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Ichimoku forever

  • #15,781
  • Feb 7, 2011 2:34am Feb 7, 2011 2:34am
the only time frame that matters is daily. the rest are just for fine tuning
  • #15,782
  • Feb 7, 2011 3:23am Feb 7, 2011 3:23am
Quoting DjMace
the only time frame that matters is daily. the rest are just for fine tuning
That's correct if you are trading longer term positions.

If you are in an out faster than that then daily may not matter at all.

Depends entirely on your own method.

Nice trade SM!
  • #15,783
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:40am Feb 7, 2011 5:40am
Quoting 4xAddict
Some do lundu00.

You are best off with a true ECN broker where the broker doesn't have a dealing desk so they can't hunt your stops.

Stay away from FXCM they are terrible for stop hunting at times, especially when you are a profitable trader.

Just my opinion from experience.
Thanks very much!
  • #15,784
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:56am Feb 7, 2011 5:56am
Quoting 4xAddict
Some do lundu00.

You are best off with a true ECN broker where the broker doesn't have a dealing desk so they can't hunt your stops.

Stay away from FXCM they are terrible for stop hunting at times, especially when you are a profitable trader.

Just my opinion from experience.

FXCM definately to be avoided in my opinion also. They will hunt your stops and I also had lots of problems with unstable platform, they never take responsability for software issues.

again just my opinion, I use fxcm for micro, but I would never trade with them again using real money amounts.
  • #15,785
  • Feb 7, 2011 6:49am Feb 7, 2011 6:49am
what about alpari uk?
  • #15,786
  • Feb 7, 2011 6:53am Feb 7, 2011 6:53am
Quoting SanMiguel
EURGBP
Not strictly protocol but this was a 30min Ts/Ks cross but I timed the entry on the 15min chart. I should add that I am not usually willing to trade breakouts because of the nature of price in the markets to trade inwards of these areas but it was the 3rd hit of the 0.8422 area and trend was down indicating a likely breakout.

Took half off at +15, leaving the rest to run.
Not the greatest momentum move ever. Got stopped out on the remainder when it moved above the Ks for a massive +2pip profit.

However, the DAX was very profitable today:
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  • #15,787
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:18am Feb 7, 2011 7:18am
Quoting mero
what about alpari uk?
I know a few people using them and they seem happy enough.

There is a new player in the UK market actually called LMAX. I know about them due to a friend working there. They are actually a new exchange that gives the retail investor access rather than having to trade through a broker at all.

They use a java based trading platform at the moment but word from inside is that they are going to have MT4 in the coming weeks.

Their liquidity pool is supplied by GS, Deutsche Bank, Citibank and several other major liquidity providers and their execution speeds are lightning fast meaning you miss less entries.

The reason for this is they have a different back end software infrastructure that processes enormous volumes of trades per millisecond and is much faster to get your orders filled because your computer isn't connecting to a broker, who is connecting to the exchange liquidity providers. You are connecting direct to the exchange.

I don't use them myself just yet however once they have MT4 available I will be opening an account with them. I have tested they platform over the past few weeks trying to get trades on around news events and their order execution speeds kill FxPro and Dukascopy who I currently use and I believe to be some of the best out there.

I am always wary of brokers offering money back and giving you money to join them as this cannot translate into lower spreads.

If you trade regularly and with decent size amounts then spreads become a large % of your trading costs.

I think LMAX also offers 200X leverage which is nice in the face of most other brokers reducing what they will offer.

Worth checking out, and I get nothing for saying this. No referral fees or underhanded rubbish like other brokers do. I just believe that they are doing things much smarter from a software perspective which is probably the most important issue for retail traders to stop the lag in our trade execution times vs those of larger players.

www.lmax.com

They are backed by the Betfair group who are the world's largest online gambling exchange so they have loads of cash and will be a significant player in the longer term. Check out their platform on demo and watch how quick the trades execute.

Cheers.

4x.
  • #15,788
  • Edited 8:17am Feb 7, 2011 7:55am | Edited 8:17am
Quoting 4xAddict

I am always wary of brokers offering money back and giving you money to join them as this cannot translate into lower spreads.
Not necessarily as it is an advertising/marketing aspect.
A lot offer loss covers but some traders go ballistic on these and start using a lot of leverage. Fair enough, the get their loss back after the promotion period ends but then lose their account shortly after. If more than 50% of the traders lose with the broker then the broker wins automatically whether they have zero or low spreads if they take the other side of the trade. 50:50, then they get all the spread money.
Really, DMA is the way to go even for trading currencies but it's not for everyone.
LMAX also offer a similar thing to Pro spreads now. My only issue with prospreads is that they take a small spread even if it is DMA and this is more than a proper DMA broker would take in commissions.

