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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #88,081
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:52pm Feb 4, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting Chelski
Ghous,

Monthly also has us trading back into the bar high for Dec . I will be looking for Bullish PA here as 365 MA is lurking under 1.35 too on Daily
Yeah. the 1.35's holding quite some stuff at it.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,082
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:57pm Feb 4, 2011 12:57pm
Even better would be a short at 1.59 no? Away from the box?

Thats at least how id like it.

Quoting mbqb11
as you said late in the day, but if it was a better time I would have to see it closed above 1.59 personally(notice the box and all the support there)
  • #88,083
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:07pm Feb 4, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting spookie94
Took this trade too. Unfortunately, I had to be away from my pc so I moved my SL to BE when it was 20+ so I wouldn't get stuck with a loss if the NFP turned it the other way. Got stopped out at BE.

I fought with whether or not to take this one. By placing my SL above the BEOB I basically reduced my potential gain at the FTA a meer $2. I agree with Mike that by doing this I can reduce my risk as the trade unfolds. But then I start to look at it as "is this trade worth $2". I've been saying that to myself alot lately. I'm struggling to figure...
Hey Spookie,

Unless you are willing to really hold on to each and every of your trade you will mostly come across with a poor R:R. As it has been said so many times around the thread, R:R does not matter to us as much as probability does.

The importance of a large account has also been stressed upon.

You'll need two things to make moves such as the one on GBP/USD really count.

1) The ability to look at the power of probability over and above R:R

2) A large account to make 'only' 60 pips still count.

As surprising as it may sound you may actually never hold your trades beyond FTAs once you achieve both the above factors.

Even without a large account though, the correct mindset is to just sit back and admire the high odds of success that you get with such setups. Remember we're not talking about investing in T-bills here. We're talking about a business that people spit their coffee at when they hear you're in it because they know what the majority ends up doing with their money in the markets.

The safety of a "T-bill" and the profitability of a "high risk investment" combine here for you at this thread. It's what makes it so special.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,084
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:08pm Feb 4, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting Kalbar
Hey Ghous

just watched your video on boxing and enjoyed it - some good pointersinfo there nicely explained. Some more vids from yourself would be most appreciated I am sure.

Kal
Thanks Kal and everyone,

Glad the videos are assisting you guys in some way.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,085
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:10pm Feb 4, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting Ifmyante
I'm getting tired of my stoic stupidity re these trades. I say to myself: 'I know it's going to move 60 pips, but.......'

Why can't I just omit that last word?

When you KNOW it's going to move 60 pips that way, go with it.

I'm fed up of knowing what's going to happen and doing nothing about it.
This is my next daemon to exorcise.

Thanks for driving the point home Ghous
Totally agree with Kal on this one,

It takes time to get that level of confidence going. And it really is the taking and missing of setups like these which gets the blood really flowing. So just hang in there bro.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,086
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:19pm Feb 4, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting john225
Nice move on CPWR i don´t know anymore who posted it here (i think aserbfx) thanks to pointing it out.

BTW: Ignore the Envelope and the two EMAs they have nothing to do with the entry ;-)
. . .

g.
I believe . . .
  • #88,087
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:20pm Feb 4, 2011 1:20pm
Quoting dmc
Even better would be a short at 1.59 no? Away from the box?

Thats at least how id like it.
I am ok with trading back in a box if you close above within that box. That gives you a perfect point to manage your stops and a logical place to turn back into support again. So for example if that was the 1.6 not the 1.59 and this was prime time during the week, I would for sure buy back into the box and use the now low of the box + BRN to help me manage the trade

Best
Mike
  • #88,088
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:26pm Feb 4, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting john225
Nice move on CPWR i don´t know anymore who posted it here (i think aserbfx) thanks to pointing it out.

BTW: Ignore the Envelope and the two EMAs they have nothing to do with the entry ;-)
yes, it was a fantastic setup.
here is the original post from 22.01.11:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=86729
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #88,089
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:31pm Feb 4, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting ghous
You'll need two things to make moves such as the one on GBP/USD really count.

1) The ability to look at the power of probability over and above R:R

2) A large account to make 'only' 60 pips still count.

As surprising as it may sound you may actually never hold your trades beyond FTAs once you achieve both the above factors.
This is my big lesson for the week, ie my biggest hurdle at the moment
The list of criteria for making it in this business is rather short, but each item is critical, and gets repeated here over and over.

Once again, massive humble thanks to all the seniors here for the excellent advice this week, and to all the posters for helping me go through their thought processes with them.

Have a great weekend eveybody

Michael
  • #88,090
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:33pm Feb 4, 2011 1:33pm
By the way, what does PBT & CB mean?






  • #88,091
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:41pm Feb 4, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting Ifmyante
This is my big lesson for the week, ie my biggest hurdle at the moment
The list of criteria for making it in this business is rather short, but each item is critical, and gets repeated here over and over.

