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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #88,521
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:26pm Feb 9, 2011 2:26pm
Quoting jkrick33
we are all aware that london is the best time to trade the FX Market,
but when we shift out and look at less trading at higher timeframes, when do you see more of your trades taken? is it at the close of the NY session when the candle has completed? a certain GMT? any help if any is greatly appreciated
Hi jkrick,

I place my orders on higher timeframes after bar close. For instance, many here have a 5pm est close. I review my charts around that time (if possible) and place my orders.

When that trade gets executed is out of my control.

I then review it daily to adjust stops or exit depending on my management plan.

-- Danny
  • #88,522
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:27pm Feb 9, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting Ifmyante
The setups can happen at any time at all. Certainly they can run faster at more volatile times, but this doesn't make them any more valid. Just a little easier on the nerves, perhaps
Hey IMA

The off market times, or less liquid times will have an effect on price in many ways. Yes people do trade at all times, but for those trading 4hr and under I caution against trading at off times. Sort of like playing in a game that isn't really going on(there are exceptions when the markets are very active during the off times). As for higher timeframe, anytime they trigger is fine for me.

For me personally

daily/weekly - trigger anytime
4hr and under - 95% of my trades are executed b/w ~3am est -1030am est

Take care
Mike
  • #88,523
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:28pm Feb 9, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Sorry Dan but your trendline makes no sense to me. You have ignored all of the bars I circled. Do you think others will draw like this and notice your trendline?
Think of tl's in the same way u would supp and res they are zones not pip values.
  • #88,524
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:36pm Feb 9, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting Ifmyante
True Dan.

Now I got it

Anyway, that's become one hell of a bar to be trying to short into
There is a strong , tight resistance @ 1.3640 / 50% of longer-term swing low.
Very good location imo...
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  • #88,525
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:39pm Feb 9, 2011 2:39pm
Many thanks to Mike, Danny, and Michael also for the responses. I have always tried to take my trades during London session to the end of the oil market close (NY 12est), and as Ive read through and learned about this method and look for PA setups I had seen the EUR/AUD and had taken that PB short for a .5% risk, but was stopped out as it broke above. I took the trade based on PA falling over. On to the next. In the back of my mind now I have the focus of looking at Daily charts with IBs and PBs for larger moves, going to be studying. Good Luck guys


Quoting mbqb11
Hey IMA

The off market times, or less liquid times will have an effect on price in many ways. Yes people do trade at all times, but for those trading 4hr and under I caution against trading at off times. Sort of like playing in a game that isn't really going on(there are exceptions when the markets are very active during the off times). As for higher timeframe, anytime they trigger is fine for me.

For me personally

daily/weekly - trigger anytime
4hr and under - 95% of my trades are executed b/w ~3am est -1030am est

Take care
Mike
DM if you have any questions
  • #88,526
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:43pm Feb 9, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting stewrigh
Think of tl's in the same way u would supp and res they are zones not pip values.
I am very confident that no institutional trader had that trend line on their chart.

A PPZ works as a zone because it shows interest in price at a value level. A trendlne is a trend boundary. Two very different things.
  • #88,527
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:11pm Feb 9, 2011 3:11pm
As a new viewer of this thread, could someone post a recent A+ setup in "their" opinion that they have taken, possibly with how they managed the trade. Much appreciate ahead of time to anyone.
DM if you have any questions
  • #88,528
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:11pm Feb 9, 2011 3:11pm
I suppose, since even the drawing of trend lines can be so subjective, the point regarding the need for confluence to provide greater probability, or at least, greater peace of mind, is validated all the more
  • #88,529
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:19pm Feb 9, 2011 3:19pm
Ha, forgot to add...an A+ setup that they have seen most recently!
DM if you have any questions
  • #88,530
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:25pm Feb 9, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting jkrick33
Ha, forgot to add...an A+ setup that they have seen most recently!
Have you got your weekly PPZs set on GBPUSD?

Take a look at the daily, and then the H4

You'll come up with a recent A+ setup soon enough
  • #88,531
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:29pm Feb 9, 2011 3:29pm
ill take a look at cable...but again im not looking for anyone to post potential setups for me, but rather recent setups they "had" taken, but anything is of value to me. i just dont want anyone to think i am looking for a free trade or signal service
DM if you have any questions
  • #88,532
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:33pm Feb 9, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting jkrick33
Ha, forgot to add...an A+ setup that they have seen most recently!
Mike's gold short was my favorite!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1295969099
  • #88,533
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:45pm Feb 9, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting jkrick33
Ha, forgot to add...an A+ setup that they have seen most recently!
Got stopped out on my last 1/3 today.
Entered on the break of the BEOB
exit 1/3 @ 1.3550
1/3 @ 1.3310
Had my last 1/3 for runner with SL @1.3550 .

