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GBP/USD - one trade a day

  • #301
  • Feb 8, 2011 6:07pm Feb 8, 2011 6:07pm
monday hit SL...tuesday winner...today..

P: bobcat2..yay packers..!!!
  • #302
  • Feb 8, 2011 8:26pm Feb 8, 2011 8:26pm
anybody has writter any excel tracker for this system ? inputs are starting balance, monthly target percentage, stoploss percentage, stoploss pips, spread. it should log everyday data. we will enter GMT0 Open price, GMT8 Open , Close price. It should calculate the lotsize, stoploss, take profit , PL for today and update the current account balance, monthly PL.

thanks in advance
  • #303
  • Feb 9, 2011 12:51am Feb 9, 2011 12:51am
Hi All,

Thanks for the thread and strategy! I've been dabbling myself with this currency and I definitely like that the Asian session doesn't mess with it too much heading into the London open.

How does the Trade Balance news coming out at 4:30am EST affect the strategy? If at all.

My take: If it's much more negative than forecast, I could see it bouncing down to 1.6040 range (which indicates the short by this strategy), but I'd be worry about all those Long stops in that area. Might shoot back up to 1.6140 range where a whole bunch of sellers are AND then start heading back down, perhaps stalling at the 1.6040 range again. Until King speaks again, I think we are going to be pretty much rangebound between 1.6200 and 1.6000.

I'm primarily looking at the 30min chart and seeing back to 1/31.

What do you all think?

Thanks!

-Charlie
  • #304
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:54am Feb 9, 2011 1:54am
With The Tokyo and London open prices almost the same, who is entering the trade? It looks more like a crap shoot this morning...
  • #305
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:31am Feb 9, 2011 2:31am
another loss...let's hope for tomorrow...
  • #306
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:42am Feb 9, 2011 2:42am
Quoting cgrey
Tons of chart time on this pair has revealed an interesting possibility. I'll be formally testing this theory in a demo account, beginning tomorrow.

The "system" couldn't be simpler. The money management takes a little more thought, so I will explain it first.

We are taking ONE trade per day (which will be described later) on G/U. We will ALWAYS set a 20-pip stop loss, and that 20-pips will ALWAYS represent 2.5% of our balance. This is important to remember.

Our goal for the month is 10% return on our opening balance. How we determine...
Hi mate

This is a variation of the London Surge strategy I was taught at one of the trading seminars last year however you look back at the open price. Simple yet effective . I will say that myself and my trading buddies have backtested all sorts if London surge scenario strats and the success rate was superb in the past, 2009 and before. It seems as of late that there are pre-surges on cable before 8am, maybe 6am, maybe 7am. A lot of these are false breakouts and spike us in.

I too am looking for that one good, high probability trade a day, and then be able to walk away happy with a view to repeat.

I haven't read this whole thread yet, just the first post and the last page. If there is still a need for an excel app to help us all with this strat then I'd be more than happy to help

Cheers
Mark
  • #307
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:56am Feb 9, 2011 4:56am
Quoting charlie626

How does the Trade Balance news coming out at 4:30am EST affect the strategy? If at all....
Have a good read through the thread. I've said many times, this system takes absolutely nothing in to account other than the two candle open prices. The way I trade it, I go in based on the "rules" I've set for myself - period. Hence, my several references to gambling.

That being said - I am all for fundamental trading... It is the core of what I call my "real" trading. It just has nothing at all to do with this particular system.
  • #308
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:57am Feb 9, 2011 4:57am
Quoting Bobcat2
With The Tokyo and London open prices almost the same, who is entering the trade? It looks more like a crap shoot this morning...
It's a crap shoot every day, Bob
  • #309
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:47am Feb 9, 2011 5:47am
Quoting mcornbill
I too am looking for that one good, high probability trade a day, and then be able to walk away happy with a view to repeat.

In a nutshell, that's our goal here. Minimize the losses with a relatively conservative stop, and bank the bigger trades.
  • #310
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:06am Feb 9, 2011 6:06am
Hello everybody
I've read the thread and today I took a chance.
Sold at 8hs bar open (6068) and stopped out (-20 pips), then I sold again at 6095 with good reward, closed at 6052 (+43 pips) for a total of +23 . I know I broke some rules but I like the system.
I won't post any related to my trading way, I think this can be more profitable, this just to thank you for the idea.
Let's see tomorrow.
  • #311
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:51am Feb 9, 2011 6:51am
Quoting Bobcat2
With The Tokyo and London open prices almost the same, who is entering the trade? It looks more like a crap shoot this morning...
do you have some stats on the pip-distance ? today it hit SL. May be the pip-distance has to be above some number. but we dont have the data to confirm this.

anyway cgrey mentioned several times without all these rules it worked. so lets keep it like this
  • #312
  • Feb 9, 2011 7:37am Feb 9, 2011 7:37am
Quoting FxCba
Hello everybody
I've read the thread and today I took a chance.
Sold at 8hs bar open (6068) and stopped out (-20 pips), then I sold again at 6095 with good reward, closed at 6052 (+43 pips) for a total of +23 . I know I broke some rules but I like the system.
I won't post any related to my trading way, I think this can be more profitable, this just to thank you for the idea.
Let's see tomorrow.
Great - I hope the concept has given you some ideas to make your own to be successful with!
  • #313
  • Feb 9, 2011 7:42am Feb 9, 2011 7:42am
Quoting roundrock
do you have some stats on the pip-distance ? today it hit SL. May be the pip-distance has to be above some number. but we dont have the data to confirm this.

