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AUD/USD

  • #28,081
  • Feb 12, 2011 5:12pm Feb 12, 2011 5:12pm
aud looks short to me in day.but over the long time it will rise
  • #28,082
  • Feb 12, 2011 6:53pm Feb 12, 2011 6:53pm
Hi! First time poster. Long time reader. I'm new to this game so these forums have taught me a lot. One thing I noticed about the AUD/USD pair is that until this week, the psychology was very much one of whatever the news we'll look at the upside. Floods wiping out the 3rd largest city? Commodities will go up and inflation will cause an interest rate rise. Yay! What I noticed starting with the latest ABS jobs data is that while it wasn't uniformly good it was probably more good than bad. Until recently the market would have only looked at the good part of it and gone up. However this time they overlooked the majority good part and only focused on the bad part. Similarly with Glenn Stevens talk. It was more positive than negative and still the market only saw the negative. In my opinion the "even bad news is good news" behaviour is very much bubble psychology. However seeing the bad part of every news is very much bubble collapse psychology. Could we be seeing the collapse of a bubble in AUD/USD?
  • #28,083
  • Feb 12, 2011 8:22pm Feb 12, 2011 8:22pm
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Quoting Anne Clare
Could we be seeing the collapse of a bubble in AUD/USD?
Hi Anne, welcome, great first post, some very astute observations.

There's a nice head and shoulders pattern on the daily thus far which if it follows through (it may not) should see more south. AU is an asset class risk currency, it's always a popular buy with central banks and hedge funds because of the high interest rate. Pull backs are likely being watched with much interest (watch out for the lively kick back up when it is done going down).

It certainly responded firmly to the 55 ema and support @ .9955 on the daily chart (see below). It did not retrace much beyond the 61.8 fib (briefly overshot but bounced right back). If the weekly candle had been of equivalent size to the previous two bear candles on the weekly (chart below), I'd be more convinced it was going south.

AU's performance of late may have more to do with the strength of the USD on UCHF and UJ. Worth watching for signs of weakness on these two and how AU performs against the Euro on the EUR/AUD cross.

I used to think AU was in a bubble too, but the reality check is that this is an "ugly sisters" contest, everything is relative to everything else. AU is still the most attractive looking of the sisters (because of the interest rate and a relatively stable/sound economy compared to other players).

If support doesn't hold @ .9950-60 then it is likely price will eclipse the former triangle and continue south.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auweekly.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audaily.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #28,084
  • Feb 13, 2011 2:00am Feb 13, 2011 2:00am
Quoting Anne Clare
Hi! First time poster. Long time reader. I'm new to this game so these forums have taught me a lot. One thing I noticed about the AUD/USD pair is that until this week, the psychology was very much one of whatever the news we'll look at the upside. Floods wiping out the 3rd largest city? Commodities will go up and inflation will cause an interest rate rise. Yay! What I noticed starting with the latest ABS jobs data is that while it wasn't uniformly good it was probably more good than bad. Until recently the market would have only looked at the good...
Hi Anne, welcome to the discussion.
The argument that the Aussie is in a long "bubble" may have some merit if you only observe charts, you may say we are overbought, as for fundamentals i am not in the possession of any economics degrees but it would appear to me that the Aussie economy is still perhaps the strongest in the world...at the moment, despite of all the natural disasters.
My view is that there's still more upside, a view that i try to keep subdued when trading.
I guess you have to ask yourself what type of trader you are, are you looking for the longer term swings or are you trading a specific session like the European open?
You could well be short currently with a view that the market will be long in the near future.
What ever you do, keep it simple is the only suggestion i can give you.
Good luck with your journey.
Biggest joker
  • #28,085
  • Feb 13, 2011 6:19am Feb 13, 2011 6:19am
Quoting matlock
We saw a pin bar on the Aussie and the Kiwi

High-Probability Aussie Trade Setup - 4X.fi FX analysis

Yes. An ideal situation would be for price to pull back to .9955 in weekend trade prior to NY open (or as a result of the news due), putting in a classic tweezer pair, one bear, one bull, nice wicks, strong move north.

It could otherwise potentially act as a bear hammer and do the opposite.
Attached Image
  • #28,086
  • Feb 13, 2011 6:39am Feb 13, 2011 6:39am
imo it will correct to the southside just a bit in asian session, retrace MAX to 1.0067 zone on monday. Next going back to 9940 - 9920 if better 9880 zone. But this is a roughly estimation. There is going to be a lot of action this week and even more next week. So everything is possible ofcourse.
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #28,087
  • Feb 13, 2011 10:51am Feb 13, 2011 10:51am
Quoting cvarnado
Will be trading in the next 6 hours with the data due.
trading time is quite tiring,
why you should be 6 hours in front of the chart ?
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #28,088
  • Feb 13, 2011 8:52pm Feb 13, 2011 8:52pm
Long for right now
chart below with entries and potential targets.

Looking for DXY weakness this week.
Yet things are just kicking off, so I'll start with smash and grab.

dip below parity on Aussie rejected as of yet and we have corrected nicely.

