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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #201
  • Feb 8, 2011 6:28pm Feb 8, 2011 6:28pm
might be useful...
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File Type: pdf Market_Profile_Basics.pdf   471 KB | 2,687 downloads
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #202
  • Feb 8, 2011 6:59pm Feb 8, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting mima
might be useful...
Third time's the charm
  • #203
  • Feb 8, 2011 7:34pm Feb 8, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting scrat
another question is, if we are working with daily profiles, when can we consider the day to start and to end? forex market opens monday and closes friday, so a daily time frame would only be arbitrary... right?
would really like to hear your opinions..

Quoting tgwhbb
as most bank roll-over at 5PM NY time, that is what I use for the start of my day. You can also use 7PM (the asian session open) and there is little difference between them....
This is the reason I originally used 1700 hrs New York time as my start/stop time. I have recently migrated to using 0300 hrs New York time ( London Open) and run it for 24 hrs.

If I was going to tade the Yen or the Aussie$ I think I would use the Asian session for the open.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #204
  • Feb 8, 2011 7:40pm Feb 8, 2011 7:40pm
As far as low volume nods go, I come at them from a VSA perspective.

Low volume means little professional activity at that price level, so I figure if its not that important to them then its not that important to me.

In reality, you will find that the market does want to spend a little time in these underdeveloped areas. Check out the value trading zone webinars on traderkingdom.com
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #205
  • Feb 8, 2011 7:48pm Feb 8, 2011 7:48pm
Quoting HiddenGap
As far as low volume nods go, I come at them from a VSA perspective..Low volume means little professional activity at that price level, so I figure if its not that important to them then its not that important to me...
The exception would of course be single prints, but then again single prints are hard to see without the letters.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #206
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:14pm Feb 8, 2011 9:14pm
Quoting HiddenGap
This is the reason I originally used 1700 hrs New York time as my start/stop time. I have recently migrated to using 0300 hrs New York time ( London Open) and run it for 24 hrs.

If I was going to tade the Yen or the Aussie$ I think I would use the Asian session for the open.
interesting. Are your recent charts using the london open as the "start" time for a profile? If so there is not much difference from the value areas i'm seeing based on asian open.
Change is the only constant
  • #207
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:31pm Feb 8, 2011 9:31pm
This example is beautiful, but alas not a trade taken.

The Responsive Buying at unfair lows based on the Developing Value Area turns into Initiative Buying as price moves off the Value Area High from the previous day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current3.png Size: 70 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #208
  • Feb 8, 2011 11:08pm Feb 8, 2011 11:08pm
Flat - closed all trades , got spooked new day new chart, new perspective.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flat.gif Size: 41 KB
hifx
  • #209
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:11am Feb 9, 2011 1:11am
It was mentioned in the VSA thread in another way, but yesterday was the narrowest value area in 4 days. If this market moves to imbalance it could be big. Simply put, the day type today very well could be a trend day. Play accordingly.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #210
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:04am Feb 9, 2011 8:04am
Somethings odd on EU...not sure what to make of it just yet.

Asian IB was 9 pips, narrow by all means. I was expecting a breakout above DIBH after the nice test/shaekout of DIBL. price indeed broke out above DIBH but not as high as I was expecting at it was capped by yesterdays VAH. That tells me Asia is not leading the move, which in retrospect is probably a good thing

the london came around with a 30 pip IB so its price range was to be expected. The shakeout to the asian IBL (and roughly 1.5IBL for london session) was well bought, so another sign of strength.

The odd part is now...the NY IB which is at 40 pips and capped at the high of the NFP bar. I was in fact expecting a much narrower IB to support the large breakout move theory. On the plus side, the IB range is consistently moving up, and while the NY IB was forming london/NY successfully broke the london IBH. Yet with an IB wider than anticipated, i'm now curious if we will in fact get the large breakout move today.

The stop on my long is set to BE just in case and i'll probably get stopped out. Let's see what happens.
Change is the only constant
  • #211
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:13am Feb 9, 2011 8:13am
Quoting tgwhbb
On the plus side, the IB range is consistently moving up, and while the NY IB was forming london/NY successfully broke the london IBH. Yet with an IB wider than anticipated, i'm now curious if we will in fact get the large breakout move today.

