GBP/USD - one trade a day

... depends on whether or not you go with the "simpler" math that I posted.

When *I* am trading (and of course, that doesn't have to be the same way you trade it), I actually do calculate the lot size every day based on what 2.5% of the balance is that day. In the end, it makes very little difference - what it amounts to is a few pips difference when we get close to the target... If we're already up several %, our lot size would be slightly higher, and therefore the pips needed to reach the final few % would be slightly fewer. But again, the difference is minimal, and it does make the math a whole lot easier to stick with the same lot size for the entire month. Only reason I do it this way is because my EA calculates this stuff "on the fly" at the time it places the trade. So I just very quickly calculate what 2.5% of the current account balance is at the time of the trade, instead of needing a variable for it.

Dear Roundrock
Thanks for your attention. I think the balance is correct. It is the sum of current daily starting balance, + or - the pips gain or loss, times the pip $ value.
But about the lot, it is the Cgrey’s assumption. We always risk 2.5% (.025) of our starting capital, but I made it so that if the balance goes blow the starting amount, it will resize the lot with the reduced balance. I can make it for higher balance also. Please find it attached, Ver03.
Regards.

Good work Merlin. This is going to help me tremendously. I was using pen and paper before. You should of seen the mess of papers on my desk between backtesting and stuff.

Only request I have is: can you make the "TP pip" recalculate to make exactly .1 reward (10%) based on the "lot" size after loss(es). It seems to keep calculating "TP pip" (target) based on the starting lot size. If this is too complicating or cannot be done then no big deal cause I can figure it out on paper.

Once again thanks, hope you and all have a great weekend. Looking forward to Monday.

EDIT: NEVERMIND ON REQUEST TO CHANGE "TP PIP" RECALCULATION. I READ CGREY'S POST ON HOW IN THE END IT DOESN'T MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE AND ALSO HAD A MOMENT OF CLARITY WHERE I REALIZED IT DOESN'T REALLY MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MATH.

We're just about halfway through February. We've had 9 trading days, with 11 to go. Tough month so far - only two winners of the 9 days. Of the 7 losers, 5 of them stopped us out.

Below is taken from my trading journal, showing where we are so far. With 11 trading days left, let's see if we can pull out a winning month, even if we end up short of the 10% target. We know from past experience in our backtests that is is possible to wipe out the roughly 9% loss so far with just one or two nice wins. We'll see if we can start this week with one of them and get back on our feet.

Was that a pep talk? Haha. Okay seriously now, let's see how we do coming down the backstretch of this month. From a purely mathematical standpoint it seems reasonable to think this system is profitable over the long haul. The odds are you will choose the right direction 50% of the time (up or down, based on pure randomness). Since the wrong side is capped (20+/- pip SL) and the right side isn't, that would lead one to believe this could work. I'm obviously not shedding light on anything new, but I just want to reiterate that so that we stay focused to the plan.

I like what we're doing in recording the gap. We may pick up on a pattern therefore increasing our odds of picking winners. Lastly, we should also pay attention and note how often price reverses from the 0-8 GMT candle and how often it doesn't. This could be the essential element to this system. Going with the flow until it changes and then going that other way if it does.

Good Luck!

Days like this I'm glad I'm still in demo...

Our biggest win of the month so far (around 35-pips today), and for some reason, my EA didn't trade it today. It's gonna be a fun week...

Hmmm.... Looks like the problem is IBFX. Prior to this demo for this system, I haven't used them for anything in a while. I thought their demos didn't expire, but maybe they've changed that since last time I opened a demo with them, because it looks like that is what happened. I get "invalid account" when I try to log in to it (and it was almost exactly 30-days ago to the day that it was opened).

So, looks like the rest of this month is going to have to be done "on paper" (or in a spreadsheet, at least). Unfortunately, that breaks the myfxbook journal. I'll post regular updates here for the rest of the month. In March we'll transition to OANDA, either demo or live depending on whether or not their live MT4 is ready.

yes, 35 pips profit and the gap is 60 pips !!! we will record the corelation of gap to performance

I make that trade as $126.90 profit, +4.4%, and overall balance now $3027.56 (overall gain for Feb = -4.91%)

Can anyone confirm?

Updated with today's trade:

Sounds about right. See my post above - this is my journal for the month so far.

Hello everyone. A positive day I see. Nice.

Thanks for taking the time on this cgrey. I have learned a lot from this thread. I like your mm strategy that you use on this trade, and also your idea that you need to treat forex like a business.

I read your old journals from the past and I noticed how you like to test a trade for 3 months before changing any parameters. I do think you should incorporate the rule of not taking the trade if the gap is 9 pips or less. Thats just my opinion of course.

Another question for the guys who trade this manually. What if you didn't enter your trade right away and waited to put the trade in a little closer to your sl? You would have a better r/r that way.

One more idea for all the traders that are thinking of trading this for more then 10% a month. Set your tp at 10% like cgrey does. Once you make 10% on however many trades it takes to get there, reset and use 10% as your tp again. Same if you have a dd of 10% reset and start over on your 10% goal. I think it would keep your tp realistic that way.

Example, start with $1000. After ten trades you have $1100. Reset and go for 10% again. Maybe you have a a few bad trades in a row and are down 10%. So now you have $990. Reset your goal and go for 10% again.


disclaimer, I have not went back and looked to see if either idea would help or hinder, just a couple ideas I had while reading this thread.

Also cgrey, as you can see this is my first post and I would like to ask you about a mm strategy for a trade that I use. I can not pm or email other members yet. So if you would be kind enough to email me or pm me I would really appreciate it. If you don't have the time I totally understand.

Since I am a noob I think its better for me to read the forums then post useless garbage to get my post count up so I am allowed to pm other members.

Sorry guys for the long winded post also.

Great day today.....attached you can see the updated equity of my slightly modified version of the strategy.

With today trade (+58 pips)...my strategy is +77 pips in gain this month, considering that the target is 80 pips...one could also stop trading for the month...without risking anymore for only 3 pips difference...

One thing to notice....my demo calculations are without spread...

I did a backtest with spread included and some months the target is not achieved due to spread, but the strategy remains positive...

Hi Chris,

great result. Can you shortly summarize your modifications?

Thank you.

Nice day and I nearly did not take it as price was very close to the opening price on the 00.00 candle

About 15 pips I think

What if price goes in trade direction without any drawdown as soon as the position is opened (as was the case today)?

Hope this helps.

Please see post# 263. And I believe he is not stopping trading when 10% monthly goal is achieved. He takes every trade during the month so some months will yield greater than 10% and some not.

Hope this helps.

Here's one of the reasons I continue to like this system - two good days (yesterday and today) have wiped out the 9% we were down going in to the week, and we're now slightly up.

Journal below is updated with today's trade.

(I'll get to some responses a little later)...

Said in a few words:

1. I watch 01:00 candle to pick direction instead of 00:00 candle

2. I don't recalculate my target every day...so I don't close the current trade if the target is reached but I leave it open until the end of the candle, this may seem a slight difference but it's not...because for example...this month i'm 77 pips in gain...the original strategy would put my target at only 3 pips tomorrow...my strategy doesn't put that limit, I let the trade close by itself...if it makes 50 pips for example..I've made a good amount of pips more than my monthly target....I hope it's clear.

3. Once my 80 pips monthly target has been exceeded I stop trading from next day.

In other words, the target is 80 pips monthly (or 10%) but if the last trade goes over it..I let it go, doing this way...some months the gain is way over 80 pips.

But again..my numbers are without spread...this make a difference in real results...

In the image you can see trades for February, 1pip = 1$