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AUD/USD

  • #28,141
  • Feb 17, 2011 8:03pm Feb 17, 2011 8:03pm
area to consider the short side
  • #28,142
  • Feb 17, 2011 8:04pm Feb 17, 2011 8:04pm
its better with a chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #28,143
  • Feb 17, 2011 8:28pm Feb 17, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
I'm looking for a breakout out of this channel, either up or down. Currently looking for a downside move but I will take a long if it breaks to the upside.

Any thoughts?

http://420trader.net/wp-content/uplo...d-1hr-2-18.jpg



Ah the image came out so big I had to resize it. If it's hard to see you can see it here:

http://420trader.net/?p=866
Not saying I will not short this thing again... But it will have to above 1.0200 and then at least 2 consecutive red 4hr candles. Shorts are a killer on this pair. When you hold short for a week to get 100 pips, you are getting you ass handed to you with intrest charges. Any short other than an intraday scalp is just not worth it to me right now.

Regards,
  • #28,144
  • Feb 17, 2011 8:30pm Feb 17, 2011 8:30pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD - strong resistance zone.png Size: 22 KB
  • #28,145
  • Feb 17, 2011 8:37pm Feb 17, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Not saying I will not short this thing again... But it will have to above 1.0200 and then at least 2 consecutive red 4hr candles. Shorts are a killer on this pair. When you hold short for a week to get 100 pips, you are getting you ass handed to you with intrest charges. Any short other than an intraday scalp is just not worth it to me right now.

Regards,
Thanks for the reply.

I agree with shorts hurting with interest charges. My trades tend not to last for more than a day or two.

Will keep my eyes on the charts and update if I follow through with a position.
  • #28,146
  • Feb 17, 2011 9:12pm Feb 17, 2011 9:12pm
Quoting Velywrong
He is using his panasonic scientific calculator to reassure himself of his 0.86 level 4 target.
yes, where is our dear friend and his postings these days? I do need to see his post as a contrarian indicator before I have the confidence to long the AUSD for the umpteen time. It is 1.0126 now.
  • #28,147
  • Feb 17, 2011 11:22pm Feb 17, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting Amanda2
yes, where is our dear friend and his postings these days? I do need to see his post as a contrarian indicator before I have the confidence to long the AUSD for the umpteen time. It is 1.0126 now.
Licking his wounds probably...

He will emerge to post his bearish outlook and analysis whenever AUD retraces.
  • #28,148
  • Feb 17, 2011 11:41pm Feb 17, 2011 11:41pm
Quoting clc4x
Attachment
Seem the short term technicals point north but I'd say the pair is finding itself in a bull technical maze balanced on a resource driven fundamental tightrope. South appears the less risky mid and longer term trade.
  • #28,149
  • Feb 18, 2011 2:29am Feb 18, 2011 2:29am
I'm looking for a breakout out of this channel, either up or down. Currently looking for a downside move but I will take a long if it breaks to the upside.

Any thoughts?

http://420trader.net/wp-content/uplo...d-1hr-2-18.jpg



Ah the image came out so big I had to resize it. If it's hard to see you can see it here:

http://420trader.net/?p=866


reposting this because i really want to get in on this breakout
  • #28,150
  • Feb 18, 2011 3:12am Feb 18, 2011 3:12am
Yes, agreed on breakout. Still, only long for me today.
We should see some more gains in AUD.

AUDCAD is also on the same side. Still, if this nest there is going to be stronger - as also in AUDUSD 1.020, then we can see a retrace at least to 1,0055. But not really betting on this. Like the Carry also Next level is around 1,0180.

AUDUSD buy 1.0113
TP 1.0183
SL 1.0083
0,30%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #28,151
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:16am Feb 18, 2011 4:16am
Even that didn't phase the Oz much. PBOC Reserve Ratio Increase.
  • #28,152
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:36am Feb 18, 2011 4:36am
audusd h1 wave count
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD - Primary Analysis - Feb-18 1121 AM (1 hour).png Size: 51 KB
  • #28,153
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:44am Feb 18, 2011 9:44am
Hard to believe we are only going to make a 50 pip range today. Maybe we'll see some action into London close. Still holding long for 1.0175. Would love to buy a dip towards 1.0070 is given the chance. Good trades to all!

Regards,
  • #28,154
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:06am Feb 18, 2011 10:06am
Quoting Velywrong
He is using his panasonic scientific calculator to reassure himself of his 0.86 level 4 target.
I think that just because of such geniuses an iggy option was introduced here and believe me, it works wonderfully. I never have to read that crap again. Still, I would expect that he finally blew his account again and thus shut up for ever.
  • #28,155
  • Feb 18, 2011 11:53am Feb 18, 2011 11:53am
Title: AUD/USD intraday: consolidation.Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 1.014

Our preference: Short @ 1.0116 with targets @ 1.0075 & 1.0055 in extension.