The stop on my long is set to BE just in case and i'll probably get stopped out. Let's see what happens.
we just got a NS/test on the 5M right at the london IBH. That's good, maybe i won't get stopped out after all 3720 is my initial target - DIBH - factoring in the not so narrow NY IB. That assumes we break london's DIBH at 3688
Change is the only constant
  • #212
  • Edited 9:18am Feb 9, 2011 9:06am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting tgwhbb
we just got a NS/test on the 5M right at the london IBH. That's good, maybe i won't get stopped out after all 3720 is my initial target - DIBH - factoring in the not so narrow NY IB. That assumes we break london's DIBH at 3688
We just closed a 30M bar above london's DIBH, and just prior a nice shakeout at NY IBH. 3720 should now be in the cards for today.

EDIT: Sorry for the messy chart...need to fix my indi...

UPDATE: 3720 practically hit (3718 high on my live and demo brokers). I'm thinking if EU comes back down to test london's DIBH before the close we could see a decent push above NY's DIBH of 3721. by stop moved to just under london's IBH (3659) for now, will reevaluate after NY session.
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #213
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:49am Feb 9, 2011 9:49am
Take a look at the 1 hour chart attached, here's what i've noticed about LVNs (low volume nodes), or at least "single print" areas.

Each time there was a quick move resulting in LVNs, it was done through prior area of demand. That could mean one of 2 things IMO. 1) the market wants lower prices and needs to get through the demand quickly, or 2) the market wants higher prices but the market makers want to fill buy orders below the current demand level (alas i'm not the only one that's greedy) and trick weak holders into selling. So how do you differentiate...it's in the follow through IMO. Effort vs result as VSA states it. Confirmation comes in the form of a slower up move since it takes time to absorb the sellers as prices move back up. you can see this happening in #1 and #2 indicated on the chart, note the up move after the quick down move. and EU is now starting it's trek up into area #3 so we could expect possibly slower, but consistent, move up in this area to confirm the demand.

This also coincides with VSA principles of the market not liking wide spread bars on ultra high volume
thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H1 2011-02-09 at 10.28.43 AM.png Size: 109 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #214
  • Feb 9, 2011 10:02am Feb 9, 2011 10:02am
very good. you just hit the nail on the head.
as HG said, it seems that market wants to spend only a little time there. it's going quickly through these areas because price must be marked up or marked down to lock uninspired traders in... and what would represent such areas if price must be quickly moved through them? well well, surprise... they are the real _______ & __________.

just my two cents -

Quoting tgwhbb
Take a look at the 1 hour chart attached, here's what i've noticed about LVNs (low volume nodes), or at least "single print" areas.

Each time there was a quick move resulting in LVNs, it was done through prior area of demand....
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #215
  • Feb 9, 2011 10:08am Feb 9, 2011 10:08am
and let's look at this example - this is a profile based on the tick activity for the last 24 hr (NOT for the day - it's a dynamic indicator that looks back 24 hr from the current moment).
i marked the lowest volume area by double lines (upper and lower limits, respectively). let's see what happens there -
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24hr - pvp.gif Size: 27 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #216
  • Feb 9, 2011 10:38am Feb 9, 2011 10:38am
after a few minutes it came very close to lower lvn. shake-out? possibly. why would it happen so close to lvn ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24hr - pvp.gif Size: 30 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #217
  • Edited 10:48am Feb 9, 2011 10:42am | Edited 10:48am
Quoting Scrat
after a few minutes it came very close to lower lvn. shake-out? possibly. why would it happen so close to lvn ...
agree, it dropped through there to about the IBH and bounced. but the bounce is on low volume...we may still go down some more to pick up more steam?

EDIT: pic with low volume i don't like. Stop set to just below that just in case.
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #218
  • Feb 9, 2011 10:57am Feb 9, 2011 10:57am
Quoting tgwhbb
agree, it dropped through there to about the IBH and bounced. but the bounce is on low volume...we may still go down some more to pick up more steam?

EDIT: pic with low volume i don't like. Stop set to just below that just in case.
ah! zoom out! H1 looks like a very nice test/shakeout type bar of today's IBH and yesterday's high if it can hold 3680
Change is the only constant
  • #219
  • Feb 9, 2011 11:09am Feb 9, 2011 11:09am
This sudden move north through the higher LVN should indicate strength too.
  • #220
  • Feb 9, 2011 11:10am Feb 9, 2011 11:10am
well... can it?
next target should be 3769.

Quoting tgwhbb
ah! zoom out! H1 looks like a very nice test/shakeout type bar of today's IBH and yesterday's high if it can hold 3680
Nihil Sine Deo.
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