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Phantom 6 System

  • #761
  • Feb 2, 2011 11:52pm Feb 2, 2011 11:52pm
Quoting roundrock
what are yr recovery settings ?
Recovery after 3 at 0.9
  • #762
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:41am Feb 3, 2011 3:41am
Quoting roundrock
i mentioned this idea several times in the past, but didnt receive enough recognition or discussion. i am going to write again. only thing stopping me coding this idea is limitation of my coding skills and if someone else can spend time and code i would appreciate.

idea is like this

lets say the prev basket is closed. dont enter straightaway. instead copy the trades in some memory and keep checking its drawdown. if it reaches some percentage (lets say 4%), then we enter all these orders from memory at current market price and we set PP as 4%+...
Roundrock,
I have no coding knowledge and so could not help.

The idea itself is worth testing and I for one would be happy to test and report on it.

Could you please expand on the idea a little bit more?

Another idea could be to use the movement of the pair or pairs that take us to a pop to open an immediate basket with only those fast moving pairs that took us to closure but at reduced PP and MMTU - so that we take just that little bit more out of the pairs that have helped us get to a pop of the basket.
Again, this would involve runnning "baby phantoms" that would reset every so often (at say everry 00 or 15, or 30 minutes past the hour etc) and we measure the movement of the pairs against these baby phantoms and trade only the 1 or 2 pairs that have been winners since the baby phantoms set (or reset)

Any thoughts on this anyone?
  • #763
  • Feb 3, 2011 5:32am Feb 3, 2011 5:32am
What are people's thoughts on leverage when trading this system? If I run the same EA with the same MMTU, PP, etc settings on two different brokers with different leverage, would it be correct to say that increasing leverage merely increases the speed at which gains and losses are accumulated? So given the choice, I should choose a broker with 400:1 over 50:1, right?
  • #764
  • Feb 3, 2011 7:18am Feb 3, 2011 7:18am
Quoting TheMaxx
What are people's thoughts on leverage when trading this system? If I run the same EA with the same MMTU, PP, etc settings on two different brokers with different leverage, would it be correct to say that increasing leverage merely increases the speed at which gains and losses are accumulated? So given the choice, I should choose a broker with 400:1 over 50:1, right?
You must be very very careful with high leveraged accounts
Do your homework, then do it again

A word of warning ... Do not be ' seduced ' by the results you may be seeing regarding 500:1 accounts being tested here
These are only ' do not really care what happens ' demo's to test theories etc
The large leverages do enable tests to be done quicker in many aspects, but I think I can say for sure no one would trade these live in this manner

Watch them develop, because I can almost guarantee they will go bust big time at some point
  • #765
  • Feb 3, 2011 7:58am Feb 3, 2011 7:58am
Quoting jcs
You must be very very careful with high leveraged accounts
Do your homework, then do it again

A word of warning ... Do not be ' seduced ' by the results you may be seeing regarding 500:1 accounts being tested here
These are only ' do not really care what happens ' demo's to test theories etc
The large leverages do enable tests to be done quicker in many aspects, but I think I can say for sure no one would trade these live in this manner

Watch them develop, because I can almost guarantee they will go bust big time at some point
OK, maybe I'll just stick to 50:1. It's funny how much difference leverage can make. At 50:1 Phantom6_01.mq4 generated 35% since 12 Dec. At 500:1 Phantom6_01.mq4 generate 10% since Monday.
  • #766
  • Feb 3, 2011 7:59am Feb 3, 2011 7:59am
Quoting mbkennel
My opinions:

1. cut losing trades when a losing trade reaches a certain size, OR, if worse comes to worse, overall margin reaches a certain level....
I like this. Trimming down symbols rather than trimming losing trades seems like a better way of dealing with this.
  • #767
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:22am Feb 3, 2011 8:22am
Quoting Nicastro
Roundrock,
I have no coding knowledge and so could not help.

The idea itself is worth testing and I for one would be happy to test and report on it.

Could you please expand on the idea a little bit more?

