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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #88,101
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:27pm Feb 4, 2011 3:27pm
Quoting Adilius07

So maybe I shall just to exit at FTA then... fast and secure...

What a huge work done by SR2... thanks!!!

P.S. Maybe some demo results anyone can share too?
I wouldn't advise anyone to exit at FTA if price moved say 60 pips to it in 5 minutes.

Each trade will be different, so play it as you see it.

If you could learn from someone's demo results, well done. I could be inspired or duly warned, but no more.

V-hands is good for backtesting, except that you can only test in 1 TF. If you do use it, I'd advise you to put all PPZs on the template on the weekly chart from the left of where you intend to start.

Best thing though would be just to scroll east on your charts and see what you see
  • #88,102
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:32pm Feb 4, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting spookie94
Do you have any recommendations for those of use who have smaller accounts?
I know you didn't ask me, but here's my 0.02

A small account should be treated the same as a large account.
Large accounts are made larger by compounding, same as small accounts.

A snow plough will clear a road faster than a shovel, but a shovel can get the same result
  • #88,103
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:46pm Feb 4, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting xmzhang
Also my gold trade which I posted on another thread, took off today after consolidating for some time. A nice 2_D PB at the bottom of a consolidation. This trade was a preemptive touch trade @ the left eye of that 2_D PB .............
Gold has hit my sell limit this afternoon @ 1355, them previous 2D bar lows. My entry was optimal, right @ the left eye of the 2_D PB, so I've banked some descent pips although the FTA was near the high of the 2_D PB.
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Pipcrawler
  • #88,104
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:56pm Feb 4, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting xmzhang
My E-J trade finally took off and broke that 2_D BEOB, thanx to Trichet, entry as usual on a pullback to a double top .........
Also closed my E-J trade, price has hit my buy limit this afternoon @ 11100, also in this trade my entry was optimal, right off that double top. Optimal in the sense that my initial risk is very small measured in pips, this allows a trader with a smaller account to trade with a reasonable lotsize. My initial risk in this trade was just 26 pips, for a trade on the 2D-TF that is small.
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Pipcrawler
  • #88,105
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:56pm Feb 4, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting xmzhang
Gold has hit my sell limit this afternoon @ 1355, them previous 2D bar lows. My entry was optimal, right @ the left eye of the 2_D PB, so I've banked some descent pips although the FTA was near the high of the 2_D PB.
That's an amazing fade xm.

I don't know if I'll ever have the beans to do that
  • #88,106
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:09pm Feb 4, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting Ifmyante
I'm getting tired of my stoic stupidity re these trades. I say to myself: 'I know it's going to move 60 pips, but.......'

Why can't I just omit that last word?

When you KNOW it's going to move 60 pips that way, go with it.

I'm fed up of knowing what's going to happen and doing nothing about it.
This is my next daemon to exorcise.

Thanks for driving the point home Ghous
Don't stress it. I didn't get involved in the cable trade today even though there was a good chance it would move. But it didn't (or maybe I didn't) feel right, so I left it. Better to stay out if you have doubts otherwise how will you manage the trade. I was involved in a cable trade earlier in the week which was hardly mentioned on the thread but it felt right to me...and sure enough I bagged over 200 pips.

I still regard myself a newbie as I am constantly learning so maybe I'm a student, still learning, rather than a teacher. But what I do know is that with each trade, each analysis, each chart and each thought you will get better.

Keep at it.
SR2
  • #88,107
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:32pm Feb 4, 2011 4:32pm
Quoting sr2
Don't stress it. I didn't get involved in the cable trade today even though there was a good chance it would move. But it didn't (or maybe I didn't) feel right, so I left it. Better to stay out if you have doubts otherwise how will you manage the trade. I was involved in a cable trade earlier in the week which was hardly mentioned on the thread but it felt right to me...and sure enough I bagged over 200 pips.

I still regard myself a newbie as I am constantly learning so maybe I'm a student, still learning, rather than a teacher. But what I do...
Cheers SR2, great advice about feeling good about a trade.

