The main reason I would think about using the 10% +/- and restart rule is because I would feel like I am not staying consistent if I didn't make the trade everyday. Kinda like I was picking and choosing trades just because the calendar says its a new month.
I really like the business approach though cgrey. Makes me want to go out and get a loan for $50k
As long as whatever rules you use produce positive results then you should be happy.
I really like the business approach though cgrey. Makes me want to go out and get a loan for $50k
As long as whatever rules you use produce positive results then you should be happy.
I think it is possible that resetting your target will help you gain extra profit from the month. I have tested this on a handful on months and found it to hold out but it's hardly conclusive testing.
There are other way to increase the profit from the system and I have changed this strategy enough now for it to be confusing to others to post here what I have decided to forward test. I will however say the only way I have found this to be consistently profitable for me is to limit the drawdown in losing months. I believe this is necessary regardless of your chosen target.
Remember if we lose 20% in January and make 20% in February we are still 4% down from the start of the year. If you go back through history you will see as cgrey has mentioned that there are many months where we lose (much of the last half of 2009 from memory).
The key I believe, (as is true generally) is simply to cut the losers and let the winners run, 10% gain per month is a figure cgrey has settled on, and has hinted that his figure is no doubt different for each trader.
cgrey has provided us with an edge (the 12 / 8 GMT candles) and a framework to profit from this (monthly targets). It is now up to us as individuals to profit based on our finances / risk tolerance / preferences etc. For example in my testing I am choosing to leave profits in the account to compound, you may choose to make a fixed / variable withdrawal at the end of each month. There are many factors that will affect how much money you win or lose on this or any system!
dave.
There are other way to increase the profit from the system and I have changed this strategy enough now for it to be confusing to others to post here what I have decided to forward test. I will however say the only way I have found this to be consistently profitable for me is to limit the drawdown in losing months. I believe this is necessary regardless of your chosen target.
Remember if we lose 20% in January and make 20% in February we are still 4% down from the start of the year. If you go back through history you will see as cgrey has mentioned that there are many months where we lose (much of the last half of 2009 from memory).
The key I believe, (as is true generally) is simply to cut the losers and let the winners run, 10% gain per month is a figure cgrey has settled on, and has hinted that his figure is no doubt different for each trader.
cgrey has provided us with an edge (the 12 / 8 GMT candles) and a framework to profit from this (monthly targets). It is now up to us as individuals to profit based on our finances / risk tolerance / preferences etc. For example in my testing I am choosing to leave profits in the account to compound, you may choose to make a fixed / variable withdrawal at the end of each month. There are many factors that will affect how much money you win or lose on this or any system!
dave.
Good stuff here Dave. Since the market is always changing, it can't be solved like a puzzle, but the more familiar we are with it the more likely we are to succeed.
This is currently the biggest question I have with this system. Is it profitable (or most profitable) in the long run only shooting for 10% then stopping. What is the best way to get the most out of this system in a month. In my opinion, if the mm is good enough to shoot for 10% then why stop there? The big question for me is at what target do I want to recalculate the next target...
I like your analogy of a puzzle, my puzzle currently is why I am unable to profit with this system before Jan 2007! What changed in the market around this date, what triggered it, and is a reversal on it's way?
cgrey has provided us with an edge (the 12 / 8 GMT candles) and a framework to profit from this (monthly targets). It is now up to us as individuals to profit based on our finances / risk tolerance / preferences etc. For example in my testing I am choosing to leave profits in the account to compound, you may choose to make a fixed / variable withdrawal at the end of each month. There are many factors that will affect how much money you win or lose on this or any system!
If you go back through history you will see as cgrey has mentioned that there are many months where we lose (much of the last half of 2009 from memory).
Hi, I have posted above my opinion on this above - again this is only my opinion + testing on my tweaked version of this.
I like your analogy of a puzzle, my puzzle currently is why I am unable to profit with this system before Jan 2007! What changed in the market around this date, what triggered it, and is a reversal on it's way?
"Foreign exchange trading increased by 20% between April 2007 and April 2010 and has more than doubled since 2004. The increase in turnover is due to a number of factors: the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class, the increased trading activity of high-frequency traders, and the emergence of retail investors as an important market "
A lot of new traders creating a lot of new volume. They even gave us a pretty graph
edit --- you may well be onto something with that wikipedia link here is a pdf which goes into more detail: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1012e.pdf
hope it is of interest.
- #400
- Edited 8:41pm Feb 16, 2011 5:11pm | Edited 8:41pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 6,418 Posts
