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  • #27,941
  • Feb 7, 2011 1:29am Feb 7, 2011 1:29am
Quoting bskwak1124
hi mate, actually seems like you have more accurate data than other people have. well, at that time, it seems to be a good spot to short, as those natural disaster seems to have a big hit on australia. so i dont blame them to go on short.
I don't have more accurate data than other people. I am following the rule that your chart gives you all what you want. I am technical trader and never trade fundamental. I make a plan and stick to it. I try to make a plan on price and on time as i can, not only on price which many people try to do. It still not yet accurate as i want but i am working on it. If my plan works, it's a very good reward, otherwise, cut my losses as soon as possible following the rule that if you are right, the market will go to your direction soon. The trading is a matter of rules and unexpectable. Money is made only by believing on that.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,942
  • Feb 7, 2011 1:49am Feb 7, 2011 1:49am
Quoting Razor_trader
A question, and this might apply to more than yourself but why would you be looking to short once the market is moving back in the long direction (picking tops) and if you believe it will be there wouldnt the smart option...
Fair enough, your inquiry.

Firstly I don't believe in trends, it's rubbish imo. What I do believe in is the targeting of stops. Unidirectional price movements occur when either sell volume eclipses buy volume and vice versa, at least for the retail segment it may seem - and this seems to have an inverse correlation. I will not go into detail on the way I trade but following trends does not work for me, Instead I try to identify levels where most would bail and capitalize accordingly... Of course this doesn't work all the time but it has for me, more often than not.

Oh and I only short on any pair, I don't go long squat. Out of the hundreds of trades I've made about ~20 have been Long. Sure I miss out on %50 percent of all moves but I'm not gonna complain. If I feel an instrument is bullish, I wait it out until the bears have tapped out, then I enter.

  • #27,943
  • Feb 7, 2011 1:58am Feb 7, 2011 1:58am
Quoting Warwick
Fair enough, your inquiry.

Firstly I don't believe in trends, it's rubbish imo. What I do believe in is the targeting of stops. Unidirectional price movements occur when either sell volume eclipses buy volume and vice versa, at least for the retail segment it may seem - and this seems to have an inverse correlation. I will not go into detail on the way I trade but following trends does not work for me, Instead I try to identify levels where most would bail and capitalize accordingly... Of course this doesn't work all...
I find that a bit strange, (not criticizing you of course) i can understand stock or ETF shorting being an advantage, but currencies???
Biggest joker
  • #27,944
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:55am Feb 7, 2011 5:55am
i see 2 turning points.

i prefer top one.
can come down later for 2nd one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,945
  • Feb 7, 2011 6:54am Feb 7, 2011 6:54am
Quoting Venice
Took a cheeky short at 1.013. Will monitor this trade as it goes.
Consolidating pair boring BS. Price is right where I left it last night. lol

New LL formed last night. Let's see if we can hold onto a LH.
  • #27,946
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:26am Feb 7, 2011 7:26am
Quoting Venice
Consolidating pair boring BS. Price is right where I left it last night. lol

New LL formed last night. Let's see if we can hold onto a LH.

1.0155
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #27,947
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:43am Feb 7, 2011 7:43am
not much of movement today, assume will be like this for another couple of days, until before unemployment rate. more probability of going over 1.02 and going to .025 maybe .03
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,948
  • Feb 7, 2011 8:23am Feb 7, 2011 8:23am
Quoting bskwak1124
not much of movement today, assume will be like this for another couple of days, until before unemployment rate. more probability of going over 1.02 and going to .025 maybe .03
Consolidating price is the worst when your trades are based on the daily candles. Have to wait a day or two before you know if you can close your trade and free up the margin or if you can ride it out a little longer.

A/U gets a short leash on the short side from me.
  • #27,949
  • Feb 7, 2011 8:51am Feb 7, 2011 8:51am
It seems like every time the Aussie makes a decent move downwards, it immediately get's canceled out by an up move.

These interest rates aren't going to last forever.