I am stressing about my problem, but in a good way. I'm itching to get the chance to overcome it, and looking forward to having it behind me

If you take the time to help someone with good advice, you are a teacher by nature, so, thank you

Michael
  • #88,108
  • Feb 4, 2011 7:12pm Feb 4, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting Adilius07
Yeah me too, still thinking about what Ghous said. Of course I heard that many times before but could not make that concept "mine"...

Sounds very good and psychologically I would love to have such a style. If it will work and make profit who cares what is the RR, and I can handle to have occasional paybacks back to the market....

But something within me keeps on telling me that I must hold, I must have positive R:R. So what is it a bad habbit?

How can I make myself believe that 90% is really achivable ( I mean Price to hit FTA...
Hi Adi. Thought I might share something I'm working on relative to backtesting. I am currently using forex tester to test daily Outside bars, DBH/LC, and Pinbars....focusing on big round numbers, bar shape, and closes. I like to have other confluence but BRN (which are mostly always a PPZ) and a nice bar is enough for this test. I always enter on break with this test and place stop below the bar (10 pips for each).

I test 3 exits: first at FTA (always very close and usually only a bar high or bar low), 2nd is a second trouble area (I give a little more leeway), and third is trailing at my discretion. Discretion exit is usually using Round numbers as S/R, or my sloppy version of one of Mike's trailingI am working to get to a sample size of 50 trades - currently have about 20 or so.

I will post some interesting stats for you later, but thought you might want to take 2 of these trades along with me as I backtest. If you like tell me about where you would put your FTA and second TA. I'll then post my orders, and bar by bar (close anyway) screen shots as the three trades play out.

If not interested...no biggie. Anyway here are first screen shots:



First screen shot is DBHLC, with not the greatest space, but at swing high, below the BRN, and a great close.

Second screen shot is PB at Swing low, not a lot of space, but great close.
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  • #88,109
  • Feb 4, 2011 7:20pm Feb 4, 2011 7:20pm
Quoting ghous
Out of both trades now.

g.

Ghous & Mike

These two trades really confuse me from the traffic point of view.
I mean, isn't there just too much traffic below both those entries at the bar lows to make this a viable consideration?
Especially the EUR/CAD that is trading right into both the traffic and the 365 EMA?
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  • #88,110
  • Feb 4, 2011 7:46pm Feb 4, 2011 7:46pm
Quoting ghous
Good stuff.

You'll be amazed how these literally 0 risk trades pile up for you at the end of the month/year

To some its just 60 pips on part of your trade volume. We here don't belong to that loser league do we? We belong to the group of fortunate few who will treat this like a true business and admire the 60 pips acquired with absolutely no risk, in a business where people blow their ar$es apart trying to figure out how to make that $2000 account grow with 20% a month so they get their new Audi ASAP.

g.
Namaste G

Although an Audi would be nice, I'm trading conservatively to keep my emotions in check and strategies in line. It'll come, some day.

60 pips is good enough for me because my strategy worked as I planned. Yes, 30% got stopped after retracement from the FTA for a smaller profit but:

a) I predetermined that risk,
b) set my strategy and
c) still came out a winner (all be it 60pips and a little extra).

My small account is proof that I can trade larger sums. If I can't manage this size what's the hope with a larger account? James16's archive of large vs small accounts & 3-4 trades a month is the driving inspiration here.

"We here don't belong to that loser league do we? We belong to the group of fortunate few who will treat this like a true business and admire the 60 pips acquired with absolutely no risk" Amen to that

Thanks Ghous, happy weekend.
  • #88,111
  • Feb 4, 2011 7:51pm Feb 4, 2011 7:51pm
Traffic question

Ghous, what confuses me is the traffic on the EG PB that I took the other day compared to the traffic on the EUR/AUD.

Looks to be a similar situation.
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  • #88,112
  • Feb 4, 2011 7:56pm Feb 4, 2011 7:56pm
Quoting spookie94
Do you have any recommendations for those of use who have smaller accounts?
Most of us don't have a million dollars to trade and I am in that league too.

The idea here is to still 'feel' like you are trading a large account and make your way to it slowly but surely.

There's nothing more horrible than being in a hurry to get your account to the 5 figure mark or bigger. Almost every problem that you can think of branches out in some way from this particular mindset. Over trading, fear, taking iffy setups, you name it!