anyway cgrey mentioned several times without all these rules it worked. so lets keep it like this
This concept of how close the two prices are cointinues to intrigue me. True, I have no data, and I still haven't had the time to really dig in to it. But I do continue to believe this could be one realtively simple filter that might work and not drastically change the underlying concept of the system.
  • #314
  • Feb 9, 2011 10:32am Feb 9, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Olarion1975
another loss...let's hope for tomorrow...
Quoting cgrey
In a nutshell, that's our goal here. Minimize the losses with a relatively conservative stop, and bank the bigger trades.
That's the key. Hang in there until the runs go in our favor. Trade like a machine. LIKE A MACHINE!!!

Quoting cgrey
This concept of how close the two prices are cointinues to intrigue me. True, I have no data, and I still haven't had the time to really dig in to it. But I do continue to believe this could be one realtively simple filter that might work and not drastically change the underlying concept of the system.
That will be one of the things we may get out of "practice" trading this method. Maybe we pick up on a pattern and then use it to fine tune the method. I personally like entering each day even if the price is difference is small. As someone stated before, it's pretty much a crap shoot. With the loss limited, I have no problem going in hoping for the breakout to go in my favor.
  • #315
  • Feb 9, 2011 10:36am Feb 9, 2011 10:36am
here's a excel generated from my backtesting. It has date, gap, PL

gap is the pip distance between GMT0, GMT8 Open prices

draw your own comparisons. i sorted by gap

my conclusion is avoid trades if gap < 9
Attached File(s)
File Type: csv OneTrade - Copy.csv   4 KB | 320 downloads
  • #316
  • Feb 9, 2011 11:26am Feb 9, 2011 11:26am
Quoting roundrock
here's a excel generated from my backtesting. It has date, gap, PL

gap is the pip distance between GMT0, GMT8 Open prices

draw your own comparisons. i sorted by gap

my conclusion is avoid trades if gap < 9
Good stuff rr....

More than half of the trades (17 out of 30) stopped out when the difference between the candles was less than 9 pips.. This may be a starting point...
  • #317
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:34pm Feb 9, 2011 3:34pm
Quoting roundrock
here's a excel generated from my backtesting. It has date, gap, PL

gap is the pip distance between GMT0, GMT8 Open prices

draw your own comparisons. i sorted by gap

my conclusion is avoid trades if gap < 9
I'm not going to modify my actual trading just yet. But I am going to track in my journal the "gap" between the two open prices for the remainder of February. That will let me do a "what if" for the rest of the month, and see if there is a difference in the outcome.

I have to say - I am really leaning toward adding this filter - exactly as roundrock proposes it (don't trade if the "gap" is less than 9 pips). We'll see what happens if I put this in place for March. I'll also be going live with about $1k for this system in March, IF OANDA has rolled out MT4 to live accounts by then...
  • #318
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:59pm Feb 9, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting cgrey
I'm not going to modify my actual trading just yet. But I am going to track in my journal the "gap" between the two open prices for the remainder of February. That will let me do a "what if" for the rest of the month, and see if there is a difference in the outcome.

I have to say - I am really leaning toward adding this filter - exactly as roundrock proposes it (don't trade if the "gap" is less than 9 pips). We'll see what happens if I put this in place for March. I'll also be going live with about $1k for this system in March, IF OANDA...
Here's the other thing we need to look at:

1) is the small difference a result of a big move and then retracement back to the same area it was 8 hours earlier?

or

2) was it pretty much flat the whole 8 hours?


Is there a difference between the two? I would think if pa (price action) has been flat then a breakout is imminent. Vice versa for when pa has already made a big move. This is something to watch and note while we are testing this method.
  • #319
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:30pm Feb 9, 2011 4:30pm
Nice strategy. Clearly presented. Very similar to other slingshot strategies, but it has it's own twist. I would be intrested in comparing it to the Frankfurt Head Fake/London reversal strategy. The Frankfurt strategy does not always give you a signal, but when it does there is high probability that London will reverse. Perhaps you could use Frankfurt price action as a filter to tweak your entries. Just an idea. Good trades to all.....

Regards,

ps-- if you were going to use frankfurt open as a filter, you may need to look at more than one pair to trade. If you get a head fake at this time, it is often in only one currency pair (ie price lies close enough to some easy stop pickings). Still, the price action is often in G/U as it is a popular pair there.
  • #320
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:28pm Feb 9, 2011 6:28pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Here's the other thing we need to look at:

1) is the small difference a result of a big move and then retracement back to the same area it was 8 hours earlier?

or

2) was it pretty much flat the whole 8 hours?


Is there a difference between the two? I would think if pa (price action) has been flat then a breakout is imminent. Vice versa for when pa has already made a big move. This is something to watch and note while we are testing this method.
Now you're making it complicated

Good points - and yes, I think there is a difference. Question is, for those that truly want a "set and forget" system, is there a way to account for this without discretion?
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