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Ichimoku forever

  • #15,761
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:28am Feb 3, 2011 9:28am
Quoting fxripper
how do u guys deal with this choppiness? i mean, u dont know that it'll get choppy until it happens right?
It's better to stand aside mate and wait for a break.

There's normally always an opportunity on another pair so looking elsewhere is also a way around it.

Vic's sheet concept is good for handling this situation as it was not registering a strong buy setup for the EU in the past 24 hours.

GBP pairs and CHF pairs have been the ones in the spotlight.

I know that doesn't solve the issue of how to trade sideways chatter with ichi, I guess the mantra that sometimes "no trade is the trade" comes to mind.
  • #15,762
  • Edited 10:55am Feb 3, 2011 10:38am | Edited 10:55am
Would have been a good one on EG today but I suspect most exits would have been before the news.
However, if trailing SL by the Ks then it might have been pretty close to getting stopped out before the drop? I suppose you could argue that the Ts/Ks cross happened at point B.
So, the momentum move happens from point B but if you had gotten in at point A it's questionable whether the SL should have been at the Ks or just above the kumo.

Edit: Having said that ifr you had waited for the Ks to clear support, then the trade would not have started until after B, which beings me onto the next question
When you wait for the CS to clear a SR area are you waiting simply for an immediate price break or for the 15m candle to close and the CS to be below at that point?
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  • #15,763
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:16am Feb 3, 2011 11:16am
Quoting SanMiguel
Would have been a good one on EG today but I suspect most exits would have been before the news.
However, if trailing SL by the Ks then it might have been pretty close to getting stopped out before the drop? I suppose you could argue that the Ts/Ks cross happened at point B.
So, the momentum move happens from point B but if you had gotten in at point A it's questionable whether the SL should have been at the Ks or just above the kumo.

Edit: Having said that ifr you had waited for the Ks to clear support, then the trade would not have started until...
If you took this trade at the start (0.85173) then your SL would be the opposite side of the kumo, the CS should ideally clear the resistance with a candle close which is the case here, but notice the proximity of the monthly pivot and daily S1 which are overlapping(initial target), 16 pips away and the spread on this pair is 5 pips (as per my broker) so 10 pips in and out leaving only 6 pips? not a good entry (all these calculations should be made before your entry).
your next entry would be after a close below the monthly pivot, but since that was a news candle, I would place a limit sell at the flat KS(-) spread with my SL at the upper KS or candle high and that would have been the correct entry with minimal risk. Now I would like to mention a very important principle about SL, and that is you never tweak your SL or move it early in the trade. Once you move your SL or trail it I guarantee you, you will be stopped. So unless you intend to be stopped (in profit or to BE that is, don't touch your SL before your first target is hit).
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  • #15,764
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:39am Feb 3, 2011 11:39am
Quoting lbtrader
If you took this trade at the start (0.85173) then your SL would be the opposite side of the kumo, the CS should ideally clear the resistance with a candle close which is the case here, but notice the proximity of the monthly pivot and daily S1...
I'd agree with that. I often actually exit in 3rds depending on the trade and I won;t move to break even until I have 2/3rds off the trade but it depends on the targets.
5pips, wow - that's pretty hefty.
  • #15,765
  • Edited 12:06pm Feb 3, 2011 11:48am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting SanMiguel
5pips, wow - that's pretty hefty.
why what's your's?
here'a another excellent trade for today, 196 pips sofar, but the spread here is even worse (10 bloody pips per transaction!!!!!)
the second one reached target of around 130 pips. The yen was a star today along with aussie vs euro.
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  • #15,766
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:09pm Feb 3, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting lbtrader
why what's your's?
here'a another excellent trade for today, 196 pips sofar, but the spread here is even worse (10 bloody pips per transaction!!!!!)
the second one reached target of around 130 pips. The yen was a star today along with aussie vs euro.
Nice trade!
Depending on the broker 1-2pips for EG.
EA is 5.5
  • #15,767
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:54pm Feb 3, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting lbtrader
Chikou Span entered the kumo around 5am GMT, then was bouncing off spanA and B ==> choppy. Then it emerged and was snaking like a spaghetti with the price, also==> choppy.
Could you have traded this? yes, the range was around 55 pips, so drop to 5M or 1M and trade accordingly with more modest targets.
that is if you feel you must trade
Yes! Someone finally give an answer to a question i asked a few pages ago to SM.
  • #15,768
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:56pm Feb 3, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting GeraldFX
Yes! Someone finally give an answer to a question i asked a few pages ago to SM.
which question did you ask me? Sorry but must have missed it.
  • #15,769
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:58pm Feb 3, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting SanMiguel
Would have been a good one on EG today but I suspect most exits would have been before the news.
However, if trailing SL by the Ks then it might have been pretty close to getting stopped out before the drop? I suppose you could argue that the Ts/Ks cross happened at point B.
So, the momentum move happens from point B but if you had gotten in at point A it's questionable whether the SL should have been at the Ks or just above the kumo.

