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Central Banks & Big Players

  • #5,241
  • Feb 14, 2011 2:43am Feb 14, 2011 2:43am
Quoting erikte279
Are we starting to stack our chips or WHAT?

I can feel your energy dude Notice the break from low volatility to high volatility .... only the first big candle is to be considered. It represents the end of low volatility... after we have had the big breakout ... 5-8 pips candles on the 5 sec chart become an ''usual thing'' I don't know if you understand me. That is why you have to open your charts at 3 am or 8 am exactly and hunt for the first one..
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,242
  • Feb 14, 2011 2:52am Feb 14, 2011 2:52am
the market currently owes me 10 million dollars for the time I invested into it, and I am suing it
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,243
  • Feb 14, 2011 2:54am Feb 14, 2011 2:54am
going to bed, I won't be here at 8, I've accelerated my aging by 10x by sleeping 3 hours per night
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,244
  • Feb 14, 2011 2:57am Feb 14, 2011 2:57am
I'm starting to get a little better, I do thing's differently but I like checking in every now and then to see whatsup.

When Oanda releases Mt4 I'll have to take a closer look.

Peace
Quoting Tony112
I can feel your energy dude Notice the break from low volatility to high volatility .... only the first big candle is to be considered. It represents the end of low volatility... after we have had the big breakout ... 5-8 pips candles on the 5 sec chart become an ''usual thing'' I don't know if you understand me. That is why you have to open your charts at 3 am or 8 am exactly and hunt for the first one..
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Annoying Precision
  • #5,245
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:56pm Feb 14, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting Tony112
This is one of the most beautiful things I have seen since I started trading
That was an awesome trade! Though i was already short and at b/e. Great day!
  • #5,246
  • Feb 14, 2011 6:35pm Feb 14, 2011 6:35pm
Too bad we can't get a (1 year) statistical information of a first 5-8 pips 5 sec candle success rate and its best avg pips TP, after a volatility indi BO.
r u ready?
  • #5,247
  • Feb 14, 2011 9:19pm Feb 14, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting Tony112
This is one of the most beautiful things I have seen since I started trading
Did you stay in for the 100? Nice trade.
  • #5,248
  • Feb 15, 2011 1:11am Feb 15, 2011 1:11am
I'll do my best to be as active as possible on this board during the London open.

I trade only from 11pm-1am pacific time. I find the big moves usually start here. There are big moves during the New York open but I dont have the time to trade all night.

I trade the GBP and Euro only. There's usually at least 1 big move on either of these once a week.

I aim for 100 pips and risk 10 pips max. Once the position has gone 20 pips in my favor I move my stop to break even.

I use a 30 minute chart. This gives you a good idea of whats happened the last 12 hours. You can often tell by looking at a 30 minute chart of the past 12 hrs whether or not theres going to be a big move coming up.

8 pip candles aren't as common on the Euro. I look for 10 pip moves in under a minute or less, followed by an L-shaped pattern. When trading the GBP I still look for 8 pip candles.

The GBP has been much more volatile the past 8 months. I find it harder to trade now because it can swing wildly and shake you out of your position. The Euro tends to be more uniform and easier to read.
  • #5,249
  • Feb 15, 2011 8:02pm Feb 15, 2011 8:02pm
Hi guys,

I found this post to be very interesting.
It has lead me to registrating to FF.

I see how you guys argument over spreads widening with news, speeches, opens, etc. and I thought: Isn't it as idea to hedge?

You could straddle the pair just before the event widens the spread. as you would normally enter, you now close the trade that has the wrong direction.

Please share your thought!
Great respects to all of you and Tony in particular!

Donaciello.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #5,250
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:29pm Feb 15, 2011 10:29pm
Quoting Donaciello
Hi guys,

I found this post to be very interesting.
It has lead me to registrating to FF.

I see how you guys argument over spreads widening with news, speeches, opens, etc. and I thought: Isn't it as idea to hedge?

You could straddle the pair just before the event widens the spread. as you would normally enter, you now close the trade that has the wrong direction.

Please share your thought!
Great respects to all of you and Tony in particular!


Donaciello.
Hi great introduction Don and very logical good question. I have already thought of that but here are the consequences:

The trade with the wrong direction will lose a min of 10 pips (half of the spread which is 20 during news)
Why only half? because we would enter before they widen the spreads which would give us -10. To this, we add a min of 10 pips slippage during big news... so the wrong trade will be a min of 20 pips loss during heavy news.