So, LMAX has a bout a $1 per contract round trip commission? Not bad when you can trade inside the spread if you are quick - just saw EU on their site for about 0.00004 spread. It's not quite as cheap as trading the futures or currenex in my experience by certainly worth a look into.
  • #15,789
  • Feb 7, 2011 8:05am Feb 7, 2011 8:05am
Quoting SanMiguel
Not the greatest momentum move ever. Got stopped out on the remainder when it moved above the Ks for a massive +2pip profit.

However, the DAX was very profitable today:
Don't you find price often spikes through the Ks?
I usually take a close above the Ks as the saignal to get out - looks like I got this one wrong on the EG as it's still falling.
  • #15,790
  • Feb 7, 2011 8:45am Feb 7, 2011 8:45am
Quoting SanMiguel
Not the greatest momentum move ever. Got stopped out on the remainder when it moved above the Ks for a massive +2pip profit.

However, the DAX was very profitable today:
Very good ichimoku setup near the pivot point.
  • #15,791
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:25am Feb 7, 2011 11:25am
Quoting SanMiguel
Not necessarily as it is an advertising/marketing aspect.
A lot offer loss covers but some traders go ballistic on these and start using a lot of leverage. Fair enough, the get their loss back after the promotion period ends but then lose their account shortly after. If more than 50% of the traders lose with the broker then the broker wins automatically whether they have zero or low spreads if they take the other side of the trade. 50:50, then they get all the spread money.
Really, DMA is the way to go even for trading currencies but it's not...
Granted that cashback etc is a marketing expense however I just look at the spreads those brokers offer and they are never great. They are normally also the same brokers who seem to offer the more significant rebates via sites like cashbackforex.com implying that their pricing is padded.

The reason I suggested LMAX is that they can be used by people with smaller account sizes and still achieve very competitive pricing. Trading the bigs on the futures market or currenex for most traders on FF is financially out of reach in my opinion. I have switched from IB to Saxo Bank for futures myself recently as I don't trade them quite enough to justify the feed costs on TS/Esignal/Ninja.
  • #15,792
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:33am Feb 7, 2011 11:33am
Quoting 4xAddict
Granted that cashback etc is a marketing expense however I just look at the spreads those brokers offer and they are never great.

The reason I suggested LMAX is that they can be used by people with smaller account sizes and still achieve very competitive pricing. Trading the bigs on the futures market or currenex for most traders on FF is financially out of reach in my opinion.
That's fair enough although there are also the mini futures...a bit less liquid but nonetheless move pretty much ion line with the spot market.

LMAX give an example here: http://www.lmaxtrader.co.uk/fx-tradi...ading-examples
Bid Price $1.52150
Value per contract per tick ($0.00001) $0.10
Notional value of closing trade 5 x $10,000 x 1.52150 = $76,075
Commission (0.0025% of notional trade value, charged at both opening and closing)
Total commission = $3.78
Buy commission = $1.88 (5 x 0.0025% x $75,075 = $1.88)
Sell commission = $1.90 (5 x 0.0025% x $76,075 = $1.90)
Profit $996.22

In their example, 5 contracts is about $5 per pip.
They seem to charge around $4 commission for that so that's effective to a 0.8 pip spread on cable but then you would have to also be sure to trade inside the market's spread or use limit orders in the actual market.
Of course, it's bound to be cheaper than the 2 pip spread most brokers charge and will save you in the long run + the level 2 is nice
UK traders can find some competitive spreads with SB companies also.
  • #15,793
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:33am Feb 7, 2011 11:33am
Hi All,

I may have an opportunity for a couple of people provided they can satisfy the criteria that my company needs.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=279795

I posted this a little earlier, if any of you are interested please let me know as spots are limited.

Thanks

4x.
  • #15,794
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:03pm Feb 7, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi All,

I may have an opportunity for a couple of people provided they can satisfy the criteria that my company needs.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=279795

I posted this a little earlier, if any of you are interested please let me know as spots are limited.

Thanks

4x.
Good luck, i am no where near that yet.
  • #15,795
  • Feb 7, 2011 2:05pm Feb 7, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting GeraldFX
Good luck, i am no where near that yet.
Thx, Gerald. NOt to worry I am sure you will be out performing that very soon. Your style of analysis is very sound..

Also, check out the GBPCHF.

The daily candle is failing at the weekly KS.

Also falling trend line running across the 5th Aug/ 18th Nov 2010 highs seems to have capped price on the daily.

Also, the price action reached perfectly to the 61.8% extension of the most recent ABC bottom formation on the daily chart.

A (swing low), B (recent highs just taken out), C (most recent low).

All suggest that a close today below the 1.5398 level (weekly KS) could lead to renewed downward pressure in this pair targeting weekly pivot, WPS1 and WPS2.

I am watching the close tonight and provided it closes below the weekly KS I will enter 0.3 lots at market, resting sell for 0.4 lots @ 1.5490 and 0.8 lots @ 1.5580. stops above 1.5750 with TP targets at the weekly pivot and then pivot supports down to 1.50 handle. On a close below weekly pivot on daily I will move stops to break even.

