james16 Chart Thread
- #88,182
- Feb 5, 2011 6:03pm Feb 5, 2011 6:03pm
Hey Pat
here is my view....
Am I correct with my analysis?????
Cheers,
Harry
- #88,184
- Edited 8:03pm Feb 5, 2011 7:45pm | Edited 8:03pm
Harry,
I think we need to look at the space where the entry would be, not below the bar. At least, that is my understanding of it.
AM I over analyzing this??? I've watched the traffic & space video 3 times now. Is there really a lot of traffic in space??? lol I will watch it again now. Which one is the better analysis this chart or the previous??? I'm confused
Ghous pleeaseee help us here, we need your wisdom
I think I've solved it, Pin Bar you are right we do not look above but to the left of the bar to see whether there is space. So accordingly, there is not much space for Price to move higher and we are heading straight into traffic. ok I am getting the hang of this.
- #88,185
- Feb 5, 2011 8:17pm Feb 5, 2011 8:17pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
for my 1000th post
this is my special setup
just kidding.
thanks to forexfactory and the james16-gang. you know who you are!
i am looking forward to the next 1000 posts!
u rock aserbfx, keep it coming Sir!
- #88,186
- Feb 5, 2011 8:30pm Feb 5, 2011 8:30pm
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: MAKE IT HAPPEN | 2,220 Posts
Hi Adi....
So for this reason I usually take only Outside Bars and Only at BRN - because you can stay objective with them, you really know that at least 2 factors are truely objective 1) Setup which we trade 2) Location which we trade.
In regards to FTA it is also hard, what maybe FTA to you may not be FTA to me, so again a lot of subjectivity... and to make it somehow more objective I would also try to find a rule like for example 1) FTA is +50% of setup bars range, or 32% fibo extension etc...
Again, this is just to make the backtest as objective as possible. So you can say that backtest was accomplished taking only outside bars at BRN with target at +50% of the setup bar. - This is objective.
Saying backtest was accomplished taking Outside bars, DBHLC, PB at good location, with exit at FTA - this is subjective and really is a curve fitting. You can arrive to 100% win rate with such a backtest very easily.
No offence, but it is a curve fitting. Like your example with PB. It is not even a Pinbar, technically it is, but we were told so many times by Seniors that bars like this are weak, tail must stick out!!!! So why do you take it then if it is so weak? ---- becuase you see the outcome, which happend to be very positive - and this is curve fitting.
So we need to stay as much objective as possible with our backtests imho.
Hope this helps. These two bars I of course will not consider in my results for the reason described above
- #88,187
- Edited 8:43pm Feb 5, 2011 8:32pm | Edited 8:43pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: HCR-LCS SFP | 6,026 Posts
PinBar, are you saying that there is not much space. If we draw a TL it looks a little different. So according to this diagram below there is no space and a lot of traffic. According to my previous post there seemed to be some space .
Attachment
AM I over analyzing this??? I've watched the traffic & space video 3 times now. Is there really a lot of traffic in space??? lol I will watch it again now. Which one is the better analysis this chart or the previous??? I'm confused
Ghous...
Yeah, I think you have got it Harry...Good job.
Here is a chart of a good example of how a consolidation box, in which the clustered highs and lows of the bars are actually the traffic, made or broke the trade.
Note how the BUEOB was successful because the close of that bar was above the traffic. But, the BEOB failed because it was trading right into the very same traffic. I think it will click when you look at this chart.
You can see how traffic can be not only a foe but also, a friend.
I hear Jarroo's former words in my head, "One day Pinbar, you learn to love these consolidation areas"!
Hope this helps.
- #88,188
- Edited 9:10pm Feb 5, 2011 8:48pm | Edited 9:10pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: HCR-LCS SFP | 6,026 Posts
- #88,191
- Feb 5, 2011 9:13pm Feb 5, 2011 9:13pm
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: MAKE IT HAPPEN | 2,220 Posts
You are welcome Adi.
The main pointed I wanted to make by doing this was that even if you took every PB and OB blindly you can still make a profit.
When I get a chance I will be doing a similar exercise but on OB only as PB are very much down to the traders discretion.
- #88,193
- Feb 5, 2011 9:36pm Feb 5, 2011 9:36pm
Hey Sr2, yes OB only backtest - I love them, most objective least discretion!
Usd/Jpy Weekly PB, D2 and D1 BUOB
On chart Is usd/jpy D2 FXCM feed
Anything can happen - You never know
- #88,194
- Feb 5, 2011 9:42pm Feb 5, 2011 9:42pm
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: MAKE IT HAPPEN | 2,220 Posts
Hey Adil , would you like this one?
Usd/Jpy Weekly PB, D2 and D1 BUOB
On chart Is usd/jpy D2 FXCM feed
Attachment
I like the CADJPY very much though...
- #88,197
- Feb 5, 2011 11:03pm Feb 5, 2011 11:03pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: kiki soso largyalo | 2,243 Posts
meine augen sind die sterne
- #88,199
- Feb 5, 2011 11:18pm Feb 5, 2011 11:18pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: kiki soso largyalo | 2,243 Posts
meine augen sind die sterne
- #88,200
- Feb 5, 2011 11:23pm Feb 5, 2011 11:23pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
PinBar, are you saying that there is not much space. If we draw a TL it looks a little different. So according to this diagram below there is no space and a lot of traffic. According to my previous post there seemed to be some space but traffic.
Attachment
AM I over analyzing this??? I've watched the traffic & space video 3 times now. Is there really a lot of traffic in space??? lol I will watch it again now. Which one is the better analysis this chart or the previous??? I'm confused
Ghous pleeaseee help us here,...
Space is the absence of traffic, conversely traffic is the absence of space.
In a given situation you cannot have a 'bit of both'. When your trade is running into multiple bar highs and lows either stacked up at a ppz or spread out there is no space and we define that as a situation of traffic.
The GBP/AUD isn't anything even close to being really good or A+ for the reasons already mentioned. Poor bar that technically speaking is not even a pin bar and that's running straight into a lot of traffic. Notice the PPZ I drew near the 1.59 on my chart. Its the biggest concern with the setup, as Mike suggested the fact that we couldn't close above takes away everything or most of it from the setup.
Remember that query Steve where you asked if we could take a trade into a consolidation box, and i mentioned that mostly consolidation boxes don't just have the upper and lower box range as hurdles but there can be many minor flips throughout the box, the only exception is when you have a really tight box with bar highs and lows literally matching. Well this would be a wonderful example of that scenario.
The point I am trying to make is that traffic on this setup is those bar lows and the 1.59 and not the entire box (a situation that isn't very common). Had we seen a close above the 1.59 of the pin bar this setup's a dolly. Can you decipher why?
.
.
.
.
Well that 1.59 then has a great chance of holding as support and provide for an opportunity of a very tight yet safe stop for at least a push to the 1.6.
All of this is really simple Harry and I am glad you're making sure you don't get entangled with such questions and preferring to have them sorted out.
g.
I believe . . .