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vsa with Malcolm

  • #12,681
  • Feb 16, 2011 7:12am Feb 16, 2011 7:12am
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi all,
I can see a clear case of a dearth of buyers on GU 30min tf.
I suggest taking a short at the close of this 30min bar and TP @ 1.6010
Bar already ended.
I exited my sell trade.
Now pending short at 1.6077
Happy trading!
  • #12,682
  • Feb 16, 2011 7:23am Feb 16, 2011 7:23am
Quoting forexcompoun
I exited my sell trade.
Now pending short at 1.6077
Happy trading!
Impatient me!

Okay, I took EURJPY short @ 113.13 instead TP 112.40
Happy trading!
  • #12,683
  • Feb 16, 2011 7:23am Feb 16, 2011 7:23am
Quoting Musashi
Do you imply need to see price going up? That is more demand that supply?
Let's say a down bar with average spread has huge volume compared to previous and the next bar closes up. That means there were buyers present. To have huge volume and not move very much is an indication that a counter move could happen.

GU today wouldn't really fit the description as the spread is wide and so the volume is very high. This is selling. Even the next bar is down. But what is interesting is that the spread is narrowing and volume is less. This might not indicate buying but the selling pressure is lessening.

The third down bar made almost no progress to the downside and is not quite low volume compared to previous bars. And it just so happens that we approached channel bottom.

Next bar is up but volume is very low. That tells me there's little interest to the upside at this moment OR sellers just aren't interested. Next bar is again up but the volume is higher while the spread remains almost the same. This raises suspicion that maybe there's still supply present. Next bar closes down but volume is very low and in fact lowest during this move. To me that is no supply or testing to see whether there are still sellers present.

I'm not really a pure VSA trader so I call no supply and tests in VSA tests.

Now the next bars while they are down bars, volume is higher than the previous test bar with closes near the highs. This to me indicates that sellers didn't do anything and are not interested to sell at this level and buyers should be coming in.

As for how I'd like to see demand manifest itself is wider spreads to the upside on ascending but not extreme volume. Entry on a low volume down bar with next bar being up. So a stop below the low volume bar and entry just above it. So far I haven't seen demand.

Having said all that I'm looking more at 1h or 4h timeframe these days to judge the market as I got a bit burned out from lower TFs.

Also VSA doesn't teach to catch falling knives as some seem to think. On the contrary, it teaches how to find the safest possible entries and avoid chasing the market. While you give a portion of profits away this way, you get safest entries in return. Advanced traders may attempt to bottom or top pick once in a while but that is because they are disciplined and have been in the markets for a long time.
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  • #12,684
  • Feb 16, 2011 8:30am Feb 16, 2011 8:30am
Quoting Musashi
Listen you are missing my point... you can see now on the chart where most of the volume is taking place and at what price more closely.

Now you can use this information and combine that with your usual analysis based on the VSA 5min, 15min etc

Do you think knowing where most of the volume transaction are taking place is pointless?

If so then I guess I'm wasting my time and your time.
Certainly very useful to know where the volume came in. I turn to the M1 chart to find out myself.
  • #12,685
  • Feb 16, 2011 8:57am Feb 16, 2011 8:57am
Quoting duyk20
I don't get it. Weakness is still very much out there, but price action look like a weirdo, normally, price would have rocket downwards. Guess it's not ready yet. Move SL to BE.

Edit 1 hour later: Thank Intel, it rockets up like mad later hit SL @ BE. Happy
Well done, I'm glad you didn't lose on the trade. A good example of trading what you see NOT what you expect.
  • #12,686
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:06am Feb 16, 2011 9:06am
I traded today what i expected not what i saw..and lost 35 pips
Work smart not hard
  • #12,687
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:12am Feb 16, 2011 9:12am
Quoting Intel
Well done, I'm glad you didn't lose on the trade. A good example of trading what you see NOT what you expect.
Well, sorry Intel, I let you down, just made a loose trade on Cable as I expect it goes up after seeing stopping volume..

