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  • #161
  • Feb 6, 2011 4:16pm Feb 6, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting Happy68
Hy Olu,

I see something unclear in your E/J trade. As I understood, you have 2 signals:

1. For direction and place - 100sma + Stoch (for example)

AFTER that, when you have signal 1 you go to:

2. Signal for entry - for example 1-2-3 formation.

In your E/J trade you have only the 2. signal. Or I miss something?

If you want to entry on daily whit 1-2-3, you have to have signal 1 on weekly, better monthly. And then, your stop have to be above point 3 from 1-2-3.

If you use the daily 1-2-3 as signal 1, you have to make the entry on 4h-chart...

Hi Happy68

My last ej trade was off a 123 on the daily chart. I like your idea of dropping down to the next timeframe to look for entry. Unfortunately I cant do that because I cant be there to check it out. So I place stop trades to get in. In the case of the ej the entry was a break of support around 112.40.

I am currently trying out entry by limit orders too as it appears price comes back after initial support or resistance break

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #162
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:56am Feb 7, 2011 7:56am
Got to the monitor this morning before going to work to find out that my trade had been stopped out @112.20 (-100pips) Ouch!

Re-entered the trade putting a stop above the downtrend line @112.00 this morning. The only confidence I had to get in was my elliott wave belief that we should be exploding to the downside. Secondly my 123 down has not been invalidated till we take out the (2) hump which is @112.90.

As I didnt write about re-entering the trade I am uploading 2 graphics. One is a 4hr chart of the eurjpy showing price respecting the downtrend line and the other is a graphic of my platform showing the new trade.
Attached Images
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #163
  • Feb 7, 2011 8:04am Feb 7, 2011 8:04am
Can we break last weeks low? That would open up a lot of possibilities. I dont know where this is going but it might be an idea to add more on a break of last weeks low looking for that target around 106.70

Comments anyone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy-weekly-07022011-1400uk.JPG Size: 98 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #164
  • Feb 7, 2011 8:07am Feb 7, 2011 8:07am
By the way does anyone know any fundamental news why the eurjpy rallied on friday and then rallied and tanked today. Any news release?

While we are technical traders I like to keep an eye on anything that can scupper any TA assumptions...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #165
  • Edited 8:23am Feb 7, 2011 8:21am | Edited 8:23am
A chart of the eurchf has been uploaded for your consideration.

Price is below the 100sma
Downtrend line observed touching 3 points
Price double topped just touching the trendline down
Daily stoch turning down
price unable to go past 1.3068 for 4 weeks

A sell might be in order here. Or to be conservative the sell of a breakdown below 1.2779
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #166
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:14pm Feb 7, 2011 5:14pm
Quoting Olu
Got to the monitor this morning before going to work to find out that my trade had been stopped out @112.20 (-100pips) Ouch!

Re-entered the trade putting a stop above the downtrend line @112.00 this morning. The only confidence I had to get in was my elliott wave belief that we should be exploding to the downside. Secondly my 123 down has not been invalidated till we take out the (2) hump which is @112.90.

As I didnt write about re-entering the trade I am uploading 2 graphics. One is a 4hr chart of the eurjpy showing price respecting the downtrend...
Olu,

I'm waiting for the price to close below weekly pivot 111.72 and the same case(price above weekly pivot) with EURCHF too [as you can see the price did bounce off of the weekly pivot 1.2932]. BTW you did get a good entry on EURJPY, did u do the BE as the price did go your way for 78 pips?

I hope I'm not messing with your method with my pivots, please let me know... if so I will not.
  • #167
  • Feb 7, 2011 6:55pm Feb 7, 2011 6:55pm
Quoting deepleo
Olu,

I'm waiting for the price to close below weekly pivot 111.72 and the same case(price above weekly pivot) with EURCHF too [as you can see the price did bounce off of the weekly pivot 1.2932]. BTW you did get a good entry on EURJPY, did u do the BE as the price did go your way for 78 pips?

I hope I'm not messing with your method with my pivots, please let me know... if so I will not.
Hi Deepleo.

Thanks for your question and visit to this thread. Yes I did get out of the trade today but did not recover all the 100pips. I recovered 60pips.

By the way I still believe this pair is going down. At the same time I am aware of one of the rules of trading:

Dont get married to a trade

So I am back to my simplistic analysis of various pairs like I did with the eurchf. Simplicity ids the best

Like GolferFx said there is a lot of psychology in this business
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy-closed-trade.jpg Size: 14 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #168
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:01pm Feb 7, 2011 7:01pm
Sold eurjpy @111.20 closed @112.20 (-100pips)
Sold eurjpy @112.00 closed @111.40 (+60pips)
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #169
  • Edited 8:42pm Feb 7, 2011 8:36pm | Edited 8:42pm
Guys please find uploaded a chart of the daily chart of the eurjpy.

I said in the last post that we do should not get married to any trade. I think I might be blind sided be my belief for some serious downside pips that I did not see the subtle signal of my system to go long. You have read my analysis so far before I take a trade so when the same words are used in the opposite sense you would know that I am being consistent. Foolhardy but consistent.

