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AUD/USD

  • #27,881
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:04pm Feb 3, 2011 8:04pm
RSI: Overbought

Stochastics: negative divergence

I'm not waiting a trend reversal but at least a retracement to 1.0160 (wish for 1.0140).
  • #27,882
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:04pm Feb 3, 2011 8:04pm
Quoting Jade Gate
The other possibility is that market will continue selling down the cross to prop AU up ahead of the NFP number.
I agree.
  • #27,883
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:06pm Feb 3, 2011 8:06pm
Is it a double top on 5m?
  • #27,884
  • Edited 8:29pm Feb 3, 2011 8:18pm | Edited 8:29pm
Quoting stock
Is it a double top on 5m?
Wait for it to test. Look at the stoch on the cross... it is very bearish still (meaning AU may have more legs north).

Higher time frames ALWAYS rule the day in fx. If you want certainty then wait for a thorough test and watch the 30M

btw, the 5M is not usually reliable, the 15M is a more reliable measure, 30M even better.
  • #27,885
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:30pm Feb 3, 2011 8:30pm
It looks like the last 30 min. candle is eating the bull candle

bearish engulfing?
  • #27,886
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:42pm Feb 3, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting stock
It looks like the last 30 min. candle is eating the bull candle

bearish engulfing?

The risk with shorting AU at this point is still significant... there is much potential for market to load up ahead of NFP (short cover for the Euro, but also hedging against a positive NFP number and further bullish traffic).... if market believes we may going for a big dose of short, then AU can keep right on tracking north for some time, conversely, if market believes the number might be good, AU is still a good bet, i.e. more bull is potentially a no-lose situation.

What we are seeing on AU at present is that a few profit takers have booked it, the rest are still in (that is a concern because there are not enough sellers to generate a proper reversal yet). Price may just consolidate here before another push north.

Hedge funds are long AU, they will want the best profit outcome for their clients at the end of the week.

Think like a banker....
  • #27,887
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:19pm Feb 3, 2011 9:19pm
Do not play. Forex is not a casino. No hasard in forex. Take care. Have a real plan. Do not be emotional. Do not jump on The market to have a trade. Wait and see. Search for confirmation. What can a trader say to an other when i saw many going against a big move that foolish many?
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,888
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:52pm Feb 3, 2011 10:52pm
i will not short aud, unless 0230 level, now is just hanging here , pointing no direction at all
  • #27,889
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:03pm Feb 3, 2011 11:03pm
Quoting Alki
Do not play. Forex is not a casino. No hasard in forex. Take care. Have a real plan. Do not be emotional. Do not jump on The market to have a trade. Wait and see. Search for confirmation. What can a trader say to an other when i saw many going against a big move that foolish many?
Perhaps you could say counter trend trade or positioning one's self for later, or quick scalp...you are regurgitating the same old trading rules passed on to the masses and through the masses, what is your analysis of the situation anything new?
Never been vouched
  • #27,890
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:19am Feb 4, 2011 1:19am
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The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #27,891
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:20am Feb 4, 2011 1:20am
Quoting iono
Perhaps you could say counter trend trade or positioning one's self for later, or quick scalp...you are regurgitating the same old trading rules passed on to the masses and through the masses, what is your analysis of the situation anything new?
Funny post !! Before precipitating to ask my analysis, go to my old posts and you will find your answer. That was the first point. The second point is regarding the "old trading rules" regurgitated. These old rules are still at work. We will not change 1+1=2 because it is an old rule dear Sir! Now if you have a new rule, up to you to share it in FF or keep it for your self, but until a genius people comes and prove an other theory, everyone will work with all basic rules like 1+1=2, if don't want to loose money.

Enjoy your trades.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,892
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:23am Feb 4, 2011 1:23am
Quoting Alki
until a genius people comes and prove an other theory, everyone will work with all basic rules like 1+1=2, if don't want to loose money.
Or 2+2=4ex.

That's me!
  • #27,893
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:28am Feb 4, 2011 1:28am
Quoting samdani786
so what,
still no direction
  • #27,894
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:34am Feb 4, 2011 2:34am
Went SHORT @ 1.0190.

I will trust the Resistance at hat level besides I have to believe it is a bit over bought right now.
  • #27,895
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:39am Feb 4, 2011 2:39am
Quoting Astroman
Went SHORT @ 1.0190.

I will trust the Resistance at hat level besides I have to believe it is a bit over bought right now.
I'm new here. What's the target then? Will it expire if the target hasnt reached within say 1 day.

Thanks.
  • #27,896
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:52am Feb 4, 2011 2:52am
Looking at the price movement. If it makes a climb Northward, I'm out. 1.0205.

Looking to break 1.0180, but then again if it looks like it is on a good downfall I will hold on a bit longer.
  • #27,897
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:33am Feb 4, 2011 3:33am
The Market seems to literally have an erection for stops on the breach of 1.02, it's as if they will sell their soul to take it there. Shorts should experience some relief in the near term.


http://i54.tinypic.com/2vln1gi.jpg

  • #27,898
  • Feb 4, 2011 5:32am Feb 4, 2011 5:32am
Quoting samdani786
got same count.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...07&postcount=2
  • #27,899
  • Feb 4, 2011 5:41am Feb 4, 2011 5:41am
The most sensible step is to wait the NFP...but if it is 139K up (forecasted 138k) then *i might start pulling the trigger to short sell the Aussie
  • #27,900
  • Feb 4, 2011 5:43am Feb 4, 2011 5:43am
Quoting longshot_nl
got same count.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...07&postcount=2

Very good!

Thanks,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
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