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GBP/USD - one trade a day

  • #421
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:45am Feb 18, 2011 9:45am
Well I like to think I am fairly quick on the trigger finger but on my broker(Alpari UK) today, by the time I had clicked on sell, ok for confirmation, my entry price was 1.61987 with stop at 1.62187. Got stopped out at that for -20pips. However actual open of candle on my chart was 1.62007 and high was 1.62198 so on back test or just eyeballing charts this would seem like small win, but in real life was total stopout. Wonder if this sort
of thing would alter all backtesting stats. that have been done by cgrey and others. Just a thought.

Geoff
  • #422
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:51am Feb 18, 2011 9:51am
Quoting GEOFFREY62
Well I like to think I am fairly quick on the trigger finger but on my broker(Alpari UK) today, by the time I had clicked on sell, ok for confirmation, my entry price was 1.61987 with stop at 1.62187. Got stopped out at that for -20pips. However actual open of candle on my chart was 1.62007 and high was 1.62198 so on back test or just eyeballing charts this would seem like small win, but in real life was total stopout. Wonder if this sort
of thing would alter all backtesting stats. that have been done by cgrey and others. Just a thought.

Geoff...
Sure - any difference in the actual order open as compared to what the order open should have been could cause a difference. Backtesting is done from data. There's no way to account for getting in late if you're clicking buttons, being slipped, etc... It's one reason I've never relied on backtesting for anything more than determining if the system is "worthy" of forward testing in demo. I know there are many people out there that consider backtesting to be the be-all and end-all when evaluating a system. I disagree, but to each his own...
  • #423
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:11am Feb 18, 2011 10:11am
Thanks for quick reply cgrey, wonder if an EA would do it any faster.
Geoff
  • #424
  • Edited 10:27am Feb 18, 2011 10:14am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting GEOFFREY62
Thanks for quick reply cgrey, wonder if an EA would do it any faster.
Geoff
This is one of the rare cases I'd recommend an EA - takes the guesswork and errors out. There's still always the chance of being slipped, but when the only decision that needs to be made is which direction to trade (no interpretation of any indicators), an EA makes sense. There's one out there (check post #61).
  • #425
  • Edited 11:16am Feb 18, 2011 10:52am | Edited 11:16am
Don't want to harp too much on the EA subject, but have a question: anyone find the EA doesn't work as planned? I tried EA's long time ago (when I was a beginner ) and woke up many times to see my EA was made inactive overnight (like almost always). Sometimes my platform was disconnected or even shut down. I know it wasn't my computer or internet. When it comes to internet and computer I always have a relatively new machine and latest modem. These were the days when I used to be with Forex.com UK (Gain Capital). Funny thing was it would never happen when I didn't have an EA running. I feel like the broker has a way to shut down your EA if it is profitable. Maybe this just depends on the broker, but when so many brokers offer MT4 and promote EA's I wonder why?
  • #426
  • Feb 18, 2011 11:39am Feb 18, 2011 11:39am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Don't want to harp too much on the EA subject, but have a question: anyone find the EA doesn't work as planned? I tried EA's long time ago (when I was a beginner ) and woke up many times to see my EA was made inactive overnight (like almost always). Sometimes my platform was disconnected or even shut down. I know it wasn't my computer or internet. When it comes to internet and computer I always have a relatively new machine and latest modem. These were the days when I used to be with Forex.com UK (Gain Capital). Funny thing was it would never...
Yeah, the broker plays a big part. And therein lies the problem - most brokers that use/support MT4, I would put on my "never use live' list. Whether they choose to or not, brokers can absolutely manipulate MT4 and your trades placed through it (whether they were placed by EA or manually). I'll stiop here, before this rapidly deterioates into a discussion about any specific broker. The short answer - yes, they can, and some do, mess with your trades. But a small few more reputable brokers (that I personally would trust) have begun offering MT4 lately.
  • #427
  • Feb 18, 2011 12:45pm Feb 18, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting GEOFFREY62
Well I like to think I am fairly quick on the trigger finger but on my broker(Alpari UK) today, by the time I had clicked on sell, ok for confirmation, my entry price was 1.61987 with stop at 1.62187. Got stopped out at that for -20pips. However actual open of candle on my chart was 1.62007 and high was 1.62198 so on back test or just eyeballing charts this would seem like small win, but in real life was total stopout. Wonder if this sort
of thing would alter all backtesting stats. that have been done by cgrey and others. Just a thought.