Now that's more like it. My broker recommendations back to being a fantastic contra-indicator. Keep up the good work, guys!

Regards,
  • #28,156
  • Feb 18, 2011 12:22pm Feb 18, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Title: AUD/USD intraday: consolidation.Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 1.014

Our preference: Short @ 1.0116 with targets @ 1.0075 & 1.0055 in extension.




Now that's more like it. My broker recommendations back to being a fantastic contra-indicator. Keep up the good work, guys!

Regards,
lol dude
went back to short now at 1.0152
daily + weekly resistance.. for what it's still worth

usdx went southside all week but is in an uptrend channel on the 4h tf,
so i expect continuation of that direction.
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #28,157
  • Feb 18, 2011 1:41pm Feb 18, 2011 1:41pm
Don't mean to chicken out, but I am moving my stop up from 9970 to 1.0105. Holding for TP level of 1.0175, but that is damn near the downward sloping trend line, do I am moving TP down 10 pips to 1.0165. Either way, this has been a nice trade. If my TP is hit, I may break out my Jeff Buckley "Hallelujah" cd again. Been a while since I have done that. Maybe I am getting my goove back. Good trades to all!

Regards,
  • #28,158
  • Feb 18, 2011 8:26pm Feb 18, 2011 8:26pm
Made enough pips on the up aswell as down...don't have time to post all the time, like many of the nobjockular traders.
Have been in RIO since the 8th/9th...got rid today for 285 pips per £...PATIENCE
Looking to get straight back in, if poss..but somehow, i think China will see the end of the miners stock bubble...along with the A$!

Understand the arguement of the short side with the £1.75 interest on one holding.
Thats why the positions are good small...until the drip...drip...BANG!

No doubt the correction is due, which is why i maintain my Level 4 target to 0.8600-0.8900. Obviously, this target is not a day trade, but once in the zone..one can expect a retrace below 0.9000 pdq!

Remember...he who laughs last..
Safe investing

Aussy$ correction due to a more realistic worth! Shorts in...Option in...!...Target 0.8600

http://twurl.nl/zt7wz8
  • #28,159
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:42pm Feb 18, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting ely
Made enough pips on the up aswell as down...don't have time to post all the time, like many of the nobjockular traders.
Have been in RIO since the 8th/9th...got rid today for 285 pips per £...PATIENCE
Looking to get straight back in, if poss..but somehow, i think China will see the end of the miners stock bubble...along with the A$!

Understand the arguement of the short side with the £1.75 interest on one holding.
Thats why the positions are good small...until the drip...drip...BANG!

No doubt the correction is due, which is why i maintain...
what is the target for long-term,?
Your target price is far from now, what makes you a target,?
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #28,160
  • Feb 19, 2011 4:20am Feb 19, 2011 4:20am
Quoting andelumut
what is the target for long-term,?
Your target price is far from now, what makes you a target,?

Some are predicting it to touch 1.02, some have 1.05 and some more...but these like many remain "predictions".

http://twurl.nl/k0bma7
What is not a prediction, ultimately remains fact, and the A$ remains way over-valued by many senior strategist calculations. This is all about timing, even though many have this pair over-valued since September 2010..its now over parity!
http://twurl.nl/on1bvk

Basic trading concept teaches you, what goes up MUST come down. Nothing goes up in a straight line.
Many analyst are calling a retest of 0.95/0.97, then another leg up, before a more serious drop.

China has tightened monetary stance, upping the pace of hiking Banking Reserves and Interest, and these are set to gather further pace, as the CPI goes out of control. Being the Australians major trading partner...any cut in commercial activity, interest rates or anything negative, is all this pair needs to accelerate and retrace below 0.8600.


http://twurl.nl/es63oc

The PBOC raised benchmark lending and deposit interest rates earlier this month. It raised the reserve requirement ratio six times and benchmark interest rates twice in 2010. The last reserve ratio hike took effect January 20.

"Beijing was relatively slow to start normalising monetary policy over 2010 and this contributed to the recent acceleration in headline inflation. But policy makers have definitely picked up the pace in the last few months, and today's move is the latest sign of this increased sense of urgency," said Brian Jackson, an economist from the Royal Bank of Canada.

Latest data showed the consumer-price index rose 4.9 per cent last month, up from 4.6 per cent in December -- with food price inflation remaining at around 10 per cent -- and economists say they expect the CPI to rise further in February due to an increase in demand during the Lunar New Year holiday.

Mr Jackson said he expects more policy tightening in the coming months, including additional increases in interest rates and a faster pace of currency appreciation.
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