Once again, massive humble thanks to all the seniors here for the excellent advice this week, and to all the posters for helping me go through their thought processes with them.

Have a great weekend eveybody

Michael
Yeah me too, still thinking about what Ghous said. Of course I heard that many times before but could not make that concept "mine"...

Sounds very good and psychologically I would love to have such a style. If it will work and make profit who cares what is the RR, and I can handle to have occasional paybacks back to the market....

But something within me keeps on telling me that I must hold, I must have positive R:R. So what is it a bad habbit?

How can I make myself believe that 90% is really achivable ( I mean Price to hit FTA with 90% accuracy as was mentioned also several times by different people here..) You know that FTA sometimes is 3-4 times closer than the SL... (this is the scariest part psychologically to accept)

Can someone share their results with this. Demo or whatever? Or backtes at least? It is not as I demand some prove, of course not, no one owes me nothing, is just this would give a huge boost of motivation to me and I know to many many other newbies like me....

  • #88,092
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:41pm Feb 4, 2011 1:41pm
Understood. Kind of trading within the range, I think?

You know I follow your BRN method as well.

I can see how you would be able to manage the trade that way going long. Wasnt disagreeing with you just probably would have stayed on the sidelines for that.

Not sure if I could manage it, looks strange to me lolol not sure why.


Quoting mbqb11
I am ok with trading back in a box if you close above within that box. That gives you a perfect point to manage your stops and a logical place to turn back into support again. So for example if that was the 1.6 not the 1.59 and this was prime time during the week, I would for sure buy back into the box and use the now low of the box + BRN to help me manage the trade

Best
Mike
  • #88,093
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:44pm Feb 4, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting Ifmyante
By the way, what does PBT & CB mean?






PBT&CB = Price breaks through (support) and closes below (support)

PBT&CA = Price breaks through (resistence) and closes above (resistence)
  • #88,094
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:47pm Feb 4, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting dmc
Understood. Kind of trading within the range, I think?

You know I follow your BRN method as well.

I can see how you would be able to manage the trade that way going long. Wasnt disagreeing with you just probably would have stayed on the sidelines for that.

Not sure if I could manage it, looks strange to me lolol not sure why.
I know what you mean Dave. It is sort of yet another story/pattern we can use to our benefit. If you don't feel comfortable it's something to demo and watch Otherwise managing it becomes tough.

Enjoy the weekend dave, easy on the soco

Mike
  • #88,095
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:51pm Feb 4, 2011 1:51pm
Hey Mike, just curious...

Did you take the GBPUSD trade (4 hour yesterday/lower time frame today/just off the daily BEOB) or not?

Also how did/do you plan to manage it.

Just looking to see if there is anything I am missing.
  • #88,096
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:56pm Feb 4, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting Adilius07

Can someone share their results with this. Demo or whatever? Or backtes at least? It is not as I demand some prove, of course not, no one owes me nothing, is just this would give a huge boost of motivation to me and I know to many many other newbies like me....

Thank you so much SR2

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=85667
  • #88,097
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:58pm Feb 4, 2011 1:58pm
Thanks you too.

Remember liquor before beer you are in the clear.
Beer before liquor, never sicker.

But for the true champs it doesnt matter

I owe you a shot, or five


Quoting mbqb11
I know what you mean Dave. It is sort of yet another story/pattern we can use to our benefit. If you don't feel comfortable it's something to demo and watch Otherwise managing it becomes tough.

Enjoy the weekend dave, easy on the soco

Mike
  • #88,098
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:11pm Feb 4, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting Ifmyante
Thank you so much SR2

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=85667
Oh this was fast! Thanks!!! I must have missed that post.
So in 2010 there was 347 trades with 86% being winners!
And as I understand this correctly 2040 pips net profit.

And that is for 30 pips target. Well sounds like a very tight FTA to me.

So the only thing to hope is that my discretion (which he did not use) would not make these results worse than they should be

So maybe I shall just to exit at FTA then... fast and secure...

What a huge work done by SR2... thanks!!!

P.S. Maybe some demo results anyone can share too?
  • #88,099
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:16pm Feb 4, 2011 2:16pm
this looks incredible to me. Too bad it's Friday........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: potential.gif Size: 19 KB
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #88,100
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:25pm Feb 4, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting ghous
Hey Spookie,

Unless you are willing to really hold on to each and every of your trade you will mostly come across with a poor R:R. As it has been said so many times around the thread, R:R does not matter to us as much as probability does.

The importance of a large account has also been stressed upon.

You'll need two things to make moves such as the one on GBP/USD really count.

1) The ability to look at the power of probability over and above R:R

2) A large account to make 'only' 60 pips still count.

As surprising as it may sound...
Do you have any recommendations for those of use who have smaller accounts?
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