Geoff...
I have had a similar entry as well manually trading this in UK (Capital Spreads). My entry price was 1.61979 timed at 08:00:04. However, my SL is set at 22 (I have added the spread) and therefore able to close at 09:23:21 with a small profit of 11.5 pips. It was a good job I didn't hang around any further .

I have a slight bullish bias on GBP/USD at present, which means it is difficult for me to go against my instincts and go "short"; however it paid off today. Naturally it could have resulted in a total loss as it came very close to my SL. I guess we need to celebrate our successes too to keep our sanity in this business.

Have a nice weekend everyone.
  • #428
  • Feb 18, 2011 2:26pm Feb 18, 2011 2:26pm
Hi Guys,

I'm currently backtesting manually year 2001. So far, results are curiously very bad: up to August, only 2 positive months (10% and 3.5%). The other months stand between -10 and -18%. Will post detailled results once finalised, but it may takes some time....

JP
  • #429
  • Feb 18, 2011 3:27pm Feb 18, 2011 3:27pm
Quoting Phiksalamuk
Hi Guys,

I'm currently backtesting manually year 2001. So far, results are curiously very bad: up to August, only 2 positive months (10% and 3.5%). The other months stand between -10 and -18%. Will post detailled results once finalised, but it may takes some time....

JP
I've gotta be honest... Whatever the results for 2001 are, being 10-years ago, it won't mean much to me, at least.

Again, make your own decisions regarding the importance of backtesting to you. For me, the only value in it is to get us to the forward testing stage. What happened 10 years ago isn't likely to happen today. What happens today isn't likely to still be happening in 10 years. I usually cut off my backtests around 3-4 years, and make my decision to move forward based on that.
  • #430
  • Feb 18, 2011 3:59pm Feb 18, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting cgrey
I've gotta be honest... Whatever the results for 2001 are, being 10-years ago, it won't mean much to me, at least.

Again, make your own decisions regarding the importance of backtesting to you. For me, the only value in it is to get us to the forward testing stage. What happened 10 years ago isn't likely to happen today. What happens today isn't likely to still be happening in 10 years. I usually cut off my backtests around 3-4 years, and make my decision to move forward based on that.
For what it's worth, anything that happened prior to the 2008 economic meltdown is ancient history. We live in a different environment today.
  • #431
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:04pm Feb 18, 2011 4:04pm
Yea 2001 was a whole other world. Forex has changed alot since then and like cgrey said it will continue to change. We hope to exploit something that gives us an edge and then change as it changes. If the party comes to end then we move to another party.
  • #432
  • Feb 18, 2011 6:22pm Feb 18, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting GEOFFREY62
Well I like to think I am fairly quick on the trigger finger but on my broker(Alpari UK) today, by the time I had clicked on sell, ok for confirmation, my entry price was 1.61987 with stop at 1.62187. Got stopped out at that for -20pips. However actual open of candle on my chart was 1.62007 and high was 1.62198 so on back test or just eyeballing charts this would seem like small win, but in real life was total stopout. Wonder if this sort
of thing would alter all backtesting stats. that have been done by cgrey and others....
Instead of using your live entry price, you can try MT4 price and then you can use your broker's spread to add on entry price (it seems you didn't add spread on today's trade). Because especially at 8:00 GMT, since the London market is opened, the moves are pretty quick and you may have slippage compared to ideal entry price which should be the MT4 platform where backtests and forward test are done, IMO. By using IBFX and Oanda (adding 2.2 pips spread) combo, today's trade wasn't stopped out and was a winner.
  • #433
  • Feb 19, 2011 3:40am Feb 19, 2011 3:40am
Quoting cgrey
I've gotta be honest... Whatever the results for 2001 are, being 10-years ago, it won't mean much to me, at least.