The idea is to still find small but sure moves in the market to be extremely valuable regardless of their dollar value at the moment,

The idea is to live in the present but look far beyond into the future, into the long term and work for it.

Tell me something Spookie, how about just sitting on the dailies and weeklies, taking those few slam dunks a month for no more than 5% a month, and on a small account?

the idea here is to not look at things like "$ 10000 X 0.05 = $500 - Yikes! I gotta do better than that!!"

The idea is to realize not the importance of 500 bucks but the importance of getting your hands at 5% every month consistently with little to no risk involved.

Tell you what, let's do some math...

Do you have an idea what 5% a month can do to a $10,000 account in a period of 3 years AND WITH A 2% MONTHLY INCOME BASED OFF THE MONTH END BALANCE??

AFTER 3 YEARS YOU WILL ALMOST TRIPLE YOUR STARTUP CAPITAL, AND TRIPLE YOUR FIRST MONTHLY INCOME!

The idea is to patiently sit back through the years and let compounding play its magic on your account.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,113
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:32pm Feb 4, 2011 8:32pm
Quoting Pinbar
Traffic question

Ghous, what confuses me is the traffic on the EG PB that I took the other day compared to the traffic on the EUR/AUD.

Looks to be a similar situation.
It comes down to location Steve, and momentum.

I was well aware of both those FTAs but it was the location and the bars that made me go for the trades and see if they could blow through those areas. Its that confidence in a trade that gets you going when you see it at a great location, and the bars break nice and hard.

I had taken partial profit on both my trades at these areas and I was more than ready to see a reversal occur off them, just that I felt price had a good chance of getting through them.

Its great to see you bring up the Eur/Gbp up, a setup which I passed on.

EUR/CAD:

I4B straddled at a BRN, confluence with the 1.37 BRN PPZ and the 61.8 fib.

Nice hard break, and an immediate flurry past the FTA. A quick pull back to this area and then off we go.

EUR/AUD:

BIG BEOB, a glorious FTB 150 base trade setup. Notice how it momentarily stops at the FTA and we didn't exactly see a bounce on the next daily bar (which would have confirmed that the FTA was holding as support) instead we saw an IB. I was still pretty much BE at the end of 2 days but this IB just made me smile. Tells you a lot about bullish weakness. And then of course off we went.

EUR/GBP:

Just an average looking pin bar stuck in the middle of some heavy sideways action (consolidation box). I see the 8500 there Steve but think of it this way, price just has to be 'off' something to form a pin bar no? As good traders we need to carefully funnel the good ones out that are off logical locations and very clearly defined PPZs. If you don't get what I mean compare the 8500 here with Eur/Cad's 1.37.

Notice how price has been reacting to the 8500 compared to 1.37 on eurcad. You see it is 'reacting' but is that fact really enough? Do you see the difference in the reactions to both these PPZs? The 8500 on EUR/GBP is right in the middle of your chop Suey and that means that is it oscillating very close to the 8500, and what you experienced in taking that pin bar was merely just a part of this drama. Price just refuses to move smoothly.

*****-----*****

We never know what's going to be become of our trades but our all too common departments of bar size,shape and location can give us a heads up. We still don't nail down every trade, but enough to keep the belief going.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #88,114
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:35pm Feb 4, 2011 8:35pm
Quoting Pinbar
Traffic question

Ghous, what confuses me is the traffic on the EG PB that I took the other day compared to the traffic on the EUR/AUD.

Looks to be a similar situation.
Ghous, I'm in the same boat as PinBar. Really confused with this traffic business. The Pinbar on the EUR/USD weekly is going straight into traffic (or areas of congestion) as discussed.

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Wouldn't this previous PB 13 bars back be heading straight into traffic aswell because of this previous area (as highlighted by the box). For some reason every PB I see is heading into traffic. If it is a reversal it is bound to be heading into traffic, unless we are playing a continuation and heading into new territory.

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Thanks for your help,
Harry
  • #88,115
  • Edited 9:10pm Feb 4, 2011 8:47pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting ghous
It comes down to location Steve, and momentum.


*****-----*****

We never know what's going to be become of our trades but our all too common departments of bar size,shape and location can give us a heads up. We still don't nail down every trade, but enough to keep the belief going.

g.

