GoodBoy's Daily Breakout auto-trading EA by Steve Hopwood | Forex Factory

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GoodBoy's Daily Breakout auto-trading EA by Steve Hopwood

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 4:18pm Jan 16, 2011 4:52am | Edited 4:18pm
SERIOUS WARNING

  1. Most Forex traders lose all their money.
  2. Using the robot posted here in trading Forex does not guarantee success.
  3. Trading this robot could lead to serious financial loss.
  4. Trading this robot without understanding its underlying trading strategy guarantees traders will lose their money.


I received this in a pm from GoodBoy:
I have a simple idea, should be an easy on for you.

Goal is to achieve 5-10 pips a day with 90% accuracy. Lot of ppl running after mass of pips and end up blowing their account. I believe if we have 90% accuracy of system, we'll defeat the wall st. single handedly

So i was thinking what system can be 90% accurate.. here is one

1) prevous day's DAILY CANDLE break out. EA to enter once 7 pips have been breached from daily breakout.
2) SL = 15 pips.. TP 10 pips.. trail stop 15 pips..

can you code such an EA if its not too tough of a task for you

Truth to tell, I find the idea faintly ridiculous and told GoodBoy so, but he really wants this so I have coded it.

The inputs are the usual suspects, with these additions:

 

  1. TriggerPips: the distance the market has to breakout before triggering a trade. You may need to add the spread to this figure.
  2. TradingTF: the trading time frame. Defaults to zero, which means the current chart. By setting this to a different figer - say 1440 for the D1 - you can trade a different tf to the one you are viewing.

The ea includes the usual mptm extracts.

There are inputs to allow you to control the direction in which the bot trades. I have also added basic trend detection - my fav D1 Rsi(20). D1 Rsi > 55 = up trend; D1 Rsi < 45 = down trend; in between is ranging. If UseTrendDetection is enabled, the bot will only trade in the direction of the trend. By using a much higher tp and the management facilities, I have managed one slightly profitable back test - not enough to be worth the effort, but profitable none the less.



Frankly, I think a starving pussy cat has more chance of loftily ignoring a passing mouse than this does of being profitable. If any of the great minds here at FF can suggest improvements, then go birdy and I will code the suggestions.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 GoodBoy's Daily breakout auto trading robot by Steve Hopwood.mq4   42 KB | 6,707 downloads
File Type: mq4 #MTF_RSI.mq4   4 KB | 3,707 downloads
  • #2
  • Jan 16, 2011 6:05am Jan 16, 2011 6:05am
this works quite nicely on a monday candle for the rest of the week.

breakouts in general are profitable on GU, other good results can be found on EG. EU is there if you get the timing right.

15 TP is rather limiting and would set it to your own trade manager settings to move stop to b/e +2/3 (lockin) @ 13 instead and jumping stop the rest - tightening the stop / taking profit every so often with the part close.

buffer at 7pips is good - mine is 9 on GU.

on gu i would look at a simple strategy like merlintrade employs on london breakout 1. unfortunately on the time daily breakouts you have to let the trade breathe all the way to the other side of the breakout box - this can be seat of the pants stuff for some just to make 15 pips.

i run percentage breakouts similar to mer which sets a stop the other side of the breakout box and trails the breakout with a lockin.

mers BO is percentage based which i know you have done some work on.

i also run a fixed SL of 30 pips and trails with a lockin.

the results of a this system greatly improve using part close at different levels - 20 pips, 35 pips, 55 pips, 90 pips, 110 pips.

For simplicity look at what merlintrade is doing on london breakout 1. Breakouts will bring you steady pips but nothing more than 4/6pips a day on average over a year.

I am not sold on the martingale strat in london 2 and believe this covers a non working system - the strat for me is making this profitable.
  • #3
  • Jan 16, 2011 6:17am Jan 16, 2011 6:17am
I see there is a little bit of interest in this, so I have added trade direction and trend detection functions.

Post 1 for the update and description.

  • #4
  • Edited Jan 17, 2011 6:31am Jan 16, 2011 8:00am | Edited Jan 17, 2011 6:31am
Excellemt! Sorry meant 'Excellent' - using my lap-top with a bad keyboard. Back home now with a replacement.

I have been reading 'A-trade-a-day' that suggests going with a break of yesterday's candle. Looks like the EA will do the job. Won't continue this on the thread.
  • #5
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:54am Jan 17, 2011 6:54am
is anyone else getting multiple entries on the candle - or is this normal behaviour that it keeps entering the trade if it breakouts out after the trade is closed?
  • #6
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:07am Jan 17, 2011 8:07am
Quoting stimpy
is anyone else getting multiple entries on the candle - or is this normal behaviour that it keeps entering the trade if it breakouts out after the trade is closed?
Also I have had multiple entries as from attachment.

Frankalde
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc GoodBoy_Trades_17gen11.doc   67 KB | 2,626 downloads
  • #7
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:35am Jan 17, 2011 8:35am
Interesting, 90% win rate with a stop loss of 15 pips is impropable, you will need more like a 100 pip stop loss.