Again, make your own decisions regarding the importance of backtesting to you. For me, the only value in it is to get us to the forward testing stage. What happened 10 years ago isn't likely to happen today. What happens today isn't likely to still be happening in 10 years. I usually cut off my backtests around 3-4 years, and make my decision to move forward based on that.
Yes. Makes sense... I would however definitely use max drawdawn per month in my MM.
  • #434
  • Feb 19, 2011 5:13am Feb 19, 2011 5:13am
I have created a new spreadsheet for people who would like to trade this strategy manually. The same spreadsheet can also be used for manual back testing purposes as well. I automated as much as I can.

I would like senior pros like CGrey et al to have a quick look at it and tell me whether they would like to see any other information incorporated into this spreadsheet.

Needless to say, I created this spreadsheet for my personal use and therefore take no responsibility for any errors or omissions if others decide to use it.


Thank you.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls CABLE DAILY.xls   78 KB | 423 downloads
  • #435
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:23am Feb 19, 2011 6:23am
Quoting Rasi
I have created a new spreadsheet for people who would like to trade this strategy manually. The same spreadsheet can also be used for manual back testing purposes as well. I automated as much as I can.

I would like senior pros like CGrey et al to have a quick look at it and tell me whether they would like to see any other information incorporated into this spreadsheet.

Needless to say, I created this spreadsheet for my personal use and therefore take no responsibility for any errors or omissions if others decide to use it.


Thank you.
excellent work. very good tool for ppl like me who are trading manually
  • #436
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:42am Feb 19, 2011 8:42am
Quoting Rasi
I have created a new spreadsheet for people who would like to trade this strategy manually.
Very nice - looks really good. I'm sure a lot of folks will benefit from this.
  • #437
  • Feb 19, 2011 1:03pm Feb 19, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting Rasi
I have created a new spreadsheet for people who would like to trade this strategy manually. The same spreadsheet can also be used for manual back testing purposes as well. I automated as much as I can.

I would like senior pros like CGrey et al to have a quick look at it and tell me whether they would like to see any other information incorporated into this spreadsheet.

Needless to say, I created this spreadsheet for my personal use and therefore take no responsibility for any errors or omissions if others decide to use it.


Thank you.
Good stuff Rasi, thanks. Just want to update a couple things on there, I think stop loss was triggered more than once, right? I also see the close price (9 GMT) for 2/18/11 is blank, but that can be calculated easily obviously. Thanks again.
  • #438
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:38am Feb 20, 2011 7:38am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Good stuff Rasi, thanks. Just want to update a couple things on there, I think stop loss was triggered more than once, right? I also see the close price (9 GMT) for 2/18/11 is blank, but that can be calculated easily obviously. Thanks again.
Thank you for your feedback. I have corrected the missing data issues and also added a new tab for March 2011. I hope this helps. Please see the attachment.

As I do not want this thread to be hijacked with my spreadsheet, I would appreciate if anyone want any further info on it to send me a private message instead. I'll do my best to help outside this very useful thread.

Kind regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls CABLE DAILY v3.xls   133 KB | 349 downloads
  • #439
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:57am Feb 20, 2011 8:57am
hi Rasi,
looks interesting, I have tried to change Account balance cell content, it is protected, need password?
thanks
zevik
  • #440
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:07am Feb 20, 2011 9:07am
Quoting Rasi
As I do not want this thread to be hijacked with my spreadsheet, I would appreciate if anyone want any further info on it to send me a private message instead.

Quoting zevik
hi Rasi,
looks interesting, I have tried to change Account balance cell content, it is protected, need password?
thanks
zevik
Did you miss this sentence directly above your post?
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