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AUD/USD

  • #27,841
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:08am Feb 3, 2011 3:08am
I can assure you carry traders are absolutely loving this.

I haven't seen AUD/JPY this stable in quite some time. When it begins to falter, Aussie shorts will experience some relief.


stability breeds chaos.... only a matter of time.
  • #27,842
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:40am Feb 3, 2011 3:40am
Quoting kandarv
Approaching 1.0150 barriers, heading to 76.8 fib retracement. In the mean time, gold is down, USDCHF is up on bad Trade Balance, GBPUSD making new years high. I have no clue of what's going on.
Neither do I. Suppose we should stick to the big picture..
  • #27,843
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:54am Feb 3, 2011 3:54am
Quoting davidmaria1
Neither do I. Suppose we should stick to the big picture..

hi mate, even the big picture aint telling me anything... expect the daily and weekly is uptrend....
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,844
  • Feb 3, 2011 4:00am Feb 3, 2011 4:00am
Still waiting a clear indication from market. It could be at 1.0220 level to take short. It needs confirmation. No hurry, Wait and see. Money is made by looking for best opportunities not jumping on The market without a plan.

Enjoy your trades.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,845
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:09am Feb 3, 2011 6:09am
Hmmm...

My guess:

First, drop to 1.0060 zone again to complete a flat minor wave 4,
After that, to 1.0230.
And then, big drop to ~ 0.9750

But mostly I'm wrong...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #27,846
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:49am Feb 3, 2011 10:49am
There is a reason that all traders must accept losses. No trade set up is 100%. Sometimes a currency is going to do what it is going to do no matter what your system says or what the fundamentals point to. I am starting to think that the A/U pair is falling into this category. My system has given me several nice short signals since the new year, and most of them have kicked my butt. It looks like the one I am in now is going to do the same. I am considering cutting my losses and moving away from this pair for a while. Forex is mostly about the future, not right now. Everything about the Aussie future points to no rate increases any time soon. Still, despite a few retraces, A/U continues its relentless march north. I am growing weary of getting my butt kicked. From past experience, I know that if I flipped long then it would immediatley start a long and pronounced journey south... so that is really not an option. I will continue to monitor my trade, but if there is not a brake of 1.0055 by the end of the week, I will probably cut it loose and look for some fresh persective on another pair.

Good trades to all.....
  • #27,847
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:09am Feb 3, 2011 11:09am
I am currently taking a licking in this pair. I used the same analysis for the £ and the aud. The £ is currently working but the aud is not. unfortunately I chose to trade the aud

We live to fight (trade!) another day...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,848
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:14am Feb 3, 2011 11:14am
there are no "normal" pairs as far as i know. all, at times, make strange movements. this pair was a nice one till last spring/summer. then it ceased to be and became a demon. anyways. my opinion is that later in the night it will fall below 1.01 if it doesn't hit a new high meanwhile.
  • #27,849
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:19am Feb 3, 2011 11:19am
Quoting FX-Petra
There is a reason that all traders must accept losses. No trade set up is 100%. Sometimes a currency is going to do what it is going to do no matter what your system says or what the fundamentals point to. I am starting to think that the A/U pair is falling into this category. My system has given me several nice short signals since the new year, and most of them have kicked my butt. It looks like the one I am in now is going to do the same. I am considering cutting my losses and moving away from this pair for a while. Forex is mostly about the future,...
I know the toll it can take on the mind, been there done that. Perhaps you have the wrong perspective. I won't stand on a soap box but trading the slightest bit in terms of Fundies do not work in the short term as fundamentals themselves are irrelevant in the short term. Long term this pair will go down but in the short term it can go to 1.15, who knows ... Are you a trader or an investor? .... ask yourself that question.
  • #27,850
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:23am Feb 3, 2011 11:23am
This bitch is a fucking joke...

