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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #88,201
  • Feb 6, 2011 1:29am Feb 6, 2011 1:29am
Quoting Adilius07
Hey Kwik, no not really. Mainly weak close and that RN I have for the JPY I have it in 250p intervals instead of 500

I like the CADJPY very much though...
How do you plan to go about the Cad/Jpy setup Adilius, if you don't mind me asking?

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,202
  • Feb 6, 2011 1:44am Feb 6, 2011 1:44am
Quoting aserbfx
any comments about this weekly ipb on unilever? open and close is within the previous bar.
support from the 1800 round number, ppz and the trendline.
I would have liked to see the low of that IPB touch the 1800 for a more definite proof of the level acting as support here.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,203
  • Feb 6, 2011 2:50am Feb 6, 2011 2:50am
Quoting ghous
How do you plan to go about the Cad/Jpy setup Adilius, if you don't mind me asking?

g.
Hey G, yes this is a good question. To be honest I still working on my backtest and in general thinking what is the best way for me to manage trades. I have already backtested different variations. Including fast exit at FTA (well for the objectivity purpose my FTA was setup bar +50% of its range).

Actually the best one (how my backtests show) is this:
1) Entry with SL behind setup bar
2) If next bar close even by 1 pip in profit move to BE
3) TP is at 1:1

That is how I will enter this I guess. But there is one problem thogh the BRN on the way, my rules also tell me to exit before it. So probably I will enter with SL behind bar, will move to BE on the next bar close and wait for my TP at 84.50.

You know those backtest is great concern for me. Even though all variations are profitable. The ones with negative RR are the worst.
(that is imaginary FTA at +50% with full SL being 100%).

Of course in real time market's conditions are different and FTA is better choice when looking at what's market telling us (so win rate should be higher) but for the objectivity reasons of my backtest I had my FTA just at setup bar +50% of it's range...

I can post my results if it is interesting for anyone. Just in short what I got for EUR/USD 10 years with 6 different trade management styles tested.
  • #88,204
  • Feb 6, 2011 2:53am Feb 6, 2011 2:53am
Quoting ghous
First let's sort the relationship between space and traffic.

Space is the absence of traffic, conversely traffic is the absence of space.

In a given situation you cannot have a 'bit of both'. When your trade is running into multiple bar highs and lows either stacked up at a ppz or spread out there is no space and we define that as a situation of traffic.

The GBP/AUD isn't anything even close to being really good or A+ for the reasons already mentioned. Poor bar that technically speaking is not even a pin bar and that's running straight into a...

Yeah G, I hear you.

I mean, the 1.5900 is the actual PPZ and it also has the 61.8 fibo as confluence. I imagine we could see it hit the 1.6000 as almost a done deal, with a very tight stop. Of course, if it had closed above the PPZ.
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  • #88,205
  • Feb 6, 2011 3:16am Feb 6, 2011 3:16am
Quoting ghous
How do you plan to go about the Cad/Jpy setup Adilius, if you don't mind me asking?

g.

Ghous, what setup is that on CAD/JPY?

Looked at the chart on Monthly, weekly & daily but, all I see is a sideways mess. Am I missing something?
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  • #88,206
  • Feb 6, 2011 4:07am Feb 6, 2011 4:07am
Here is the backtest I did for EURUSD 10 years. Using only BUOB's at BRN.
6 variations tested. All positive: from 2% to 9% gain from 44 trades occured in 10 years (using 1% risk).

Hope someone will benefit from this. Any questions/critics are welcome.
And valuable suggestions on how to manage trades are of course super welcome!
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Backtest EURUSD 10 years.zip   204 KB | 627 downloads
  • #88,207
  • Feb 6, 2011 5:20am Feb 6, 2011 5:20am
Quoting Adilius07
Hey G, yes this is a good question. To be honest I still working on my backtest and in general thinking what is the best way for me to manage trades. I have already backtested different variations. Including fast exit at FTA (well for the objectivity purpose my FTA was setup bar +50% of its range).

Actually the best one (how my backtests show) is this:
1) Entry with SL behind setup bar
2) If next bar close even by 1 pip in profit move to BE
3) TP is at 1:1

That is how I will enter this I guess. But there is one problem thogh the BRN on the way,...
Right. So as I see it the only time you're going to take a loss is when the next bar gets you in and then closes below your entry. In other words you're banking on a hard break each time. Not a bad idea if 1 or 2 profitable trades is all you need in a month. Because such trades extremely rare. Not every trade will even break on the next bar. Those that do may well bounce off their FTAs (which won't always be at 1:1) and retrace within your bar.