Second chart AUD positive Home loans. AND although avoided by price EXTREMELY positive Jobs number out of OZ land while the US still produces OK jobs.
I will contend Aussie looks toppy on higher term charts. Yet resistance is meant to be broken and I am more bullish the AUD than the USD economically.

Plus the cyclone has come and gone. My best wishes to those in Australia affected by the storm.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold AUD_USD Sunday feb 13 2011_30min.GIF Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud home lons pos.GIF Size: 148 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,089
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:18pm Feb 13, 2011 9:18pm
Just took profit on 2.
waiting for dip to buy back - GBP up 89 pips from open
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,090
  • Feb 13, 2011 10:28pm Feb 13, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting FX-Petra
My chart looks strikingly similar to yours. I like confluence areas. I took 1-1/2 lots @ 9990, and another 1-1/2 at 9970. I have placed one stop @ 9940 (short term trade) and another @ 9790 (longer term). 1st TP is 1.0055, 2nd in 1.0190. We'll see what happens.

Regards,
1st TP hit. Holding 2nd from 9970---stop moved to BE. Hoping to reload on a dip near the 1.000 area. Hoping I'm getting my groove back and can start making some $$$$! Good trades to all.

Regards,
  • #28,091
  • Feb 14, 2011 2:37am Feb 14, 2011 2:37am
Already rumbling about the next rate hike on the back of the home loans data

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/s...-1226005847559
  • #28,092
  • Feb 14, 2011 8:46am Feb 14, 2011 8:46am
Quoting FX-Petra
1st TP hit. Holding 2nd from 9970---stop moved to BE. Hoping to reload on a dip near the 1.000 area. Hoping I'm getting my groove back and can start making some $$$$! Good trades to all.

Regards,
Reloaded @ 1.0010 with 1.5 lots. TP @ 1.0060. Still holding 1.5 lots from 9970 for TP near 1.0190. Good luck on all your trades!

Regards,
  • #28,093
  • Feb 14, 2011 4:16pm Feb 14, 2011 4:16pm
How is it you can hold 2 seperate positions? when ever I do that all trades get combine to form one basis
Mike
  • #28,094
  • Edited 4:52pm Feb 14, 2011 4:18pm | Edited 4:52pm
I see a roundtop on the AUS/USD weekly so expecting retracements down to the 0.95 and 0.935 levels. The last two weekly's AND monthly's have formed inside bars, which could be further indication of what is about to take place. Another thing to bear in mind is that gold last week has broken and closed below its 20 day MA for the first time in 6 months. Compare to the other commodity powerhouse the mighty USD/CAD, this has not broken below 0.9830 for last 6 weeks, and last week was an inverted hammer, and morning star has formed on daily which may suggest a change in trend is about to take place for both these pairings.

Time will tell. DYOR

Bucko
  • #28,095
  • Feb 14, 2011 10:42pm Feb 14, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting mckal33
How is it you can hold 2 seperate positions? when ever I do that all trades get combine to form one basis
Mike
Are you trading currency futures?
Biggest joker
  • #28,096
  • Feb 15, 2011 4:49am Feb 15, 2011 4:49am
wow, looks like this little girl is having her grey period.... very emotional...
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #28,097
  • Feb 15, 2011 6:28am Feb 15, 2011 6:28am
Quoting Markj
Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now or is this a technical call.
the dollar remains bid against the Yen ahead of the Europeans opening . After it's pullback from Friday's high at 83.67 found support at 83.10 low , and the pair regained momentum in Asian session returning to 83.60 so far. Immediate resistance lies at 83.65/70 (jan7/feb11 high) and above here,83.90(dec21 high ) and 84.20(dec 17 high) on thedownside, support levels lie at 83.10(feb14 low) and below here 82.80(50-day MA) and 82.45/65(feb7/9 high) breach of 83.65 would expose key resistance at 84.50, acording to solbodan key Drvenica technical analyst at windsor BrokersLTd:"Fresh strength looks to breakthrough 83.67 to expose key near-term resistance at 84.49,clearance og which confirm higher lows at 80.92/81.10 and extension of broader recovery attempt from 80.24,2010 low".
  • #28,098
  • Feb 15, 2011 7:57am Feb 15, 2011 7:57am
Quoting FX-Petra
Reloaded @ 1.0010 with 1.5 lots. TP @ 1.0060. Still holding 1.5 lots from 9970 for TP near 1.0190. Good luck on all your trades!

Regards,
Took profit @ 1.0045 from 1.0010 as it did not quite make my 1.0060 target so I closed it on the way down. Reloaded @ 1.0000, again looking to TP @ 1.0060. Still holding 9970 for upside target of 1.0190. Good trades to all.

Regards,
  • #28,099
  • Feb 15, 2011 1:53pm Feb 15, 2011 1:53pm
it looks like that it went down to .9955 just to hit some stops and then to turn north. lets see if that's the case.
  • #28,100
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:24pm Feb 15, 2011 2:24pm
one of the major drawbacks in afternoon trading is it usually follows the daily trend I am hoping for a bounce to the north ...the 5 min chart shows the end of the 5 wave so hopefully it climbs...my gearing is high and looking for 10 pips
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