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  • #201
  • Feb 11, 2011 3:47am Feb 11, 2011 3:47am
Quoting Olu
I agree 100% with the eurgbp trade. I dont think the gbpusd trade will be hit though or will be hit and make a reversal. There is an impression that the dollar is going up as discussed somewhere above imho. But we need to follow our systems and milk the statistical advantage it gives us.

I would like to sell the gbpusd below 1.6000

and the eurusd below 1.3570

almost bedtime. See what happens in the morning.
Short @1.3570
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #202
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:21am Feb 11, 2011 5:21am
Quoting deepleo
I would like to sell the gbpusd below 1.6000

and the eurusd below 1.3570
Quoting deepleo



Olu,

I will cancel the GU pending short if the price closes below weekly pivot[1.6074] and I will go short below 1.6014.


My EU short is now +40 and NU +30 both yet to BE
EU Short@BE [+78] still 3 lots open
NU Short lot 1 TP [+65] lot 2@BE [+75]
UJ Long lot 3@BE [+109]
EG Short [-24]

Canceled GU Long
  • #203
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:20am Feb 11, 2011 6:20am
Quoting Olu
Short @1.3570
Closed @3512 (+60pips)
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #204
  • Edited 6:22am Feb 11, 2011 6:21am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting deepleo


EU Short@BE [+78] still 3 lots open
NU Short lot 1 TP [+65] lot 2@BE [+75]
UJ Long lot 3@BE [+109]
EG Short [-24]

Canceled GU Long

Well done. I sort of guessed the gbp order will not get hit...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #205
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:39am Feb 11, 2011 6:39am
Quoting Olu
Well done. I sort of guessed the gbp order will not get hit...
Olu,

GM, did u get into GU short?
I'm still waiting....it fell too fast
and what's ur comments on my EG short? now @-22
  • #206
  • Feb 11, 2011 7:25am Feb 11, 2011 7:25am
Quoting deepleo
Olu,

GM, did u get into GU short?
I'm still waiting....it fell too fast
and what's ur comments on my EG short? now @-22
I did not get into it the gbpusd. Didn't pit in the stop order. Also got out of the eurusd mistakenly. Hope To be able to get in higher again.

By the way that is what I said when I got out of the audusd @1.0040. Thought I would be able to get in on a retest of the breakdown. The rest is history as we are sitttting pretty @9980 now

About the eurgbp I expected a good move down as we has a bearish reversal that was strong. We are unter the daily 100sma line and stoch (while turned up is starting to angle down) I expect weakness but one may have to sit through some drawdown...
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #207
  • Edited 7:40am Feb 11, 2011 7:39am | Edited 7:40am
Is something quietly happening in this pair that will shock us all? This pair is slowly climbing and we might be in for a strong ride upwards. If this pair breaks 8370 area which we are near it could keep on going...

We are above the 100sma.
Stoch is angled upwards
Down trend line broken to the upside (not shown)
Price attacking the january highs
we have broken out of a triangle
My ridimentary elliott says the following:

If we clear the high of 8370 on a daily basis we could be in a wave 3 up. This wave is usually the strongest wave and carries the farthest in the shortest possible time. It could be all over before we are all aware of it!

On the other hand if 83.70 repells the price then it is back to new lows - I think this is doubtful though

Enough of the thinking already we are traders. Does anyone have another take on this?
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #208
  • Feb 11, 2011 8:01am Feb 11, 2011 8:01am
I am conducting a poll. Please answer the question as best as you can.

A bit of background is in order here. I have looked back at most of my trades and found then to be shorts more than longs. It appears I am a professional shorter to the tune of 90% shorts and 10% longs. I read somewhere that the market goes up in steps and comes down in an escalator. Maybe that is why this is so with me

The Question is: Do you trade longs more that shorts or shorts more than longs and what is the percentage

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #209
  • Feb 11, 2011 8:32am Feb 11, 2011 8:32am
Quoting Olu
Is something quietly happening in this pair that will shock us all? This pair is slowly climbing and we might be in for a strong ride upwards. If this pair breaks 8370 area which we are near it could keep on going...

We are above the 100sma.
Stoch is angled upwards
Down trend line broken to the upside (not shown)
Price attacking the january highs
we have broken out of a triangle
My ridimentary elliott says the following:

If we clear the high of 8370 on a daily basis we could be in a wave 3 up. This wave is usually the strongest wave and carries...
Olu,

I agree with you and in terms of pivots:
If the daily price closes above 83.50 [monthly R1] today then it may go up till 84.87 [monthly R2] and then to 86.00 [monthly R3].
  • #210
  • Feb 11, 2011 8:43am Feb 11, 2011 8:43am
Quoting deepleo
Olu,