Ghous did the same trade only he closed all his position around 1.3300
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Anything can happen - You never know
  • #88,534
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:45pm Feb 9, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting jkrick33
Ha, forgot to add...an A+ setup that they have seen most recently!
Another A+ setup, not so much in pip value or RR, but A+ in probability
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=88463
  • #88,535
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:55pm Feb 9, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting fxprocessor
I am very confident that no institutional trader had that trend line on their chart.

A PPZ works as a zone because it shows interest in price at a value level. A trendlne is a trend boundary. Two very different things.
fxp,regarding ppz and trendline,I have a different point of view.PPZ and trendlines are just levels of demand and supply,the difference betwen them is that ppz are static levels for demand/supply and the trendlines are dynamic levels .Both are the same thing:demand/supply (support/ressistence) levels.Just mine.
Nothing personal,just business
  • #88,536
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:39pm Feb 9, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting jkrick33
Ha, forgot to add...an A+ setup that they have seen most recently!
Hey jkrick33,

Here is my last one.

Big BUOB engulfing 7 prior bars
Strong close
Off a Big Round Number
Retesting and bouncing off a prior consolidation box
Occurred during a major trading session
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  • #88,537
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:43pm Feb 9, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting benji533
Hey jkrick33,

Here is my last one.

Big BUOB engulfing 7 prior bars
Strong close
Off a Big Round Number
Retesting and bouncing off a prior consolidation box
Occurred during a major trading session


Benji returns!!!!

I still have like 25 charts you posted on here saved to my hard drive and study them at least once a week.

Man, you have so much trading sense and you are so young. You will buy a professional sports team someday.
  • #88,538
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:56pm Feb 9, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting unlv_tj


Benji returns!!!!

I still have like 25 charts you posted on here saved to my hard drive and study them at least once a week.

Man, you have so much trading sense and you are so young. You will buy a professional sports team someday.
Good to see you buddy! One of the old mates.. Hope your trading is going well.



By the way anyone knows where are Tiaforex and StorgePro ???? I miss those guys....

Anyway it's becoming late here...
  • #88,539
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:38pm Feb 9, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting Adilius07
If so, how can it be advantageous to have SL 3 times bigger than TP?
Just a paradox!!! This drives me crazy really. (and let's be realistic 90% win rate, that's too high, we are humans - me for sure, so like 70% is super nice I think...but 90% seems impossible....)
(0.7)(1R) - (0.3)(2R) = 0.1R
(0.7)(1R) - (0.3)(3R) = -0.2R

If your 'win' rate is actually 70%, and your SL is really 3R, then you shouldnt be trading those setups. There are three things you can change here:

a) take only trades with a higher win rate - in this case, over 75% (as 0.75R - (0.3)(3R) = 0) .
b) To find trades with a smaller stop in relation to your target. This might mean passing on some trades, but that's fine.
c) to modify your stop system so that you do not take full profit at the FTA. The occasional runner (say 10%: 0.6R + (0.1)(5R) - *(0.3)(3R) = 0.2R) can change the whole EV of 'family' of setups.

In my opinion, (a) is unrealistic. A hit rate of 70% is already pretty damn high (and in most people's cases, higher than reality - but that's another essay), and so I really wouldnt stake my success on somehow increasing it.

(b), on the other hand, is completely realistic. Just because there is a trade out there doesnt mean you have to take it. You arent an EA. Pass on -EV trades.

(c) is the most complicated, and involves the most work, but is probably your best option to improve your actual returns. I've never been a huge fan of the 'always take full profit at FTA' thing, mainly because... well... math. It seems a bit in vogue around here right now, and I could posit why, but I wont... suffice to say that consistently trading -EV setups will eventually bleed you dry. It's inevitable. It's the Anton Chigurh of trading. You might avoid it for a little while, get lucky at first - but eventually, it will catch up with you. Simple math.

You will likely get much better results by combining the TP at FTA stuff with breakeven stops, trailing stops, partial stops, etc and 'reading' the market for advantageous situations - like, seriously, price smashes through a PPZ on high momentum in the direction of the macro trend.. why the hell you wanna jump off that train?! You need to be able to adapt. If this stuff was as easy as ABC, everyone would do it. And everyone would be a millionaire. But they dont, and they arent.

Anyways, just a few thoughts.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #88,540
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:49pm Feb 9, 2011 5:49pm
Quoting fxprocessor
I am very confident that no institutional trader had that trend line on their chart.

A PPZ works as a zone because it shows interest in price at a value level. A trendlne is a trend boundary. Two very different things.
Not sure I understand the point you are trying to make here.

Are you implying that trendlines are of no use.
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