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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #88,441
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:07am Feb 9, 2011 4:07am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi Ifmy, thanks for reply. Where was your FTA can you clarify please?

EDIT: Oh sorry!!! I was looking at the other open tab the totally different chart lol! I got it!!!
Yes it hit its FTA, but sometimes even this kind of setups will fail, and that will happen for sure. And that will erase a some 2-3 previous winners...
Happens (edit: nearly) every time
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  • #88,442
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:10am Feb 9, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Ifmyante
Hi Adi, I hear you mate

that RR paralysis kept me out of the cable PB the other day. I KNEW (we all knew) it was going to hit its FTA. I stayed behind and wished everyone else luck on their trade, knowing they wouldn't need it. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=87935

I had been through James16's very simple 'where is price going/where did price go?' and don't remember making one bad call, but when my realtime opportunity arose, I froze.

It's embarrassment like that that I learn from. I hoped my post would...
Also, Ifmy, here is the chart where FTA should be. First Trouble Area, many times I see traders just ignore it (because the RR would be so super small it is not worth taking it) but ignoring it doesn't mean it is not there.
One may say that FTA is different for different people. True. But if you go and objectively mark the First Trouble Area and exit full profit there, your risk reward would be like hmmm 10 times agianst you...

So really if you are going to take profit at FTA, you should have exited with just a few pips on this example...

That is what makes me worry so much....
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  • #88,443
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:18am Feb 9, 2011 4:18am
Quoting Adilius07
Also, Ifmy, here is the chart where FTA should be. First Trouble Area, many times I see traders just ignore it (because the RR would be so super small it is not worth taking it) but ignoring it doesn't mean it is not there.
One may say that FTA is different for different people. True. But if you go and objectively mark the First Trouble Area and exit full profit there, your risk reward would be like hmmm 10 times agianst you...

So really if you are going to take profit at FTA, you should have exited with just a few pips...
Hmm

the way I did the 'where's price going?' test was much more immediate than that. It simply counted the last few bars really. You may say I did it wrongly, but with the perfect results I got, I'd be happy to travel that road

  • #88,444
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:19am Feb 9, 2011 4:19am
Quoting Adilius07
Hey Kal, I agree for James (in regards to simplicity) but not for Jarroo's method. Do you really find Jarroo's mehod simple? I think it is the hardest one to master really...

I think it is actually the very same thing, just that J16 is doing it on the Daily chart & Jarroo is doing it at key points on the weekly chart.

I bet Jarroo's PPZ will line up almost exactly with Jarroo's, in fact I know they do as I have compared both of them.
  • #88,445
  • Edited 4:33am Feb 9, 2011 4:22am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting Adilius07
Also, Ifmy, here is the chart where FTA should be. First Trouble Area, many times I see traders just ignore it (because the RR would be so super small it is not worth taking it) but ignoring it doesn't mean it is not there.
One may say that FTA is different for different people. True. But if you go and objectively mark the First Trouble Area and exit full profit there, your risk reward would be like hmmm 10 times agianst you...

So really if you are going to take profit at FTA, you should have exited with just a few pips...
You seem to perceive trading in automatic manner Adi so let me quote something: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post4370586

Quoting Darkstar
.......What I wanted to say was that you shouldnt get discouraged by the inability to convert what you did into a repeatable system. The fact is you saw something that was interesting and you acted on it for a profit.

You'll find that many of your best trades are going to be one off events where some little voice in your head says you should take it. You heard that voice when you took the trade above but then you went and shit on it by trying to turn what you did into a system. Forget about the system and work on listening to that voice....
  • #88,446
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:25am Feb 9, 2011 4:25am
Quoting Greenhaze
You seem to perceive trading in automatic manner Adi so let me quote something:

Great post by DS.

Thanks GH
  • #88,447
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:33am Feb 9, 2011 4:33am
Quoting Greenhaze
You seem to perceive trading in automatic manner Adi so let me quote something:
Yes Greenhaze, I saw that post long ago, I read all of his posts.

This part:

"You'll find that many of your best trades are going to be one off events where some little voice in your head says you should take it. You heard that voice when you took the trade.."

That's how my close friend trades now. (with 30K live account, started last week) he doesn't belive in any methods, but his intuition and supersticious knowledge only...

When I find that trading is this (the above) I will quit. I promise

For now I believe in method, rules, discipline, experience, common sense... things like this. Do I want to automate it? Yes (as much as possible) but not to make it a system, I understand that this is not the way. But I also understand that for me having no method for managing trades (i.e. just not knowing how to and when to) is not the way neither... So I'm searching
  • #88,448
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:38am Feb 9, 2011 4:38am
Pinbar,your work is appreciated..keep Posting,its just been a month im into J16 n forex so all newbies like me will keep learning from your posts!!

Good Trading!!
  • #88,449
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:56am Feb 9, 2011 4:56am
Adi,

Keep up the hard work. It will pay off greatly down the road. Just to go into depth with what Greenhaze posted...

You are almost looking for the Holy Grail to trading. You are trying to back test and find that "on every single trade I do this and then this". You are struggling with "every single time I take a trade should I take it all off at FTA or half off at FTA and let half run, where do I place my stop, will I allow a full bar stop" ect.

The answer to your question is "every trade is different".

If you have a strong up trend and it prints a reversal bearish signal, you most likely will take off most your profit at the FTA. The FTA is a high probability, but fighting beyond that against the trend will be tough.

Where as if you get a nice continuation bar at a greatly confluenced area, your stops can probably be much tighter and your FTA will be further out, plus you can let it run more.

Then you have break out trades where you can go down in time frames to look for SL placement and your R:R might be as high as 3:1.