I agree with you and in terms of pivots:
If the daily price closes above 83.50 [monthly R1] today then it may go up till 84.87 [monthly R2] and then to 86.00 [monthly R3].
Glad to see we agree on a lot of things. However I will have to check the pivot points concept out more closely.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #211
  • Edited 8:54am Feb 11, 2011 8:51am | Edited 8:54am
Check out the dojis on the euro weekly chart. This shows rejection from higher levels and the possibility that the path of least resistance is down. We are also flirting with the 100sma on the downside. Stoch has turned down on the weekly. Down on the weekly down on the daily. The case is building up for a fall in price IMHO
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #212
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:05pm Feb 11, 2011 12:05pm
Position Short from 0.9960
I have uploaded a daily chart of the audcad.
Price is testing the 100sma and I will watch to see whether we would close below it. According to my trading plan if it does by a margin then I will leave the trade over the weekend and possibly add more looking for an eventual of the rough H&S pattern
Stoch has firmly turned down now...
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #213
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:11pm Feb 11, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting Olu
I am conducting a poll. Please answer the question as best as you can.

A bit of background is in order here. I have looked back at most of my trades and found then to be shorts more than longs. It appears I am a professional shorter to the tune of 90% shorts and 10% longs. I read somewhere that the market goes up in steps and comes down in an escalator. Maybe that is why this is so with me

The Question is: Do you trade longs more that shorts or shorts more than longs and what is the percentage

Olu
It depends of the overall market situation. You don't have to worrry about that. The longs hit the TP slowly, the shorts - quickly. It is like in the mountain - up is difficult, down - . Just follow your trading ruls - they are a mirror of the market.
Sorry, but my English is not so good, I hope, you understand what I mean.
  • #214
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:15pm Feb 11, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting Olu
I know this pair is not commonly traded in the west but this helps me to put my thoughts to paper and view the validity of my calls

dountrend line break
stoch has turned up
bullish divergence on the daily

So this is bullish

Bearish/wait and see arguments is mainly the fact that price is below the 100sma
I think that is not problem, there is enought place to it. But for me a problem is the close - it could't close above the previouse low, the price is on it
  • #215
  • Feb 11, 2011 1:59pm Feb 11, 2011 1:59pm
Closed all trades for the week.

NZDUSD: lot 2&3 from +85 to stopped out@BE
EURUSD: lot 2&3 closed [+65]
USDJPY: lot 3 closed [+102]
EURGBP: closed 3 lots[-13]

Have a good weekend all.
  • #216
  • Feb 11, 2011 2:02pm Feb 11, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting Olu
Position Short from 0.9960
I have uploaded a daily chart of the audcad.
Price is testing the 100sma and I will watch to see whether we would close below it. According to my trading plan if it does by a margin then I will leave the trade over the weekend and possibly add more looking for an eventual of the rough H&S pattern
Stoch has firmly turned down now...
Half closed @0.9898 (+62pips)
Stop to b/e on the other half t/p set to 9800
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #217
  • Feb 12, 2011 9:57am Feb 12, 2011 9:57am
Good weekend 9/5'rs.

Olu asked me to give a quick look at usd/jpy and spot gold using Ichimoku on the big time frames and what I look for to spot trade setups.

The key is to be trading with the trend on all time frames and entering trades on pull backs to S or R on daily. I wish not to turn this into an ichi thread so if you need help just pm me.

Usdjpy is down on monthly /weekly and forming channel on daily. We could see price move out of the range and move up to 88.50 to 90.80 but then will hit a brick wall full of resistance. If your ct trading pay attention to this area. If your trend trading, this is where you want to start looking for reversal signals to go short. Stay short until trend changes on the big TF.

Gold has been in a monster move since 2001. I know, everyone and grandma is in gold but the charts are up across all TF's and we stay with the trend til it ends. If not in yet, look to buy pullbacks from 1250/1205 then 1160 to 1016. If ct tading same area's to take profits.


Good hunting.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy wekly.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold weekly.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #218
  • Feb 13, 2011 6:12pm Feb 13, 2011 6:12pm
Thanks Golfer for the analysis

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #219
  • Feb 13, 2011 6:36pm Feb 13, 2011 6:36pm
Short @0.8446. Think we are in a wave 3 or a wave C down. This is supposed to be an impulsive move down. First hurdle is support @8424 then 8388.

I have labelled it with rudimentary elliot waves. By the way there is an alternate count which is bullish. This bullish coint will be invalidated if 8388 id broken.

Daily stoch has turned down
price below the 100sma
price below the ichi cloud
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-daily-14022011-0030uk.jpg Size: 108 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #220
  • Feb 14, 2011 7:43am Feb 14, 2011 7:43am
It is lunchtime at work. Just looking it to see what is happening

eurgbp is going down nicely...
audcad doing well.

The audcad chart is becoming more bearish by the day.

Price is about to break the last week low
stoch on the daily weekly and monthly has turned down
This chart is intensely bearish imho.

I hope I can do this trade justice by holding till the end of this downtrend
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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