But I will fly over there and give you a kiss and a hug if you can prove me wrong!

Will test this and see if I can make any improvements!
  • #8
  • Edited 2:11pm Jan 17, 2011 12:28pm | Edited 2:11pm
Steve, your effort is highly appreciated, at least now i got to see using back testing that system is NOT 90% accurate (generally u'd think daily breakout would at least get u quick 5 pips but market back testing has shown otherwise, so we stick to reality and move forward. (still think some instrument in market can scalp this)

The concept of attaining 5-10 pips a day on a pair using EA is not a bad one. Knowing market behavior, can't one think of a system/setup where 5 pips is attainable with 90% accuracy? idea is NOT not amass pips, but rather consistent small number of pips (5-10) and use money mgmt(compound) to be our holy grail.

Mr. Steve I have another idea which i hope won't be simplistic and moronic as previous one. It is based on price action S/R(the heart of markets) An EA based on range breakout? on 15M or (or any TF EA applied to) say even if its a "false breakout" 5pips or less are guaranteed, a broker that allows TP less than 5? sure there are a few..that even let u set up SL/TP for 1 pip. This breakout system based on S/R levels can achieve much more than 5 pips on higher TF.

To define range, Support/Resistance indicator is used, I have got one which i am attaching

Rule of triggering entry in depended on S/R indicator: break of range, trigger entry 5 past the range, TP 5-10 pips . stop loss to previous support/resistance can be seen from indicator(attaching screen shot). also if u can add 10 EMA & 55 EMA as trend filter, would serve better.

Steve, the hours of trade time parameter is also great as we know times which time periods "false breaks" are likely to occur.

Once again Steve, your kindness is appreciated. thank you from the bottom of my heart, hope u EA can be the ONE we were all looking for as we all tend to use price action, S/R and lil tid bits we can think of as we progres with the great minds here.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Pipholic_SR.ex4   2 KB | 2,296 downloads
  • #9
  • Jan 17, 2011 1:32pm Jan 17, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting GoodBoy
Steve, your effort is highly appreciated, atleast now i got to see using back testing system is NOT 90% accurate (generally u'd think daily breakout would at least get u quick 5 pips but market back testing has shown otherwise, so we stick to reality and move forward. (still think some instrument in market can scalp this)

The concept of attaining 5-10 pips a day on a pair using EA is not a bad one. Knowing market behavior, can't one think of a system/setup where 5 pips is attainable with 90% accuracy? idea is NOT not amass pips, but rather consistent...
GoodBoy,

There is NO WAY you will ever get a 90% win rate without risking massive amounts of pips. You will need a ridiculous low risk to reward ratio to achieve that goal.

The amount of pips obtained is not important, it is about the amount of pips you risk to make the pips.

Risking 5 pips and making 5 pips is exactly the same as risking 1000 pips and making 1000 pips, so I don't understand why you think making 5 pips is easy. It is exactly the same as trying to make 5000 pips. Your risk to reward will be the same.

There is absolutely no free lunch in Forex, a simple strategy like the one you are proposing yet again cannot and will not ever work.

I don't want to sound rude or anything but this is reality, if it was that easy for a computer to make massive amounts of money why on earth are banks using human traders?

You need to think about this, learn to program, and start to write your own strategies. That way you will start to learn the mechanics of the market and just maybe you will have success with this. Statistically speaking you have about a 5% chance as everyone on Forex Factory does to make money. This is not me being mean this is me talking reality.
  • #10
  • Jan 17, 2011 1:56pm Jan 17, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting Saidar
GoodBoy,

There is NO WAY you will ever get a 90% win rate without risking massive amounts of pips....
I can agree to realities of market and you are not being rude, your right about the risk of pips vs. reward (if we can achieve 1:1 with eve 60% winrate) we are good, volume will make up the profit, will then work on frequency. If i am not mistaking, last i read 70% of market is being played by bank robots, humans are there and could be for any reason(control robots, or just fill office space for legitimacy that they have a trading desk)

Why do I want to use an EA? is it because, i am lazy and seek free lunch? no i am approaching EA"s because i see robots as efficient executors of orders and detectors of nity gritty details, which our human eye can sometimes miss or we can simply be too slow to click an order in.

Some of the EA based system are generating 1000's% ROI if u look at http://www.myfxbook.com/id/systems (automatic = EA) can we achieve this? i believe so, if we put our minds to it.
  • #11
  • Jan 17, 2011 3:10pm Jan 17, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting GoodBoy
Why do I want to use an EA? is it because, i am lazy and seek free lunch? no i am approaching EA"s because i see robots as efficient executors of orders and detectors of nity gritty details, which our human eye can sometimes miss or we can simply be too slow to click an order in.
Summed up neatly. This is why I devote such a lot of time to coding the things.

Unless people have been steadfastly ignoring me, they know that a robot is at best 90% as good as the strategy it trades because I keep on telling them so. If the strategy is rubbish, so is the robot.

