 20, 2011 6:07pm Feb 20, 2011 6:07pm
Quoting Venice
A very nice bullish wedge is forming on the daily... The aussie may get a long term from me in a few days or a week. Targets look to be in the area of 1.09

not yet, looks bull from the chart, but the middleeast and north affrica revolution really worries me a lot,
i would see watch and see sometime before take bull action.
  • #28,171
  • Feb 20, 2011 6:17pm Feb 20, 2011 6:17pm
Quoting yakuzaking
not yet, looks bull from the chart, but the middleeast and north affrica revolution really worries me a lot,
i would see watch and see sometime before take bull action.
I agree with you Yaku, Aus is on its way down now
  • #28,172
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:55pm Feb 20, 2011 8:55pm
We approaching again the supply zone as previous but maybe this time the AUD will break out of this level if the US$ drops more and the EUR stays bullish.
If that breakout happens watch closely the previous resistance area and if price bounces of that it will be the new demand area to go higher.
If price fails to break out I will reload longs down at the fib and lower value area as the trend still is bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd.gif Size: 26 KB


Cheers
  • #28,173
  • Feb 21, 2011 1:08am Feb 21, 2011 1:08am
Quoting 21vs7
Yes, agreed on breakout. Still, only long for me today.
We should see some more gains in AUD.

AUDCAD is also on the same side. Still, if this nest there is going to be stronger - as also in AUDUSD 1.020, then we can see a retrace at least to 1,0055. But not really betting on this. Like the Carry also Next level is around 1,0180.

AUDUSD buy 1.0113
TP 1.0183
SL 1.0083
0,30%

I suspect a rise in this mofo to be done by London open. Cmon Europe!

OK, hope on a side...USD still on Neutral terriotory for me...Will see what monday will bring. Also AUD on a Neutral territory. I see a little of selling on Signal report in my analysis in AUD but still. Khm. We should see some more weakness in USD for the begining of the week. Later on we could see some gains. AUDUSD should again test 1,02 resistance, then on my orders wont be open anymore.

Have a nice day!
  • #28,174
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:18am Feb 21, 2011 7:18am
went long on audusd. target 1.0140
To Your Success!!
  • #28,175
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:10am Feb 21, 2011 8:10am
Quoting ndsouz
went long on audusd. target 1.0140
good luck. i went long on usd/cad. TP at .9888. no stop loss.
  • #28,176
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:17am Feb 21, 2011 8:17am
Quoting FX-Petra
Don't mean to chicken out, but I am moving my stop up from 9970 to 1.0105. Holding for TP level of 1.0175, but that is damn near the downward sloping trend line, do I am moving TP down 10 pips to 1.0165. Either way, this has been a nice trade. If my TP is hit, I may break out my Jeff Buckley "Hallelujah" cd again. Been a while since I have done that. Maybe I am getting my goove back. Good trades to all!

Regards,
My trade from 9970 never made it to my target of 1.0165. I moved my stop up to 1.0105 to lock in a nice gain, and it was hit in the night while I slept. I'm disappointed that the trade did not reach my target, but I cannot feel bad about a 135 pip gain. I am flat A/U right now. I will sell the top channel line near 160 with a tight stop-reverse if it breaks out. Would buy the bottom channel line near 9980 also with a tight stop-reverse on a break. This looks to be ranging in a traingle/wedge pattern to me. Good trades to all...

Regards,
  • #28,177
  • Feb 21, 2011 9:22am Feb 21, 2011 9:22am
Whilst there certainly appears to be a bullish triangle wedge pattern on the AUD-USD there also exists a second pattern that has been forming over the last 5 months ie a diamond top pattern.

The diamond top pattern is considered to be bearish.

High to Low range of the diamond is 700 pips. So downside target would be 0.93 approx.
Should the diamond fail to an upside breakout, target would then become 1.09.
It will be interesting to see if the bullish wedge or bearish diamond wins the day.

Tonkar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,178
  • Feb 21, 2011 10:00am Feb 21, 2011 10:00am
http://www.bsdfin.com/wp-content/upl...-PM-1-hour.png
  • #28,179
  • Feb 21, 2011 10:11am Feb 21, 2011 10:11am
Maybe tommorrow when US is open all the markets of eurusd, gbpusd and audusd will rally up... I expect AUDUSD in such a case to easily go to my target 1.0200
To Your Success!!
  • #28,180
  • Feb 21, 2011 10:14am Feb 21, 2011 10:14am
nice, it should go at 1.0200 but if go there target is much higher, becouse we all wait triangle to break, not on h1 higher tf
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