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  • #141
  • Feb 3, 2011 5:26pm Feb 3, 2011 5:26pm
Olu,

Here are the charts we spoke about.



good hunting,


golferfx
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  • #142
  • Feb 3, 2011 5:46pm Feb 3, 2011 5:46pm
You put a monthly chart of the gbchf with the current chart pattern showing a falling wedge i.e possible ending diagonal. This is a bullish signal is it not? Granted this is a monthly chart.
Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #143
  • Feb 3, 2011 5:51pm Feb 3, 2011 5:51pm
Quoting Olu
I have uploaded the daily chart of the eurjpy.

we have a 123 breakdown today @111.40
stochastic entrenched downwards
price below the 100sma
123 target is 108.80

the conditions for a sell in my system has been met. However I am looking for a retracement for entry
Short @111.20. Reasons are as listed above.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #144
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:56pm Feb 3, 2011 6:56pm
Chart for your analysis.


good hunting,


golfer
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  • #145
  • Feb 3, 2011 7:17pm Feb 3, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting Olu
Short @111.20. Reasons are as listed above.
I'm waiting it to close below the monthly [email protected] and I have my short(110.98) 5 pips below yesterday's low 111.03.
  • #146
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:31pm Feb 3, 2011 11:31pm
Thanks for contributing to the thread. I am glad you see the bearishness in this pair. It is possible for it to go right all the way to its previous lows. As we are longer term traders (trying to be!) a stop entry after the break of a low is fine. You might just have a bigger drawdown...

Thanks again Deepleo please feel free to contribute to anything on this thread
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #147
  • Edited 11:33pm Feb 3, 2011 11:32pm | Edited 11:33pm
Golfer this is the chart with the impending 123 down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #148
  • Feb 4, 2011 7:07am Feb 4, 2011 7:07am
Quoting Olu
Golfer this is the chart with the impending 123 down
The 123 down setup on the daily has been triggered. I am not in it and hope to get in on a retracement. Sould have put a stop order in...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #149
  • Feb 4, 2011 10:20am Feb 4, 2011 10:20am
Quoting deepleo
I'm waiting it to close below the monthly [email protected] and I have my short(110.98) 5 pips below yesterday's low 111.03.
Deepleo Hope your sell wasn't triggered.

Had a look just before leaving work. This market is testing the nerves...A strong upmove without any apparent reason IMHO.

I was nailed by an audusd trade yesterday and today this is misbehaving...

More analysis later...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #150
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:10am Feb 5, 2011 8:10am
This pair is at crossroads at the moment. Price is cuddling up to a major line that had become support attimes and resistance attimes. If we break through this line we will move up strongly. The old high @1.60 is not inconcievable. Momentum is positive on the daily chart. We have also closed above the 100sma on the daily albeit marginally. Confirmed reversal should be sold. At the same time confirmed breakout above 1.5400 can be cautiously bought. Please be aware that this pair has a lot of work to do on the upside judging from the entrenched downtrend on the monthly chart

Comments?
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #151
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:45am Feb 5, 2011 8:45am
As posted earlier I sold this pair @111.20 after a 123 break to the downside. Price initially hung around the same area for a while then after the NFP release (I dont usually enter trades around NFP days) it went down. By the time I looked again after work it had rallied 90pips against me! What will monday bring? Is this some new found strength in the eurjpy or just the NFP effect?

Normally the stop in a 123 breakdown should be just above (2) but I will be moving my stop to just above Friday's high. If it gets hit then I will look for another entry. This trade if it performs has a target around 108.60 at least. Secondly the rally off the the 107 lows is in three waves and according to elliott rules this move can be labelled a retracement of a previous downmove and the upmove will almost always be full retraced. This move the target down to 107 at least!

Of course the market will do what it wants and all of us are just trying get what we want out of it. It doesnt respect macd or elliott or any other technique. So we just trade our plans and see what happens
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #152
  • Feb 5, 2011 9:42am Feb 5, 2011 9:42am
I have uploaded a chart of the daily and weekly Dollar Index which is indicative of the strength of the US$. On the daily we see the stochastics has turned up. We see recent candle patterns that describe reversal. There is an attempt to try for 79.00 area. Om the weekly chart we see a well formed hammer. This came after another hammer. This describes a basing intention and if the high of the hammer(or doji? or a combination which I am calling a 'dojimar' ) is taken out we could rally hard. The last real hammer led to a 300pip rally. This equates to a reeeeeeeealy sizeable drop in the eurusd which is about 50% of the basket of currencies that make up the index

If the index is going up then the usddkk is going up as well...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #153
  • Feb 5, 2011 9:57am Feb 5, 2011 9:57am
Good job Olu.

