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AUD/USD

  • #28,021
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:59am Feb 9, 2011 2:59am
Quoting Mike Haran
Hello Gentlemen,

I had a time cycle on the AUDUSD on the 5th, it almost got to the 88.6 retrace on the daily and failed. It also looks like a triple top. Man when this goes down it could be a trend to sell and hold inspite of the negative carry on this pair. I wish you all a great success on this, and remember trend don't last one day. This is a move to get in to and keep adding to if it is the high.

All the best to you all

Mike Haran
Calm Down mate.
  • #28,022
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:02am Feb 9, 2011 3:02am
Quoting baron193
The latest gold chart..

Attachment

Btw peyman, don't take it too personaly, english is my second language too and i have said some wonderfull things in my time..
If it has not gone limp yet, please contact the E.R.
  • #28,023
  • Edited 3:34am Feb 9, 2011 3:33am | Edited 3:34am
Gamble long at 1.0090, did have some good shorts so far though.
.....or should i say looking for the erection there.
Biggest joker
  • #28,024
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:45am Feb 9, 2011 3:45am
Quoting spot
I'm sitting on my thumbs till it reaches 1.00xx level, then i will be looking to go long. priceaction too choppy atm to try determine where it would go next.
Agree. Basically the rate hike is fully expected. Next stop should be 1.0250.
  • #28,025
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:27am Feb 9, 2011 4:27am
Quoting FX-Petra
I have added to my shorts @ 1.0170. This is very rare for me. I am hoping for a push down to the 1.0120's so I can cut these shorts loose and move on to another pair. I have placed my stops @ 1.0275. Almost everything that could happen , within reason, to bring this pair down has now happend and it still shows no sign of retreating. I have absoultely no doubt that we will get a downside run at some point.... but at what cost? Intrest costs are killing me.... and I am losing precious days/weeks tied up in a trade is that is costing me money. I hope...
All shorts closed @ 1.0110 (finally!). That double down at 170 really paid off, but it was a little risky for my taste. I flipped long @ 103, all stops now moved to be +1. We'll see where this goes. Good trades to all.

Regards,
  • #28,026
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:34am Feb 9, 2011 4:34am
Quoting FX-Petra
All shorts closed @ 1.0110 (finally!). That double down at 170 really paid off, but it was a little risky for my taste. I flipped long @ 103, all stops now moved to be +1. We'll see where this goes. Good trades to all.

Regards,
You are cool....i close my short at 145 from 175.
  • #28,027
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:42am Feb 9, 2011 4:42am
Quoting tkhlam
Basically the rate hike is fully expected.
I for one am not expecting it, let alone fully expecting it.
  • #28,028
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:46am Feb 9, 2011 4:46am
Quoting FX-Petra
All shorts closed @ 1.0110 (finally!). That double down at 170 really paid off, but it was a little risky for my taste. I flipped long @ 103, all stops now moved to be +1. We'll see where this goes. Good trades to all.

Regards,
Glad to see you got out safe! However heres what prob. will happen, price will collapse swiftly under 1.01XX not giving you a chance to get back in with a short at a good price, teeth gnashing - "motherfer if only I would have stayed in" then a bit of remorse. .... just messin with ya.

Still short Aussie by the way, although its moreso through a proxy.
  • #28,029
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:51am Feb 9, 2011 4:51am
Quoting Astroman
I for one am not expecting it, let alone fully expecting it.
haha..cool. What's your view now?
  • #28,030
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:00am Feb 9, 2011 5:00am
Well, i have not changed my mind in these last 15 minutes that is for sure.

Please let me ask you this: if you believe that a rate hike is "fully expected ", then why did you take a SHORT just a short while ago?
  • #28,031
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:50am Feb 9, 2011 6:50am
ain't going up. markets are probably entering to a profit taking period. next days will be more clear if that is the case. i'm long meanwhile.
  • #28,032
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:26am Feb 9, 2011 8:26am
Quoting FX-Petra
All shorts closed @ 1.0110 (finally!). That double down at 170 really paid off, but it was a little risky for my taste. I flipped long @ 103, all stops now moved to be +1. We'll see where this goes. Good trades to all.

Regards,
Closed as well this morning. What a waste. Now watch this become the top. lol
  • #28,033
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:49am Feb 9, 2011 8:49am
Quoting Astroman
Well, i have not changed my mind in these last 15 minutes that is for sure.

Please let me ask you this: if you believe that a rate hike is "fully expected ", then why did you take a SHORT just a short while ago?
Ic. I think i wrongly write something as my english is not that good. My meaning should be the rate hike is expected, but not know when the rate to be hiked. As such, the fundamental hasnt changed (long to 1.025 level), but short intra-day when the momentum is towards south.

Apolgozie for my misleading statement again.
  • #28,034
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:53am Feb 9, 2011 8:53am
Quoting tkhlam

Apolgozie for my misleading statement again.
No need for any apology.

It is just as much my fault for failure to clarify your statement.

Best of luck to you my friend,

  • #28,035
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:36am Feb 9, 2011 9:36am
I'd short it.
  • #28,036
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:54am Feb 9, 2011 9:54am
Quoting Astroman
No need for any apology.

It is just as much my fault for failure to clarify your statement.

Best of luck to you my friend,

south again. i think you see Aussie more than me.
  • #28,037
  • Edited 2:05pm Feb 9, 2011 12:16pm | Edited 2:05pm
I intended to go short again on the last push down, if we made a new low. Which we did... I entered @ 1.0090. However, due to a screw up by me, I put the order in as a long instead of a short. All this happened as pending order that I had set up, I have been busy and away from my computer for a while. Come back to see my error--- but as fate would have it I was +40 in the green with 3 lots!! Not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth, I closed the trade. This is one crazy business. Sometimes you can be right and get your arse handed to you. Sometimes you can be wrong and book a handsome profit. Now, exactley why do we stay up for hours looking and agonizing over charts? Good trades to all!!!!

Regards,
  • #28,038
  • Feb 9, 2011 12:57pm Feb 9, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I intended to go short again on the last push down, if we made a new low....
  • #28,039
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:15pm Feb 9, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting FX-Petra
That's what happens when the carry trade unwinds. Take a look at GBP/JPY around New Year a few years ago. When it went pop, it was one brutal ass kicking for carry trade holders. I remenber it well, becasuse I was one of them!

Regards,
That's the scary part of the carry trade. If you are one such trader you have to have a plan in place. Part of your plan should be a) accept a move can turn against you for thousands of pips b) Be able to withstand such a move and also be able to average it down c) be willing to wait years (plural)

It all depends on the risk you're willing to accept and time horizon until profit.

With all that said, some carry trades look like they are ripe for popping.
  • #28,040
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:52pm Feb 9, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I intended to go short again on the last push down, if we made a new low. Which we did... I entered @ 1.0090. However, due to a screw up by me, I put the order in as a long instead of a short. All this happened as pending order that I had set up, I have been busy and away from my computer for a while. Come back to see my error--- but as fate would have it I was +40 in the green with 3 lots!! Not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth, I closed the trade. This is one crazy business. Sometimes you can be right and get your arse handed to you. Sometimes...
Glad to see its not only me who ever so once in a while miss the click between a pending and a market order. A windfall profit under these circumstances very well proves how wrong our judgment of the market is at times. Then again, theory has it, you only need to be right more than 50% of the time.
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