Now for instance on this very setup, do you see the 83.5 first trouble area? Your entry is literally within 10 pips of this FTA. Are you willing to take a full bar loss if price hits the FTA and bounces off it to take you out? Don't forget that we're chopping like hell here, price is less likely to move smoothly and more likely to play around with even minor flips, not to say the 83.5 is a minor flip.

Allowing your trade to hit the FTA and then taking a full bar loss from that point on is something you must never be ok with.
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I believe . . .
  • #88,208
  • Feb 6, 2011 5:23am Feb 6, 2011 5:23am
Quoting ghous
Right. So as I see it the only time you're going to take a loss is when the next bar gets you in and then closes below your entry. In other words you're banking on a hard break each time. Not a bad idea if 1 or 2 profitable trades is all you need in a month. Because such trades extremely rare. Not every trade will even break on the next bar. Those that do may well bounce off their FTAs (which won't always be at 1:1) and retrace within your bar.

Now for instance on this very setup, do you see the 83.5 first trouble area? Your entry is literally...
How about moving the stop to BE at the FTA and taking half off the table leaving the rest to hopefully catch a runner?

Just a thought...

(note: for an FTA as close the one on Cad/Yen the trade would automatically become invalid. The trade must have 'space')

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,209
  • Feb 6, 2011 5:23am Feb 6, 2011 5:23am
Quoting Pinbar
Ghous, what setup is that on CAD/JPY?

Looked at the chart on Monthly, weekly & daily but, all I see is a sideways mess. Am I missing something?
He was talking about the Cad/Yen daily BUOB Steve.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,210
  • Feb 6, 2011 5:30am Feb 6, 2011 5:30am
Quoting ghous
Right. So as I see it the only time you're going to take a loss is when the next bar gets you in and then closes below your entry. In other words you're banking on a hard break each time. Not a bad idea if 1 or 2 profitable trades is all you need in a month. Because such trades extremely rare. Not every trade will even break on the next bar. Those that do may well bounce off their FTAs (which won't always be at 1:1) and retrace within your bar.

Now for instance on this very setup, do you see the 83.5 first trouble area? Your entry is literally...
Thanks Ghous. Yes I see that FTA, actually it was 84.00 for me I just rounded it. Either way it is really close yes. I was also thinking to take 1/2 off at it. So for this example I would enter two lots, take 1/2 off at 84.00 and move the remaining half to BE or Net BE.

Still thinking if this would be more advantageous or not. Many times like you said it will take me in and reverse to full bar loss.

The best way of course I think is just like James16 say in "this is critical" to move my SL to BE when Price reach FTA - however I do not know how to execute this on practice, it would require baby sitting the trade so not to miss the FTA. On daily bars it is really hard to do for obvious reasons.

So yes I go for those hard breaks. And as you say they rare yes. Like for EURUSD backtest that I did I had 13 winners only with 25 BE's and 6 Losses from 44 trades. There was 10 BE's streak also...

And at last, I just cannot make myself to take full profit at FTA that is this close, which will be what about 0.2% of Risk? So 1 full bar loss will wipe out 5 winners? Maybe the best is to avoid trades with FTA being that close, but on the other had the more I look at any chart the closer to entry I find FTA's....
  • #88,211
  • Feb 6, 2011 5:40am Feb 6, 2011 5:40am
Quoting ghous
He was talking about the Cad/Yen daily BUOB Steve.

g.

You mean this doji looking thing 12 pips below the PPZ?

That is why, I didn't notice it, it looks too doji like on this IBFX feed.

I can't see the candles on Adis chart as the black charts don't show up well.
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  • #88,212
  • Feb 6, 2011 6:58am Feb 6, 2011 6:58am
Quoting ghous
How about moving the stop to BE at the FTA and taking half off the table leaving the rest to hopefully catch a runner?

Just a thought...

(note: for an FTA as close the one on Cad/Yen the trade would automatically become invalid. The trade must have 'space')

g.
Can you really have a general rule about where to exit a trade?