But, a robot never sleeps. It will take trades when we are asleep; in the loo; unconscious from the party. This more than makes up for not being to trade with human understanding.

Mind, I didn't understand your post about the pipholic thingy.

  • #12
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:36pm Jan 17, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Summed up neatly. This is why I devote such a lot of time to coding the things.

Unless people have been steadfastly ignoring me, they know that a robot is at best 90% as good as the strategy it trades because I keep on telling them so. If the strategy is rubbish, so is the robot.

But, a robot never sleeps. It will take trades when we are asleep; in the loo; unconscious from the party. This more than makes up for not being to trade with human understanding.

Mind, I didn't understand your post about the pipholic thingy.

Hey Steve, thanks! glad we agree on usefulness of robots you are on point about robot being crap if strategy is crap.

About the pipholic_Sr its a Support/Resistance indicator. It draws small S/R horizontal lines of the range price action in any given TF. It is the HEART of this new EA, which i proposed... the trigger will be break of the SR line with 3 pip breach.(trend confirmed by 55 EMA) (momentum confirmed 10EMA) So if price broke resistance line, our stop will be 3 pip below support line. Let me put a visual on and label it for better view & understanding.
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20110117-itob-137kb.jpg

Again, the core of the EA is this indicator's S/R Lines. on 15M we usually get daily around 5-7 solid breakouts which are likely to capture between 3-5 pips in some instances prolly 20-30 pips (but thats if one wants to apply trailing stop) but for accuracy sake i'll tp 3-5 pips .. if daily we get 5 breaks be they real or fake brkouts, we capture 3-4 pips per shot with 80-90% accuracy hopefully(backtest will ACTUALLY tell the rate of accuracy) we can adjust parameters... so each day 20-25 pips could be possible on just single pair. If we spread it across majors.. 100+ but lets wait to back test/forward test it. (to be honest on 1HR TF, it looks as if this EA will be capture major moves of the day) So we can test it for long term strategy as well by adjusting parameters.

This is it steve, hope its not too difficult to code, take it away....

PS: i gotta another good strategy in mind involving pivot points but lets save it for other time.
  • #13
  • Jan 18, 2011 6:51am Jan 18, 2011 6:51am
Totally agree

Quoting SteveHopwood
Summed up neatly. This is why I devote such a lot of time to coding the things.

Unless people have been steadfastly ignoring me, they know that a robot is at best 90% as good as the strategy it trades because I keep on telling them so. If the strategy is rubbish, so is the robot.

But, a robot never sleeps. It will take trades when we are asleep; in the loo; unconscious from the party. This more than makes up for not being to trade with human understanding.

Mind, I didn't understand your post about the pipholic thingy.

  • #14
  • Jan 18, 2011 7:15am Jan 18, 2011 7:15am
i still got no smile face in my chart.. use default with 15m TF and 4 digit broker..
do i miss something??
help will appreciate
thnks
  • #15
  • Jan 18, 2011 7:35am Jan 18, 2011 7:35am
is there anyone that can fix the EA to stop taking multiple entries on the one candle?
  • #16
  • Jan 20, 2011 12:05am Jan 20, 2011 12:05am
Steve, Screen shot of new EA proposal is as follows.. i really believe this is going to be the EA everyone's been waiting for its based on price breakout and support/resistance levels, i hope you can code this without much trouble to you.

This EA should easily capture major breakouts, for purpose of higher accuracy rate, i propose TP no more than 5 pips. So incase even if its false break, we hit our small targets.

Optional: If you could add an optional parameter, whereby if target(TP) not achieved in 5-10 min of open of trade, exit the trade automatically. (idea is to capture momentum or remain out)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-01-20_00-44_MetaTrader.jpg Size: 159 KB
  • #17
  • Feb 6, 2011 1:08pm Feb 6, 2011 1:08pm
excellent....I have asked you the similar thing few days ago, and I am happy you did this bot....just I think there have to be day high/low breaks just above it + spread, with tight TP pisp (3-5 max) and massive lots !
that's only way to be good in this game.........

cheers
  • #18
  • Mar 1, 2011 8:47am Mar 1, 2011 8:47am
Quoting SteveHopwood
SERIOUS WARNING

  1. Most Forex traders lose all their money.
  2. Using the robot posted here in trading Forex does not guarantee success.
  3. Trading this robot could lead to serious financial loss.
  4. Trading this robot without understanding its underlying trading strategy guarantees traders will lose their money.


I...


did anyone get this to only open one sell/buy?

would the addition of a flag help i.e if (buy! && BUYCONDITION)

any takers to work with me to try it?

i also have another of steve's ea's id like to add the buy/sell flag but have not been successful.
  • #19
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:53am Mar 28, 2011 6:53am
Have anyone still try this EA ?
  • #20
  • Mar 28, 2011 10:15pm Mar 28, 2011 10:15pm
I know somebody who has been sucessfully trading this method for at least 3 years now, so it is totally a sound method. Now as far as automating it ... thats all Steve ;p
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