Price above the 100sma
Daily stochastics is up
price pierced the 100sma but closed above it - twice
price reversed right as support area -110.7 area
price is above the ichimoku cloud (new check! thanks Golfer)
Price decline from the 114area to the 110.70 are appeears to be in 3 waves(abc) -bullish

negatives are as follows
Downtrend line around 112.10 area
weekly chart price under the 100sma
stoch on the weekly just crossing down


Therefore immediate price direction is up wards... Conservative traders might want to buy after the breal of the trendline ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy-daily-08022011-0220uk.jpg Size: 134 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #170
  • Feb 8, 2011 7:59am Feb 8, 2011 7:59am
There is plenty of action around resistance in the gbpchf. Are we going to roll over and go down?
I have uploaded a chart...
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #171
  • Feb 8, 2011 8:51am Feb 8, 2011 8:51am
Short [email protected]
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #172
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:59am Feb 9, 2011 1:59am
Quoting Olu
Short [email protected]
Closed for 100pip loss.

In fact this was one of the quickest 100pip losses I have had in recent times. Laid on the trade lunchtime at work. got home and boom trade had already been stopped out.

The eurjpy has broken the downtrend line as I thought it would. The usdjpy is showing signs of life
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #173
  • Feb 9, 2011 7:36am Feb 9, 2011 7:36am
The reason for the strength of the eurjpy is the weakness of the Yen. I have uploaded the chart of the usdjpy pair for your consideration.

Price is attacking the 100sma from below where it has resided for a very long time. In fact as I type now price has nosed up through the line
Last support @80.91 held
A downtrend line can be drawn off all the recent highs on the way down and price is attacking that trendline.
I will not be surprised if price shoots up after the Bernanke speach tonight

This pair is a long term buy as we can head off to 86 and beyond...

Please do your own analysis and if you have a different view post it on this thread so that we can discuss it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-daily-09022011-1325uk.JPG Size: 69 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #174
  • Edited 1:46pm Feb 9, 2011 1:36pm | Edited 1:46pm
Olu,

I did go LONG on [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected] because of the following reasons:

UJ
1. Price is above weekly pivot[81.99]
2. Price closed above monthly pivot[82.27] and a daily resistance [82.32]yesterday

EJ [closed [email protected] and 2 lots @BE]
1. Price is above weekly pivot[111.71]
2. Price closed above the daily resistance[111.92]

EU [closed [email protected] and 2 lots@BE]
1. Price is above weekly pivot[1.3637]
2. price closed above daily resistance [1.3604]

EC [closed [email protected], lot [email protected] and lot3@BE]
1. Price is above weekly pivot[1.2932]
2. Price bounced off of weekly pivot on 02.07.11

I got stopped out @BE on USDCHF long and hit stop loss on AUDUSD long.[-58 x 3 lots]
  • #175
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:58pm Feb 9, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting Olu
Closed for 100pip loss.

In fact this was one of the quickest 100pip losses I have had in recent times. Laid on the trade lunchtime at work. got home and boom trade had already been stopped out.

The eurjpy has broken the downtrend line as I thought it would. The usdjpy is showing signs of life
Olu,

I don't trade GBPCHF as it's too choppy for me.
I wouldn't have taken that short as I go with pivots, support and resistance.
Price was above weekly pivot and last week's price closed above a weekly resistance [1.5335 area]
  • #176
  • Feb 10, 2011 6:36am Feb 10, 2011 6:36am
We live to fight another day. Yes you are right the gbpchf is really very choppy. However I have had very good experiences with this pair in times past

I went short the audusd last night @1.0080 60pips stop looking for parity and below
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #177
  • Feb 10, 2011 6:42am Feb 10, 2011 6:42am
Same here went short AUDUSD @ 1.0085 just after employment data released, it is doing very good so far.
  • #178
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:07am Feb 10, 2011 7:07am
Quoting Heliosdz
Same here went short AUDUSD @ 1.0085 just after employment data released, it is doing very good so far.
Well done. I was faffing about around that time I would have gotten in @85 too.

it appears we are going into a time of aud weakness...

The next post is about gbpaud. Comments are welcome...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #179
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:10am Feb 10, 2011 7:10am
Quoting deepleo
Olu,

I did go LONG on [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected] because of the following reasons:

UJ
1. Price is above weekly pivot[81.99]
2. Price closed above monthly pivot[82.27] and a daily resistance [82.32]yesterday

EJ [closed [email protected] and 2 lots @BE]
1. Price is above weekly pivot[111.71]
2. Price closed above the daily resistance[111.92]

EU [closed [email protected] and 2 lots@BE]
1. Price is above weekly pivot[1.3637]
2. price closed above daily resistance [1.3604]

EC [closed [email protected], lot [email protected]...
Well done on the trades. It is good to know that others are seeing what I am seeing. Shame about the aussie. It did look as if it was going to the moon
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #180
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:19am Feb 10, 2011 7:19am
A daily chart is uploaded for your consideration

Price is nosing up through the 100sma
Price is attacking the downtrend lile
Stoch has turned up
The whole recent price structure looks like a flag (correct me if I'm wrong)

On the whole price action is constructive and long termish buys should be considered
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-daily-10022011-1300uk.JPG Size: 75 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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