Edit: Having said that ifr you had waited for the Ks to clear support, then the trade would not have started until...
If you have been trading it this way or those who trades with the sheet, have you noticed a pattern with this trading style? Here's an answer for you to find out, ... if you can find out, then even without the sheet, you know you can safely trade it. Excited? Look at the chart, the answer is there!
  • #15,770
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:00pm Feb 3, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting GeraldFX
If you have been trading it this way or those who trades with the sheet, have you noticed a pattern with this trading style? Here's an answer for you to find out, ... if you can find out, then even without the sheet, you know you can safely trade it. Excited? Look at the chart, the answer is there!
Not sure if this is what you are getting at but the high %age patterns I see are what I would normally call a bear flag or a bull flag except in the case of using it with ichi, this bear flag would occur below the kumo before a sudden momentum move normally at Euro/London open or perhaps at NY open.
  • #15,771
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:01pm Feb 3, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting SanMiguel
which question did you ask me? Sorry but must have missed it.
The question: How would you have trade a choppy market?
The answer: Go to M1 and scalp it!

Now, what is a ranging market?

It either forms a:
1. Channel
2. Pendant
3. Flag
4. Wedge

All it takes is some trend lines to help you manage your trade, not?
  • #15,772
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:05pm Feb 3, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting GeraldFX
The question: How would you have trade a choppy market?
The answer: Go to M1 and scalp it!

Now, what is a ranging market?

It either forms a:
1. Channel
2. Pendant
3. Flag
4. Wedge

All it takes is some trend lines to help you manage your trade, not?
That's if you want to trade something on M1!
The principle you're getting at though is drop to the lower timeframe and base direction off the higher timeframes.
  • #15,773
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:05pm Feb 3, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting SanMiguel
Not sure if this is what you are getting at but the high %age patterns I see are what I would normally call a bear flag or a bull flag except in the case of using it with ichi, this bear flag would occur below the kumo before a sudden momentum move normally at Euro/London open or perhaps at NY open.
What i saw was, if the perfect ichimoku setup appears near the pivot point of the day, its a good trade! It usually moves to R3, easily. (doesn't matter in which session it occurs, that is the best part!)

What is a perfect ichimoku setup? A revision shall we?
1. Strong Ts/Ks cross
2. Price below kumo
3. Chikou clear sky
4. Future kumo is pointing in the same direction

Did you realised this? I may be wrong, so don't take my words. Look back and tell me what you find out.
  • #15,774
  • Edited 1:46pm Feb 3, 2011 1:17pm | Edited 1:46pm
Quoting GeraldFX
What i saw was, if the perfect ichimoku setup appears near the pivot point of the day, its a good trade! It usually moves to R3, easily. (doesn't matter in which session it occurs, that is the best part!)

What is a perfect ichimoku setup? A revision shall we?
1. Strong Ts/Ks cross
2. Price below kumo
3. Chikou clear sky
4. Future kumo is pointing in the same direction

Did you realised this? I may be wrong, so don't take my words. Look back and tell me what you find out.
We would need a few more trades to find out but perhaps it is something to do with the way Daily Pivots are calculated, the fact that price doesn't move much overnight during the Tokyo session, and trending instruments - eg price may be near the Daily pivot by the open of the London session when the momentum moves start?

I will check out some charts over the next few days.
Good observation though
  • #15,775
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:58pm Feb 3, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting SanMiguel
We would need a few more trades to find out but perhaps it is something to do with the way Daily Pivots are calculated, the fact that price doesn't move much overnight during the Tokyo session, and trending instruments - eg price may be near the Daily pivot by the open of the London session when the momentum moves start?

I will check out some charts over the next few days.
Good observation though
Update us!
  • #15,776
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:30pm Feb 3, 2011 2:30pm
[quote=GeraldFX;4369802]What i saw was, if the perfect ichimoku setup appears near the pivot point of the day, its a good trade! It usually moves to R3, easily. (doesn't matter in which session it occurs, that is the best part!)

quote]

Hi!

I offered the use of Pivot a few month ago.
I use it, and it works well, and it increases the probability of success (for me).
If you feel, you need some more for your ichi, try it!

Atti
  • #15,777
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:58am Feb 4, 2011 3:58am
gbp/aud sell @1.584.half of the position closed at daily s1 1.582.stop is now BE
  • #15,778
  • Feb 5, 2011 11:07am Feb 5, 2011 11:07am
thanks for doing this thread. it is most enriching. i'd like to pose a question. i read a book by Agustin Silvani on 'Beat the Forex Dealer' and according to him, the brokers actually hunt stop-losses. according to your experience, what do you think of it?
  • #15,779
  • Feb 6, 2011 4:23am Feb 6, 2011 4:23am
Quoting lundu00
thanks for doing this thread. it is most enriching. i'd like to pose a question. i read a book by Agustin Silvani on 'Beat the Forex Dealer' and according to him, the brokers actually hunt stop-losses. according to your experience, what do you think of it?
Some do lundu00.

You are best off with a true ECN broker where the broker doesn't have a dealing desk so they can't hunt your stops.

Stay away from FXCM they are terrible for stop hunting at times, especially when you are a profitable trader.

Just my opinion from experience.
  • #15,780
  • Feb 7, 2011 2:19am Feb 7, 2011 2:19am
EURGBP
Not strictly protocol but this was a 30min Ts/Ks cross but I timed the entry on the 15min chart. I should add that I am not usually willing to trade breakouts because of the nature of price in the markets to trade inwards of these areas but it was the 3rd hit of the 0.8422 area and trend was down indicating a likely breakout.

Took half off at +15, leaving the rest to run.
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