Then you can trade like XYZ, where you see a nice set up then go down the time frames to look for matching PA on a smaller time frame with a smaller stop loss at a key level.

There are many ways to look at each trade. And you are probably not going to "always do ____ and ____" instead your plan will depend upon many factors (trend, FTA location, reason for entering the trade, ect.).

And even after all of this, if you watch price move once you get into a trade you can start to see if it is going to go your way or not. If not, you can often cut your losses before your original stop loss is hit. If you expected price to explode in one direction and instead it is lingering around all day long and the set-up looks unlikely, you can then look to reduce your stop.

Basically what I am saying is there is no "I do this ____ and then ____" process to trading. It is a mix of both logical decision making and art.
  • #88,450
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:09am Feb 9, 2011 5:09am
Quoting unlv_tj
Adi,

Keep up the hard work....
Hey TJ, thank you very much for your advice! You know by reading your post I think I see a little light and a possible solution. I really tried to oversimplify everything to one simple solution!!! Kind of this or that only...

But what if, just like you said "every trade is different"...what if I try to categorize my setups.. like trend, range, breakout... if I do so then for the setup that occur with a strong trend I will try to hold (while at BE), with range or breakouts I will just exit at FTA. Hmm.. That may be a solution?
I feel it maybe, once in a while I will catch a true runner with a trend but many other times I will have those fast FTA trades...

Yeah, Greenhaze was right I try to automate everything lol, but for me is much easier really (psychologically easier to have some rules) so when I have a loser I know I was following my plan (at least).

Hey sounds good really So maybe that is the solution!!! I will have TWO trade management scenarios!

Thank you TJ, and thank you everyone very much, see sometimes it's like this.. you think it's such a stupid little nothing Adilius is so concerned with, but Adilius cannot sleep for nights and nights thinking about it, lol, and the solution could be so really simple..

Now I will wait for friday, get really drunk, and will come beat the markets next week

Thanks!

EDIT: and if I blow this account I could easily blame TJ now for this his advice, haha
  • #88,451
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:14am Feb 9, 2011 5:14am
I have a query that has always amazed me about James 16. Does anyone else seem to notice how much harder and complicated many traders try to make things than what they have to be? I have watched this thread for a few years now and the junior traders make things so complicated and look far to hard to find things that arent their, whilst the seniors make it look simple and easy. In my opinion thats because it really should be treated that simply. Does anyone else notice this or feel the same way?

Anyways a recent trade. GBPNZD daily. Half profit and half stopped BE.
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  • #88,452
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:17am Feb 9, 2011 5:17am
Quoting Adilius07

EDIT: and if I blow this account I could easily blame TJ now for this his advice, haha
  • #88,453
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:35am Feb 9, 2011 5:35am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi, its me again... man I am going crazy..never in my life I have not had such a hard time making a choice!!! I'm about RR again and how to manage trades.

Hey Adi,

I've seen you tossing and thinking about this for past couple of months. Tough one hey.....

I can tell you what definately works for me. Its really simple. I think we need the occasional runner to keep the account ticking over. Like you say if we continually take full profit at FTA then 1 loss will wip out 3 winners. The best thing in my eyes to do is protect yourself whilst giving your trade a chance to make big bucks.

I personally take 1/3 profit always at the FTA. I then move whole position to BE and manage with subjectivity and look for a possible runner and taregt next logical areas or in some cases trail my stop.

IMO to not give yourself a chance to make a nice runner eill eventually hurt you.

This year ive had 5 wins (small RR) and 3 losses. One of my wins was a once in 6 month trade that netted me 5/1 RR. This covered all losses and added 2 RR to account. The other winners then even though they are small turn into regular small profits adding to the nice rising equity curve.

PAT
  • #88,454
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:49am Feb 9, 2011 5:49am
Hi all,

Anyone watching GBPAUD thoughts appreciated

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  • #88,455
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:04am Feb 9, 2011 6:04am
Quoting stewrigh
Hi all,

Anyone watching GBPAUD thoughts appreciated

Attachment
Hi Stew

I see nothing but a range between 50 and 61.8 of last downmove. No PA on my feed
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  • #88,456
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:15am Feb 9, 2011 6:15am
Quoting Pinbar
Hi, Edge

Well, you could be right with the over analysis over multiple time frames.

One thing I do not agree with in your post is the PBT&CA or B, being of no value. And the reason, I am keeping up with this is because, I am trying to find areas where we are highly probably to see PA setups, instead of after the fact.

Thanks for your rather abrasive input.

I shall reduce my posting and visitation of this thread, don't want to offend anyone else.
Keep posting my friend. I enjoy reading your posts...there are quite a few I skip but none of yours
  • #88,457
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:15am Feb 9, 2011 6:15am
[quote=stewrigh;4384159]Hi all,

Anyone watching GBPAUD thoughts appreciated

quote]


Looks a lot clearer on the daily for me. Just see chop chop on 4 hr chart. This could be looking to roll over soon back south.

Interesting level those bar lows. Also that pin that got discussed a lot over weekend went exactly to the bar lows and price now looking to retest this area. Hmmmmmmm.......
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  • #88,458
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:18am Feb 9, 2011 6:18am
Quoting spookie94
when you place an order do you add the spread and a buffer?
Yep, a small buffer & spread.
Pipcrawler
  • #88,459
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:27am Feb 9, 2011 6:27am
Quoting Ifmyante
Hi Stew

I see nothing but a range between 50 and 61.8 of last downmove. No PA on my feed
No PA on my feed either ............
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Pipcrawler
  • #88,460
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:33am Feb 9, 2011 6:33am
It's got a lot of obstacles in it's way but if this comes out as a h&s we might reach 1.3200 in the near future.Let's wait and see...
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