How much time have you wasted on systems? | Forex Factory

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How much time have you wasted on systems?

  • Poll

  • How much time have you wasted on testing the systems( since you started forex)
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  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 12, 2011 5:21am Feb 12, 2011 5:21am
Just interested in doing a survey, There are certainly many systems out there and i am one of the many that actually tested many changed many systems and wasted a lot of time in system hopping until i finally found a system that is suitable for me which i can build consistent profits with.

i wasted i think too much time finding systems testing them and learning them. So i am just curious if there is a manual backtest of 1 or 2 year to see the potential of the system first before trying the system will it be better for new traders?
  • #2
  • Feb 14, 2011 6:01am Feb 14, 2011 6:01am
Quoting AngelineW
Just interested in doing a survey, There are certainly many systems out there and i am one of the many that actually tested many changed many systems and wasted a lot of time in system hopping until i finally found a system that is suitable for me which i can build consistent profits with.

i wasted i think too much time finding systems testing them and learning them. So i am just curious if there is a manual backtest of 1 or 2 year to see the potential of the system first before trying the system will it be better for new traders?
Man, your question is wrong from the beginning. Trying to analyze a system is not "wasting of time"!!! Yes, system can be bad. But when you testing it, you gettin deep understanding of how it works, or why it doesn't. Every bad system gets you closer to your one profitable strategy. How many times did Bell tried to make a light ball?! How many time did he make it wrong way. Was that waste of time! I don't think so!
  • #3
  • Feb 14, 2011 6:10am Feb 14, 2011 6:10am
My time spent on various systems are absolutely not wasted. I tried them and learnt from them and reasoned why they didn't work for me. These systems all helped me develop my own strategy.
  • #4
  • Feb 14, 2011 2:35pm Feb 14, 2011 2:35pm
I wasted a lot of time in not properly testing systems. And I wasted a lot of time in trying to develop the correct "trading psychology".

It's not a question of suitability, it's a question of long-term profitability. And that you can only find out through thorough research.

It strikes me that many newbies just trade a system for a few weeks to months and think they really tested a system. Any statistics book will tell you that you can only find out a long-term significance with 10,000 data points, which equals to 10,000 trades. Test a system 10,000 trades long, then you got a rough expectancy of a system.

cheers and good luck!
  • #5
  • Feb 14, 2011 8:05pm Feb 14, 2011 8:05pm
If you have spend time on systems by trying them, reading them, trading them and still NOT PROFITING, yes you have wasted your time.
  • #6
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:24am Feb 15, 2011 2:24am
Quoting The7
If you have spend time on systems by trying them, reading them, trading them and still NOT PROFITING, yes you have wasted your time.
I dont really see this as wasting time. At least you know that this system will not work for you. But if you donīt know why this system doesnīt work for you, you have wasted your time.
  • #7
  • Feb 15, 2011 9:08am Feb 15, 2011 9:08am
Quoting The7
If you have spend time on systems by trying them, reading them, trading them and still NOT PROFITING, yes you have wasted your time.
Let's go away from word "waste". Waste and testing can't stay in one line, so calm down. I don't understand. All here are clever people. How you, traders, can say wasting instead of investing!!!
  • #8
  • Feb 15, 2011 5:06pm Feb 15, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting Custos
I wasted a lot of time in not properly testing systems. And I wasted a lot of time in trying to develop the correct "trading psychology".

It's not a question of suitability, it's a question of long-term profitability. And that you can only find out through thorough research.

It strikes me that many newbies just trade a system for a few weeks to months and think they really tested a system. Any statistics book will tell you that you can only find out a long-term significance with 10,000 data points, which equals to 10,000 trades. Test a system...
10,000 trades to test a system? Come on think about that statement, no way, sorry.
  • #9
  • Feb 15, 2011 5:09pm Feb 15, 2011 5:09pm
Time spent "learning" about all the different ways to trade profitably is not wasted time IMHO, test them all to see what works best for you.
  • #10
  • Feb 15, 2011 11:48pm Feb 15, 2011 11:48pm
Quoting jag1966
10,000 trades to test a system? Come on think about that statement, no way, sorry.
yes, I thought about it. What is standard in science and academic research should also be standard in trading research. 10,000 data points is minimum.
  • #11
  • Feb 16, 2011 3:10am Feb 16, 2011 3:10am
Quoting Custos
yes, I thought about it. What is standard in science and academic research should also be standard in trading research. 10,000 data points is minimum.
If you were given a trading system that a trader proved had a 70% win rate, why would you need to test it 10,000 times?