The trade with the right directions will already also be in disadvantage of 10 pips in it very first beginning (because of an initial 20 pips spread during news), then again we would only be halfway through that spread at -10 normally, more or less. So that gives us an exposure of a minimum of - 10x3: -30 pips hence, the news would have to have a minimum of 30 pips volatility strength for us to profit. Unfortunately, even some of the heaviest news struggle to go 30 pips before whipsawing and slipping out of control. That is why my favorite method is unknown and unexpected news where the spread is 0.9... let me know what you think and feel free to share more interesting ideas. Very good reasoning though, you have the right thinking to succeed in this difficult game. Good luck.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,251
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:47pm Feb 15, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting Tony112
Hi great introduction Don and very logical good question. I have already thought of that but here are the consequences:

The trade with the wrong direction will lose a min of 10 pips (half of the spread which is 20 during news)
Why only half? because we would enter(...)
Thanks for the answer. I've never really traded live, but I'm planning on doing so soon.

May I ask (all of) you the amount of profit you've made trading this system live?

Happy trading all!
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #5,252
  • Feb 17, 2011 7:45am Feb 17, 2011 7:45am
My biggest fear continues to be slippage on MBT (being an ecn broker) with news releases. This morning, the E/U ran down 25 pips, then retraced violently due to US unemployment news. Instead of breaking even, I could have easily lost pips due to slippage.

Anyone else have any problems with this? And Tony, which broker are you using these days?
  • #5,253
  • Feb 17, 2011 6:24pm Feb 17, 2011 6:24pm
Quoting rtrs111
Too bad we can't get a (1 year) statistical information of a first 5-8 pips 5 sec candle success rate and its best avg pips TP, after a volatility indi BO.
You can request tick data from Oanda, I've never done this, but it could be done
  • #5,254
  • Feb 17, 2011 6:59pm Feb 17, 2011 6:59pm
Actually I got the data from here: http://www.trader-forex.fr/forum/sys...ild-225-a.html (posted by Birt), but don't know how can be converted to 5 sec charts or used for our purposes.
Then we will need to decide upon the best indi for this to be used, best tf (1H?), then figure out how these signals can be integrated into the EA (provided earlier) and backtest it/ optimize it.
r u ready?
  • #5,255
  • Feb 18, 2011 2:24am Feb 18, 2011 2:24am
Hi Tony/all,

Great thread, and my first post in FF...After following this thread, decided to give it a try.

The area I live, we are 2hrs. ahead of EST timezone, so london open is at 5AM for us.

Attached is 5sec chart, and no trade was initiated due to no big bar(8pips+)...almost 30min has passed, and still couldn't see any big bar...so no trade for this session...Am I correct?

Thanks!
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  • #5,256
  • Feb 18, 2011 7:53am Feb 18, 2011 7:53am
I think Tony watches both opens for at least a couple hours each.
Quoting fchaman
Hi Tony/all,

Great thread, and my first post in FF...After following this thread, decided to give it a try.

The area I live, we are 2hrs. ahead of EST timezone, so london open is at 5AM for us.

Attached is 5sec chart, and no trade was initiated due to no big bar(8pips+)...almost 30min has passed, and still couldn't see any big bar...so no trade for this session...Am I correct?

Thanks!
  • #5,257
  • Feb 18, 2011 8:36am Feb 18, 2011 8:36am
ok maybe I should have like, stay up,
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Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,258
  • Feb 18, 2011 8:56am Feb 18, 2011 8:56am
Quoting Tony112
ok maybe I should have like, stay up,
But you mentioned as part of your trading rules that you will stay of news...Bernarke was talking during NY open, and as you can see, it was extremely choppy on the open.

I will try again on Monday London/NY open...Excellent system though!
  • #5,259
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:04am Feb 18, 2011 9:04am
Quoting rtrs111
Actually I got the data from here: http://www.trader-forex.fr/forum/sys...ild-225-a.html (posted by Birt), but don't know how can be converted to 5 sec charts or used for our purposes.
Then we will need to decide upon the best indi for this to be used, best tf (1H?), then figure out how these signals can be integrated into the EA (provided earlier) and backtest it/ optimize it.
First of all!
Tony' experience counts for a great deal and should not be lightly dismissed.
Now onto your idea. It has a few problems. The biggest one is that the winners are big and infrequent. Therefore the backtest will be severely curve fitted to catch those biggest wins. Secondly the MT4 backtesting program would be a poor choice. It would be better written in C as a console app in order to load as much data as possible and then feed it into the loop one tick at a time and building the 5 second bars on the fly. As occurs in real life. I have done this on a Mac with various chunks of data including my own and I can tell you that deviating from Tony's methodology might not be rewarding. Also as I said in a previous post if Tony is on a winner and hunting for 250 pips then I would tend to follow him. The breakeven stop is a very significant part of many successful strategies as opposed to a trailing stop which should not be implemented except after significant retracements. Finally different brokers, different data feeds, different slippage etc etc etc. Almost impossible to get an accurate representation using someone else's data for your broker.
cheers
  • #5,260
  • Feb 19, 2011 7:36am Feb 19, 2011 7:36am
Hi Salient,
I agree, it's more difficult than I thought and definitely not rewarding. I also trust Tony's experience. Thanks for your detailed explanation.
r u ready?
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