As I do agree many markets are looking to change trends...as long term trend followers we must remain patient for trends to "really" change direction.

Thats the hard part...sitting on our hands.

2 charts...past and present.

Nice to learn lessons from the past.


good hunting,


golferfx
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  • #154
  • Feb 5, 2011 10:15am Feb 5, 2011 10:15am
Thanks for you charts and perspective. Can you give me (and the visitors to this thread) the skinny on how you use the ichimoku. Does it mean price reversal is confirmed if above the cloud? and still look for selling opportunities till that happens? By the way I use metatrader - Alpari and it has the ichimoko kin hyo indicator on it.

Thanks

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #155
  • Feb 5, 2011 1:30pm Feb 5, 2011 1:30pm
Hey Olu,

Yes, in a nut shell when price is below the "cloud" you are only looking for shorts.

Vice versa for longs.

The "chart at a glance" is the translation, is a trend following indicator for any market any time frame and let's you see in a glance where the market is trading today with all S & R built into it.

Google ichi and you can find lots of info or go to vic elc's thread and read the first few pages.

Again, best on the bigger time frames and for trend following.

Hope this helps,


golferfx
  • #156
  • Feb 5, 2011 3:35pm Feb 5, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting Olu
I have uploaded a chart of the daily and weekly Dollar Index which is indicative of the strength of the US$. On the daily we see the stochastics has turned up. We see recent candle patterns that describe reversal. There is an attempt to try for 79.00 area. Om the weekly chart we see a well formed hammer. This came after another hammer. This describes a basing intention and if the high of the hammer(or doji? or a combination which I am calling a 'dojimar' ) is taken out we could rally hard. The last real hammer led to a 300pip rally. This equates...
Wow those charts are great, with a higher low possibly being created on the weekly with a pin bar on each low....looks ominously in favour of US$...never known where to get a US index chart...not on my MT4..guess would find it on web somewhere...
  • #157
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:00pm Feb 5, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting golferfx
Olu,

Here are the charts we spoke about.



good hunting,


golferfx
Great charts GolferFx..
How long have you been trading the 123 strategy..and do you only TRADE with the TREND only..
Just curious.. how you work out your Profit Targets ??..
thanks and take care

baz
  • #158
  • Feb 6, 2011 4:08am Feb 6, 2011 4:08am
Hy Olu,

I see something unclear in your E/J trade. As I understood, you have 2 signals:

1. For direction and place - 100sma + Stoch (for example)

AFTER that, when you have signal 1 you go to:

2. Signal for entry - for example 1-2-3 formation.

In your E/J trade you have only the 2. signal. Or I miss something?

If you want to entry on daily whit 1-2-3, you have to have signal 1 on weekly, better monthly. And then, your stop have to be above point 3 from 1-2-3.

If you use the daily 1-2-3 as signal 1, you have to make the entry on 4h-chart - to llok for 1-2-3 near daily point 3, or after the price cross point 2.

That is only my opinion about the strategy and want only to help you.
  • #159
  • Feb 6, 2011 7:13am Feb 6, 2011 7:13am
Quoting baz
Great charts GolferFx..
How long have you been trading the 123 strategy..and do you only TRADE with the TREND only..
Just curious.. how you work out your Profit Targets ??..
thanks and take care

baz

Hey baz,

Thanks for the comment. Been trading 123 since college, mentored by my dad.

Trading the trend is best...but everyone has their own ideas.

In respect to Olu's thread you can always hit me up on my thread.


good hunting,

golfer
  • #160
  • Feb 6, 2011 11:56am Feb 6, 2011 11:56am
Quoting Olu
Deepleo Hope your sell wasn't triggered.

Had a look just before leaving work. This market is testing the nerves...A strong upmove without any apparent reason IMHO.

I was nailed by an audusd trade yesterday and today this is misbehaving...

More analysis later...
Olu,

Even my entry filled in and hit the stop loss. Will see what this week brings in.
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