I mean, since we're trying to find definitive signals to get us into trades, should we not be doing the same for exits?
Should we hold until price consolidates and breaks out against us?
Should we hold until we get PA opposing our direction? If so, should we really only look in our entry TF, or should we reduce the TF?
Is momentum the greatest factor when we reach the TA's? What else is there?
  • #88,213
  • Feb 6, 2011 7:34am Feb 6, 2011 7:34am
Quoting Adilius07
Here is the backtest I did for EURUSD 10 years. Using only BUOB's at BRN.
6 variations tested. All positive: from 2% to 9% gain from 44 trades occured in 10 years (using 1% risk).

Hope someone will benefit from this. Any questions/critics are welcome.
And valuable suggestions on how to manage trades are of course super welcome!

I wish I had more time to dig into all the fine work your doing and just wanted to say I appreciate it.

Would there be a way to backtest the data with the concept of "space" added as a variable or is that to subjective? Possibly, this would gleen better results. Just an idea or although it may not be valid.
  • #88,214
  • Feb 6, 2011 7:38am Feb 6, 2011 7:38am
Quoting Atc
I wish I had more time to dig into all the fine work your doing and just wanted to say I appreciate it.

Would there be a way to backtest the data with the concept of "space" added as a variable or is that to subjective? Possibly, this would gleen better results. Just an idea or although it may not be valid.
Yes I would like to do it with space, and also other locations (not only BRN) but I'm afraid that could make it worthless because to much of my discretion would be used (with which you may not agree at all)

And I don't want to do every BUOB neither, as in real life we don't trade every BUOB that occur... so at BRN makes it a little close to discretion we use
  • #88,215
  • Feb 6, 2011 7:43am Feb 6, 2011 7:43am
Quoting Ifmyante
Can you really have a general rule about where to exit a trade?

What else is there?
Ifmyante, I like to use pivot points and big round numbers as profit targets. PP are more popular in commodities and indices but I've noticed price still gravitates and respects these levels particularly the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly pivots for the longer time frames.

You can also use Fib price targets. I'm sure someone can explain this technique better than me but you draw the Fib differently and take profit at 100%, 161.8% etc. There are some you tube videos on this if you want to learn more. This is basically another way of seeing what levels other traders may be anticipating.
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #88,216
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:05am Feb 6, 2011 8:05am
Quoting Scot Pippin'
Ifmyante, I like to use pivot points and big round numbers as profit targets. PP are more popular in commodities and indices but I've noticed price still gravitates and respects these levels particularly the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly pivots for the longer time frames.

You can also use Fib price targets. I'm sure someone can explain this technique better than me but you draw the Fib differently and take profit at 100%, 161.8% etc. There are some you tube videos on this if you want to learn more. This is basically another way of seeing what...
Yep, lots of ways to handle a trade.

I'm with you on the fibs. I must have the busiest default fib in trading history! But the trading world believes so much in them they have long become a self fulfilling prophecy.

For anyone who hasn't studied them, I'd suggest Mouteki and Bobokus
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  • #88,217
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:27am Feb 6, 2011 8:27am
All

This seems to be a nice set-up. EURCAD BEOB on the Weekly TF. Off the BRN 1.35 and also seems a Swing High.

0908
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  • #88,218
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:42am Feb 6, 2011 8:42am
Here is one I will be watching this week. Weekly BEOB at a swing high looking for downward trend to continue. I expect price to retest the daily pivot and look for some PA to sell the pair on a lower time frame. DUh, haha I didn't notice you posted about the same pair. I guess we're of the same mindset lol.
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"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #88,219
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:53am Feb 6, 2011 9:53am
This area looks interesting for some PA signals.
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  • #88,220
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:54am Feb 6, 2011 9:54am
Quoting stewrigh
Hi all any thoughts on this interesting formation
I'm waiting for a bo of the blue box


Attachment


I wanted to comment on the Gbp/Aud PB using Stewrigh's most recent post but it looks as though he deleted it.

Anyway . .I agree with Ghous and Mike that if the PB closed above the 1.5900 . .it had a good chance that the consolidation that Price was in would continue upwards.

What Stewrigh chart showed that when Price broke and closed below the 1.5900 the strong Support level (in white and purple) turned from Support to Resistance.

Will this Resistance level (1.5900) continue to act as Resistance? It may continue to do so but its running into another strong Support level. Its a longer term Support level (1.5830ish), another bottom of a consolidation area.

Price maybe heading down to break that level and begin to form another consolidation area. We'll have to wait and see if Price can break through and close below the 1.5830ish level.
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