EUR/USD: -1.14%
AUD/USD: +0.4% (and "thanks" to the cyclone, because if not...)
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #27,851
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:38am Feb 3, 2011 11:38am
There appears to be some hesitation around this 1.0140 area. How it will resolve nobody knows. That's forex for all of us
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,852
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:43am Feb 3, 2011 11:43am
Quoting FX-Petra
There is a reason that all traders must accept losses. No trade set up is 100%. ... My system has given me several nice short signals since the new year, and most of them have kicked my butt. It looks like the one I am in now is going to do the same. ... From past experience, I know that if I flipped long then it would immediatley start a long and pronounced journey south... so that is really not an option. I will continue to monitor my trade, but if there is not a brake of 1.0055 by the end of the week, I will probably cut it loose and look...
I'm feeling pretty much the same, I'm short 'cause I can't be long with all the fundamentals signals weakening and some retracements patterns unfolding.

I have 1.0184 as an important level, so my guess is that there are lots of stops there and probably the market is going after them before the price drops again. But if I go long now... it wont happen.
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  • #27,853
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:46am Feb 3, 2011 11:46am
Quoting FX-Petra
There is a reason that all traders must accept losses. No trade set up is 100%. Sometimes a currency is going to do what it is going to do no matter what your system says or what the fundamentals point to. I am starting to think that the A/U pair is falling into this category. My system has given me several nice short signals since the new year, and most of them have kicked my butt. It looks like the one I am in now is going to do the same. I am considering cutting my losses and moving away from this pair for a while. Forex is mostly about the future,...
Crazy isn't it? Although, you have to remember it had to release some coiled up pressure. Once the top broke on the triangle, it was all over. I am a daily chart trader and have been getting my arse handed to me on e/u.

I seem to be a master of buying the tops and selling the bottoms.
  • #27,854
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:51am Feb 3, 2011 11:51am
Quoting Venice
... I seem to be a master of buying the tops and selling the bottoms.
If we can only fight our own ego... and switch the buttons labels 'Buy' <--> 'Sell', LOL
  • #27,855
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:51am Feb 3, 2011 11:51am
I am reading posts today about traders bewildered by the actions of aud today and cant help but burst out laughing. Not because I am a better trader but because I am in this situation as well and today the market is dealing with us.

Let's laugh in solidarity FX-petra, venice, Kandarv and all others in the same boat today.

wishing us all better trades than today

So here goes the laughter 1 2 3
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,856
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:12pm Feb 3, 2011 12:12pm
Guess what. Tomorrow is Friday and NFP day to boot. The big mofos will do their best to clean out the stops above 1.025 b4 calling it quit
  • #27,857
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:12pm Feb 3, 2011 12:12pm
Quoting kandarv
If we can only fight our own ego... and switch the buttons labels 'Buy' <--> 'Sell', LOL
LOL, I seriously have been contemplating doing this.
  • #27,858
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:14pm Feb 3, 2011 12:14pm
Hope to all traders to erase their losses in Aussie. If i can give an advice, is not jumping on trades because Aussie moves. Wait and see is very important to not loose money. The money you don't loose is a money that you won! It is like a trade that brings you from loss position to neutral position. Give yourselves more time for analyse and don't jump because Aussie is moving. If the train has gone, wait for the next. If you don't do that, means you are emotional. An emotional trader is not a long term sucessfull trader, and everyone wants to be a sucessfull trader. Take care.

Hope that helps.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,859
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:15pm Feb 3, 2011 12:15pm
Maybe this shit tonight has something to do with all this nonsense:


1:30 AUD
RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #27,860
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:17pm Feb 3, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting Alki
Hope to all traders to erase their losses in Aussie. If i can give an advice, is not jumping on trades because Aussie moves. Wait and see is very important to not loose money. The money you don't loose is a money that you won! It is like a trade that brings you from loss position to neutral position. Give yourselves more time for analyse and don't jump because Aussie is moving. If the train has gone, wait for the next. If you don't do that, means you are emotional. An emotional trader is not a long term sucessfull trader,...
Yes, it's just the aussie keeps giving conflicting signals to me... and I don't see that they are conflicting until the day after...

My strategy apparently needs a little extra something to wash out the noise.
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