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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #161
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:54pm Feb 7, 2011 5:54pm
I swear there is a tear in my eye right now...

TOS new update
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  • #162
  • Feb 7, 2011 6:00pm Feb 7, 2011 6:00pm
Its better than Christmas
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  • #163
  • Feb 7, 2011 6:30pm Feb 7, 2011 6:30pm
Wait a Sec this is eu 1h followed by 15m, how come on the 1h we are above the previous day's POC and on the 15m we are below?

The previous day as defined by TOS starts at 5pm and is 24 hors. The previous day started on Sunday night at 5pm and ends Monday at 5pm.

So what's going on??
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  • #164
  • Feb 7, 2011 6:38pm Feb 7, 2011 6:38pm
Here is another look, 1h on the left 15m on the right. The red lines are the same I just changed time frames and cropped 2 screenshots.

Edit:

It doesn't seem to have that problem with futures volume profiles so I'll be using those
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  • #165
  • Feb 7, 2011 6:51pm Feb 7, 2011 6:51pm
I'm not used to seeing the market with value areas on it in real time. We're testing yesterday's VAH

Edit:

Also happens to be last week's close
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  • #166
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:06pm Feb 7, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting frankkn
I'm not used to seeing the market with value areas on it in real time. We're testing yesterday's VAH

Edit:

Also happens to be last week's close
Wait one sec.... what was previously yesterday's VAH is now no longer yesterday's VAH when I switch to the 15m...
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  • #167
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:45pm Feb 7, 2011 9:45pm
Price hit yesterday POC, now I'm looking for a ND up bar on 15 chart for short entry.
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  • #168
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:22pm Feb 7, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting alexm
Price hit yesterday POC, now I'm looking for a ND up bar on 15 chart for short entry.
I would be careful with shorts at the moment. Monday saw the first bout of initiative buying since last Tuesday. EU should be heading up...i would say last wednesday's naked POC at around 1.3800 is the first target.
Change is the only constant
  • #169
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:12am Feb 8, 2011 2:12am
Quoting tgwhbb
I would be careful with shorts at the moment. Monday saw the first bout of initiative buying since last Tuesday. EU should be heading up...i would say last wednesday's naked POC at around 1.3800 is the first target.
Saw price being supported at 1.3634, now buy with target 1.3719
  • #170
  • Edited 8:05am Feb 8, 2011 7:49am | Edited 8:05am
This is euro futures with a volume histogram. I wonder how accurate this is? Can anyone help me compare?

Edit:

So it looks like after yesterday's non-trend day price moved above yesterdays VAH. Today, responsive buyers came in as price was pushed below today's value area. The buyers were sitting at yesterday's value area high.
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  • #171
  • Feb 8, 2011 8:13am Feb 8, 2011 8:13am
Once again, these charts may not be accurate, as I have yet to confirm their accuracy yet.

That being said today's developing value area low is lining up nicely with last Thursday's VAL.
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  • #172
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:02am Feb 8, 2011 9:02am
M30 from collective Fx demo. for your volume comparison.

Of note, London has not yet participated in any initiative buying, only asia and NY since yesterday. London has only been responsive so far (both responsive buying and selling). Note sure if that is a good or bad thing just yet

Initial balances seem to be working extremely well (at least since watching them unfold live since sunday. Yesterday's NY IB was quite wide at 50 pips, and EU ranged for most of the NY session until there was initiative buying to break above the IB high. Today's NY IB is narrower at 30 pips, signalling a likely trend type session. The NY IB low (which is 1 pip below the london IB low) has just been tested and held quite well with some good volume. EU should now go for the IBH at 3653. Let's see if there is more initiative buying there.
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Change is the only constant
  • #173
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:23am Feb 8, 2011 9:23am
Quoting tgwhbb
EU should now go for the IBH at 3653. Let's see if there is more initiative buying there.
EU hit 3650 (London IBH) and reversed. But on the 5M it looks like absorption of the responsive sellers IMO. next target is DIBH at 3688. That coincides with todays range based on ATR14.

A thought. If we make a run for DIBH before london close, that signals possible london initiative buyers as well which would be a good sign for bulls as all 3 sessions would be involved.
Change is the only constant
  • #174
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:30am Feb 8, 2011 9:30am
Took 2 entries off of the bounce of the VAL both at BE as there may be sellers at VAH
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  • #175
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:39am Feb 8, 2011 9:39am
Quoting frankkn
Took 2 entries off of the bounce of the VAL both at BE as there may be sellers at VAH
Frank, can you post spot forex chart...I have MP indicator with bunch of lines and I am not sure which ones are Upper and lower values.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #176
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:42am Feb 8, 2011 9:42am
Quoting frankkn
Took 2 entries off of the bounce of the VAL both at BE as there may be sellers at VAH
Nice! I took the 2nd one. at BE as well. bulls seems to be defending the developing POC.
Change is the only constant
  • #177
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:52am Feb 8, 2011 9:52am
Quoting tgwhbb
EU hit 3650 (London IBH) and reversed. But on the 5M it looks like absorption of the responsive sellers IMO. next target is DIBH at 3688. That coincides with todays range based on ATR14.

A thought. If we make a run for DIBH before london close, that signals possible london initiative buyers as well which would be a good sign for bulls as all 3 sessions would be involved.
looks like london may be joining the initiative buying...EU could probably come back down to test the IBH from london at 3650. note that IBH coincides with the developing VAH
Change is the only constant
  • #178
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:58am Feb 8, 2011 9:58am
Quoting mima
Frank, can you post spot forex chart...I have MP indicator with bunch of lines and I am not sure which ones are Upper and lower values.
I will post some as soon as the issues get straightened out with the TOS indicator. These are 24 hours profiles starting at 5pm each day, but the levels change depending on what time frame you're looking at. The futures isn't so bad but I'm still waiting on some confirmation.
  • #179
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:59am Feb 8, 2011 9:59am
Quoting tgwhbb
Nice! I took the 2nd one. at BE as well. bulls seems to be defending the developing POC.
My second got stopped and my first I closed for +33 because it seemed like there could be some responsive selling outside of the VAH.
  • #180
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:10am Feb 8, 2011 10:10am
These are my live trades for today and yesterday,based om AMT &VSA.Targeting 3700/30 and above next 24 hrs? S/L 35806.
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