Apply a few filters to any price pattern and the win rate increases, only trade with the trend etc.

I agree we have to test and test but 10,000 times is nonsense.
  • #12
  • Feb 16, 2011 10:15am Feb 16, 2011 10:15am
Quoting jag1966
If you were given a trading system that a trader proved had a 70% win rate, why would you need to test it 10,000 times?
First of all, any so-called "proof" does in the digital world not exist. Probably if he had a notarized bank statement, I would believe it, and even that you can fake.
I would need to test it 10,000 times to verify that his proof and that the probabilities he talks about are real. It's all about verification.
Quoting jag1966
Apply a few filters to any price pattern and the win rate increases, only trade with the trend etc.
And concerning filters, most of them are not increasing win-rates, they might just decrease the amounts of trades you take, but overall the win-loss ratio will stay the same or even slightly decrease....
Of course, it depends which filters we talk about, but most of them are not useful. But for example trading with the trend, as you mentioned, does indeed increase win-ratios.
Quoting jag1966
I agree we have to test and test but 10,000 times is nonsense.
Well, then it seems you can teach all the professors and researchers out there who try to statistically validate phenomena and theories, that they are completely wrong, and that all their research methods are complete nonesense. I don't understand how you can say that it is nonesense to apply statistically sound research methods to trading. And 10,000 data points is a minimum requirement for any statistical analysis.
  • #13
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:43pm Feb 16, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting Custos
First of all, any so-called "proof" does in the digital world not exist. Probably if he had a notarized bank statement, I would believe it, and even that you can fake.
I would need to test it 10,000 times to verify that his proof and that the probabilities he talks about are real. It's all about verification.
Here you go again, it was the assumption that 10,000 test have to be done to test a trading strategy is valid that made me respond with nonsense.

Now you are saying there can be no proof of performance. More nonsense.

Of course profitable traders can supply proof, the guy who mentored me did so and not only that, he also called trades live in front of a dozen of us almost every day for a year.

As for statistcal analysis, it doesn't interest me and I have no need for it in my life, all I know is if I find a trading method that I like the look of it takes far less than 10,000 trades to validate it or not.
  • #14
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:49pm Feb 16, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting jag1966
Here you go again, it was the assumption that 10,000 test have to be done to test a trading strategy is valid that made me respond with nonsense.

Now you are saying there can be no proof of performance. More nonsense.

Of course profitable traders can supply proof, the guy who mentored me did so and not only that, he also called trades live in front of a dozen of us almost every day for a year.
everybody can have a lucky streak. It is consistency we should strive for, and that only comes from testing a strategy over various market conditions & instruments. Nothing comes for free in this world, and research is the only way to find the truth.

Well, I don't wanna argue further anyways. You have your opinion and I have mine.
  • #15
  • Feb 17, 2011 7:56am Feb 17, 2011 7:56am
I usually give one month every system. If I can't make it work for me, I keep looking for my personal holy grail.!
  • #16
  • Feb 17, 2011 6:22pm Feb 17, 2011 6:22pm
I would agree. I've been following many of the threads in Forexfactory for over a year. And I usually try out a system for about a month before deciding whether or not its working for me sometimes moving on to another within only a couple of weeks. I don't consider this a waste of time. Learning is fundamental. You'll never improve if your not learning new things.
  • #17
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:27pm Feb 20, 2011 9:27pm
The more I think the more I realise that I would be way better spending 10 months trying to improve 1 system than spending 1 month each on 10 different systems. The later hasn't worked well for me so I believe its time for change
  • #18
  • Feb 21, 2011 12:47am Feb 21, 2011 12:47am
After years of trying testing systems and although I did learn something from all the tests, a lot of it was purely a wast of time.

What I decided that I wouldn't even look at a system unless it had some out of the box thinking about it. I mean I wouldn't test another simple indicator based system again as I believe they just don't work, especially if automated.

In the end I ended up building upon idea's learned previously, identify weaknesses and build from there.
  • #19
  • Feb 21, 2011 2:05am Feb 21, 2011 2:05am
Quoting JohnFX_King
Let's go away from word "waste". Waste and testing can't stay in one line, so calm down. I don't understand. All here are clever people. How you, traders, can say wasting instead of investing!!!
I'm not agree! There are many systems on the market made by marketers not by real developer. That systems was made just to look good and have some positive backtest results. When you try to analyze them you waste your time as you will not find any useful for yourself.
  • #20
  • Feb 23, 2011 3:14am Feb 23, 2011 3:14am
the most time you need to control emotions. there are many profitable systems.
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