Does anyone else feel like the aussie is coiled extremely tight to the upside? Granted, I don't think it' s going to let go yet... but, when it does, it seems like it's going to fall off a cliff with all these people who are in it for the interest rate finally start scaling out.
  • #27,950
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:03am Feb 7, 2011 9:03am
Quoting Venice
It seems like every time the Aussie makes a decent move downwards, it immediately get's canceled out by an up move.

These interest rates aren't going to last forever.

Does anyone else feel like the aussie is coiled extremely tight to the upside? Granted, I don't think it' s going to let go yet... but, when it does, it seems like it's going to fall off a cliff with all these people who are in it for the interest rate finally start scaling out.
I agree Venice. however like a big ship it would take time before it turns. We have to be careful not to be chew up in its propellers waiting for this turn...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,951
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:06am Feb 7, 2011 9:06am
So does this mean that we are all floating on water waiting to sink to the bottom with no hope of seeing daylight again and with no hope of ever walking on water let alone floating above it?
  • #27,952
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:06am Feb 7, 2011 9:06am
Won't bears make any move?

http://www.clipartguide.com/_named_c...part_image.jpg

My short trade is still floating since friday
  • #27,953
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:12am Feb 7, 2011 9:12am
Quoting FX-Petra
I believe there is a Chinese holiday approaching. I suspect this bullish move has to do with China exchanges with Aussie. Look for at least 2 cosecutive 4hr bearish candles before you short.

Regards,
Chinese New Year going on for several days. No move south. Seemed like a good thought at the time. My trading year is off to a SLOOOOW start. I've got to get back in the groove and on my game!!!

Regards,
  • #27,954
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:15am Feb 7, 2011 9:15am
Quoting Venice
It seems like every time the Aussie makes a decent move downwards, it immediately get's canceled out by an up move.

These interest rates aren't going to last forever.

Does anyone else feel like the aussie is coiled extremely tight to the upside? Granted, I don't think it' s going to let go yet... but, when it does, it seems like it's going to fall off a cliff with all these people who are in it for the interest rate finally start scaling out.
That's what happens when the carry trade unwinds. Take a look at GBP/JPY around New Year a few years ago. When it went pop, it was one brutal ass kicking for carry trade holders. I remenber it well, becasuse I was one of them!

Regards,
  • #27,955
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:21am Feb 7, 2011 9:21am
Quoting Astroman
So does this mean that we are all floating on water waiting to sink to the bottom with no hope of seeing daylight again and with no hope of ever walking on water let alone floating above it?
We are all floating on water alright but far away from the propellers. Thereby not getting chewed up
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,956
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:21am Feb 7, 2011 9:21am
well, if i am not wrong, chinese people will be partying for this week too, so i am not surprise if game change happens next week or maybe after the unemployment figures... so, we will see.... at least last week was a steady rise from .98 to this level now... but today, tmr and the day after... will be hard to tell.... so buckle up people
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,957
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:22am Feb 7, 2011 10:22am
Quoting bskwak1124
well, if i am not wrong, chinese people will be partying for this week too, so i am not surprise if game change happens next week or maybe after the unemployment figures... so, we will see.... at least last week was a steady rise from .98 to this level now... but today, tmr and the day after... will be hard to tell.... so buckle up people


We are buckled and waiting...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,958
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:31am Feb 7, 2011 10:31am
Quoting FX-Petra
Chinese New Year going on for several days. No move south. Seemed like a good thought at the time. My trading year is off to a SLOOOOW start. I've got to get back in the groove and on my game!!!

Regards,
Same here Petra. I think I need to just leave the Aussie alone for now. It has been kicking my arse all year so far. I can't seem to get into rhythm with it, down or up.
  • #27,959
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:17am Feb 7, 2011 11:17am
fucking AUSSIE > USD... ? wtf...
US Dollar are craps......................omg....
  • #27,960
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:17am Feb 7, 2011 11:17am
it's really ashame to you Americans...
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