Cheers.
  • #15,796
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:18am Feb 8, 2011 2:18am
Hi 4xAddict,

I'd like to seek your views on my demo trading on EURUSD today. I long EURUSD today based on the following rationale:
Daily - price above cloud. Chikou above price curve
H4 - Chikou pointing up.
H1 - Chikou pointing up, price trading in the cloud & Tenken above Kijun.
M15 & M5 - all 3 conditions met.

So I refered to M1 chart to enter position, which I marked with a purple vertical line. Unfortunately, the market went against my position. Could you please help review my trade? Thank you!
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  • #15,797
  • Edited 4:37am Feb 8, 2011 4:02am | Edited 4:37am
Another DAX bullish breakout!

+20 pts on 60% of the trade. I am holding the remainder for the finish of the bull flag move if it can get to around 7340. Yes, the stock markets are way overbought but can't argue with the trend here.
Edit: remainder stopped at +14. I suspect this will move higher but not a bad trade for the morning.
+17.6pts overall.
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  • #15,798
  • Feb 8, 2011 6:21am Feb 8, 2011 6:21am
Quoting lundu00
Hi 4xAddict,

I'd like to seek your views on my demo trading on EURUSD today. I long EURUSD today based on the following rationale:
Daily - price above cloud. Chikou above price curve
H4 - Chikou pointing up.
H1 - Chikou pointing up, price trading in the cloud & Tenken above Kijun.
M15 & M5 - all 3 conditions met.

So I refered to M1 chart to enter position, which I marked with a purple vertical line. Unfortunately, the market went against my position. Could you please help review my trade? Thank you!
Hi Lundu00,

Your summary of what is happening on each chart makes sense however I think you may have run into trouble because of the way you are viewing the relationship between the other time frames.

If you are using the daily TF to establish trend then you are no longer trading in the short term and the likelihood for the very smallest timeframes to have any relevance is low. This is because of the average daily trading range that the pair may trade in throughout the day could be up to 300 pips on a volatile day. What does this mean, well it means that unless you have picked the absolute top or bottom of a move (very difficult/impossible to do all the time) then there is the possibility for the trade to move anywhere from 1 to 300 pips away from your entry point. This is why a trade on the lowest time frames is more interested in what's happening right now and what will happen for the expected duration of the trade and this all requires you to maintain context.

Clearest way to articulate this is - if I were to say that I think the EURUSD will be at $1.01 against the USD in December would it make sense to sell the pair short now on a one minute chart? Well that depends entirely on your risk profile. The price may go to 1.60 before hitting 1.01 in which case you would have had to hold losses of about 2500 pips before starting to see the trade go you way. What I am getting at is it's all about sharpening your entry point to minimize your drawdown potential which can only be done with more relevant information.

If you are wanting to take a long position off a 1min or 5min chart then you really need to have the 15 and/or 30 supporting you but more importantly the hourly MUST support your trade and ideally the 4hr as well but not as important as the hourly due to the time frame you are trading in - i.e you are looking to take a position for a small period of time and get in/out with a few pips. Trading on a 1 or 5 min timeframe implies you are happy to be in the trade for anything from one minute to possibly an hour or two so the 30min and hourly charts are most important as they tell you what is most likely going to occur during that time range.

If you are looking for entries on the 15min or 30min chart then the direction of the hourly AND 4hrly charts are most important because you are willing to hold this position longer in order to achieve your profit target.

Why are you willing to hold this position longer? Because the 15min and 30min charts take that long to close one candle. It may take 3-30 candles or more to reach your profit target at time so you are happy to hold this trade for a minimum of 15mins with the potential to be in the trade for several hours.

If the daily trend supports your long trade then this is good but not imperative because you are interested in what the next 15mins to 4-6 hours holds and for this you need to be supported on those timeframes.

Alternatively if you are looking to trade on the 1hr chart 4hr and daily are the most important and if the weekly supports the trade or the weekly KS or kumo is providing you with some backup behind your trade for support or resistance then that is good but not necessary.

Ichimoku is a subjective trading method that utilises the key signals that the indicator provides in conjunction with the traders own capacity to put the price action that they see in front of them in context with relation to other timeframes for entry and exit.

With relation to your example the trade failed for any number of reasons however the fact that the 1hr chart did not support it made it a much lower probability set up.

Cheers.
  • #15,799
  • Feb 8, 2011 7:07am Feb 8, 2011 7:07am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Lundu00,

Your summary of what is happening on each chart makes sense however I think you may have run into trouble because of the way you are viewing the relationship between the other time frames.

Cheers.
Thanks very much for taking the time to explain in detail to me. It now makes sense.
  • #15,800
  • Feb 8, 2011 7:17am Feb 8, 2011 7:17am
Quoting lundu00
Thanks very much for taking the time to explain in detail to me. It now makes sense.
Just my view.

It really need to get out of the H1 kumo to show clear direction.
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