Many thanks Ghous for taking the time out to explain those setups and very well explained I may add.

Yes, with all this over analysis I may be forgetting the pinnacle of PA which is a bar that jumps out at us at a good location.
As you mentioned, that PB really was not anything special at all size wise.

I think, I need to work more on bar size and location and sort of fit the other stuff in with it after bar size and location has been registered.

Many thanks Ghous. You are a kind soul.
  • #88,116
  • Feb 4, 2011 9:14pm Feb 4, 2011 9:14pm
[quote=Pinbar;4373720]Many thanks Ghous for taking the time out to explain those setups and very well explained

Yes Ghous, thanks for your time. I'm learning more every week!

Poncho.
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #88,117
  • Feb 4, 2011 10:35pm Feb 4, 2011 10:35pm
Quoting Pinbar
Traffic question
Ghous, what confuses me is the traffic on the EG PB that I took the other day compared to the traffic on the EUR/AUD.
Looks to be a similar situation.
just to add, if i may...
aside from location, momentum, the other factor was trend/currency strength at that time (EUR weakness: if eur was strong, it would've blown through the swing high at that time)

also
1. the euraud 2-day PB/BEOB trade was to the downside, while eurgbp pin u took was to the upside.
2. compare the space to the left of both trades. if u will look closely, euraud was spacy, eurgbp was trafficky.
3. related to #2, compare the bar situation on both charts, around Dec.28 - Jan.3. eurgbp seems to have a double top (trafficky), while euraud had a lower high(Dec.28ish) & higher high (Jan.25) type look to it.
  • #88,118
  • Edited 11:01pm Feb 4, 2011 10:50pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting vasmiza
Ghous, I'm in the same boat..
Wouldn't this previous PB 13 bars back be heading straight into traffic aswell because of this previous area (as highlighted by the box). For some reason every PB I see is heading into traffic. If it is a reversal it is bound to be heading into traffic, unless we are playing a continuation and heading into new territory.
...
Hello Harry,
since ghous seems to be out now...if i may..

i think u highlighted good consolidation areas.

but the key question is: is the consolidation area/range box near current price, or far away from current price?
location is key.
a range box near current price has more potential to affect price movement going forward, than a range box far away from current price.

below, i placed a blue box, denoting the space available beside current price. it also shows the distance of current price from the range box u highlighted(on the left).
if u see a good amount of space to the left of current price, there is potential for price to move smoothly/trend/move with momentum.
space = potential minimal to zero traffic

market is more often in a range than trend state, so it's not surprising u find most setups in a trafficky condition.

focusing now on that pinbar.. we will never be certain how price willl behave. that is why we formulate plans, approaches to trade setups. we prepare ourselves (among several things) by plotting potential traffic areas (S/Rs, PPZs).
in this case, the PB showed good rejection of 1.42, 1.43, broke down with momentum, blew through the potential stall/traffic area (see your 1.3800 line), retested 1.38 on the succeeding 2 candles, then dropped some more.

hope this makes sense & helps, Sir

EDIT: i added PPZs (black rectangles)
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  • #88,119
  • Feb 4, 2011 11:13pm Feb 4, 2011 11:13pm
Quoting Adilius07
How can I make myself believe that 90% is really achivable ( I mean Price to hit FTA with 90% accuracy as was mentioned also several times by different people here..) You know that FTA sometimes is 3-4 times closer than the SL... (this is the scariest part psychologically to accept)
If price hit my target 90% of the time, I'd have more dollars than Scrooge McDuck and Warren Buffett combined.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #88,120
  • Feb 4, 2011 11:18pm Feb 4, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting supremeChaos
Hello Harry,
since ghous seems to be out now...if i may..

i think u highlighted good consolidation areas.

but the key question is: is the consolidation area/range box near current price, or far away from current price?
location is key.
a range box near current price has more potential to affect price movement going forward, than a range box far away from current price.

(on...
SC you are a living legend. For the first time I feel like I am starting to understand space and traffic. The space as you highlighted never occurred to me. My inexperience shows, I really need to clock up screen time and get a a good feel for the charts. I love you guys.
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