Quoting Intel
Certainly very useful to know where the volume came in. I turn to the M1 chart to find out myself.
Very good point, I think I've learnt something, Intel. This certainly can be used to scale out possible trade in small consolidation period in 5m after stopping volume. Is it?
  • #12,688
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:16am Feb 16, 2011 9:16am
Quoting duyk20
Well, sorry Intel, I let you down, just made a loose trade on Cable as I expect it goes up after seeing stopping volume..



Very good point, I think I've learnt something, Intel. This certainly can be used to scale out possible trade in small consolidation period in 5m after stopping volume. Is it?
How you use the levels is a personal thing. The importance is in the knowing they are there.
  • #12,689
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:24am Feb 16, 2011 9:24am
Quoting Fudomyo
It's contingent on how you're filtering time data. Applying RBs to tick data or second fractions can reduce the noise ratio and false signals common on a raw 1M.
Anything that can improve your accuracy when determining these areas is always helpfull. I use M1 because I know what I'm doing with it and am happy with the results I get from it. If I were having problems in this area, I certainly wouldn't rule out RBs.
  • #12,690
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:31am Feb 16, 2011 9:31am
It's very nice analysis. Keep on coming.


Quoting comapip
Let's say a down bar with average spread has huge volume compared to previous and the next bar closes up. That means there were buyers present. To have huge volume and not move very much is an indication that a counter move could happen.

GU today wouldn't really fit the description as the spread is wide and so the volume is very high. This is selling. Even the next bar is down. But what is interesting is that the spread is narrowing and volume is less. This might not indicate buying but the selling pressure is lessening.

The third down bar made...
  • #12,691
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:45am Feb 16, 2011 9:45am
eur/usd m10
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  • #12,692
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:51am Feb 16, 2011 9:51am
AU M5

Short opportunity, chart to follow
  • #12,693
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:59am Feb 16, 2011 9:59am
Quoting Intel
AU M5

Short opportunity, chart to follow
Chart, a bit late sorry. I'm a bit out of practice with annotating
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  • #12,694
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:59am Feb 16, 2011 9:59am
Quoting Intel
AU M5

Short opportunity, chart to follow
Noooooo!!! I'm long on her!!!
  • #12,695
  • Feb 16, 2011 10:03am Feb 16, 2011 10:03am
focus on eur.

not much to comment here. all i need to say is that we have a pretty lovely 4hr spring here which did some nice stophunting.

i am happy to be long before i miss the departure for 3600++

looks like brian sack and the gang of financial cirminals won't have nice words for usd later.

http://i.imgur.com/ng0pX.png
  • #12,696
  • Feb 16, 2011 10:13am Feb 16, 2011 10:13am
The Gu was bought again off of 6000 making for a wild day. I am still very bullish on GU and think we may have seen a sucker drop on the pair. The chart posted is 5 min and I very much like a break of 6055 for a long entry. I will be watching this like a hawk, much like traders expecting hawkish comment from certain bankers last night on GU. The ? mark is not for wtf, its meant for are you showing us your hand that easy. We shall see, FOMC minutes later still.
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  • #12,697
  • Feb 16, 2011 10:16am Feb 16, 2011 10:16am
Quoting Intel
Chart, a bit late sorry. I'm a bit out of practice with annotating
Normal TP hit with ease

Hope some of you traded it.
  • #12,698
  • Feb 16, 2011 10:19am Feb 16, 2011 10:19am
Quoting Intel
Normal TP hit with ease

Hope some of you traded it.
No but thanks. I did not notice the ut and could get out with a small profit.
  • #12,699
  • Feb 16, 2011 10:22am Feb 16, 2011 10:22am
Congratulations!

Just remind you revise your signature.

Quoting Intel
Normal TP hit with ease

Hope some of you traded it.
  • #12,700
  • Feb 16, 2011 10:34am Feb 16, 2011 10:34am
Quoting polomine
Congratulations!

Just remind you revise your signature.
Thanks but I'm not trading right now. It was one for the gang. Nice to see you here Polo.
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