Another idea could be to use the movement of the pair or pairs that take us to a pop to open an immediate basket with only those fast moving pairs that took us to closure but at reduced PP and MMTU - so that we take just that little bit more out of the pairs that have helped us get to a pop of the basket.
Again, this would involve runnning...
here is an example

lets say RR trades this new idea and SS trades the existing idea

both start at same time. starting capital is 10000$. PP 1%

SS places orders. RR doesnt.

SS places orders. RR doesnt

SS places orders. RR doesnt

SS is in DD of 300$. Now RR enters these orders at current market prices. SS current equity is 9700 and RR current equity is 10000.

market comes back and SS reaches PP 1%. Gains 1%. current balance 10100

RR will close at same time as SS but will have account balance 10400.

-----

the idea is maintain a escrow for phantoms and release them to broker when the DD reaches a level (3% in above example). with this you aim for higher PP which would be DD threshold + PP
  • #768
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:05am Feb 3, 2011 9:05am
Hi All,

Reporting on the 1 account with the Reverse feature - ie Phan6_01xR
Thu 3rd Feb 2011


Account 1:
MMTU 5.5 %
Leverage 100:1
PP0.8
Recovery ratio at 0.9
Recovery % = 5%
Trade Count for Recovery = 3



1 Basket Opened today.
Basket openend at 8.15 GMT still open at 4.45 GMT. Largest Floating loss $134 and a floating DD of -11.01%
Total of 12 trades, of which 2 are recovery trades properly implemented.
1 recovery trade (GBPUSD) should have opened - having exceeded Recovery % of 5%.

Screenshot attached.

Roundrock, can you please look at the code again to see why the £/$ Recovery trade was not entered. The criteria for recovery is 3 trades OR 5%.

At one stage, the basket was at +$11 - but it failed to close.I am using the latest EA posted by you. Was there a reason why this should be so?

It looks as if just increasing the MMTU on a 100:1 account is not producing the same results as JCS on a 500:1 account.
I will go back to an MMTU of 2.1% next week.

JCS - What were your results for today on your demo?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea improvements 01a.gif Size: 92 KB
  • #769
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:08am Feb 3, 2011 9:08am
Quoting roundrock
here is an example

lets say RR trades this new idea and SS trades the existing idea

both start at same time. starting capital is 10000$. PP 1%

SS places orders. RR doesnt.

SS places orders. RR doesnt

SS places orders. RR doesnt

SS is in DD of 300$. Now RR enters these orders at current market prices. SS current equity is 9700 and RR current equity is 10000.

market comes back and SS reaches PP 1%. Gains 1%. current balance 10100

RR will close at same time as SS but will have account balance 10400.

-----

the idea is maintain a...

Would SS orders be real orders? Or Just Phantom Orders on which we pounce on the expectation that the market will recover?

If the market does not recover, then presumably we continue to trade the basket as we do currently.

Is that a correct interpretation?
  • #770
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:12am Feb 3, 2011 9:12am
Quoting roundrock
the idea is maintain a escrow for phantoms and release them to broker when the DD reaches a level (3% in above example). with this you aim for higher PP which would be DD threshold + PP
Isn't this idea predicated on the idea that the system will go into DD more often than it will go into profit?

In your example, say SS places an order, and RR waits for drawdown as his trade trigger. If SS's basket is profitable, he will close his basket even before RR makes a trade.

Does your testing show that drawdown is more likely to occur than a profitable basket with no drawdown?
  • #771
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:40am Feb 3, 2011 9:40am
Quoting TheMaxx
Isn't this idea predicated on the idea that the system will go into DD more often than it will go into profit?

In your example, say SS places an order, and RR waits for drawdown as his trade trigger. If SS's basket is profitable, he will close his basket even before RR makes a trade.

Does your testing show that drawdown is more likely to occur than a profitable basket with no drawdown?
yes, we could lose an opportunity to get profit if it doesnt meet our DD criteria.

most ( i dont have stats, but most of them) trades have atleast 1 cut loser, which means we can atleast expect 2% DD.

even if we try with 1% DD, we get 1% additional PP.

i couldnt test this as i need a EA to do this and the coding is little complex to hold the orders in memory and release them at appropraite time.

in fact i didnt spend much time coding this, may be i will try this as my next project.

before that i want the idea to be validated...
  • #772
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:55am Feb 3, 2011 11:55am
I am now using the latest version posted 2/2/11 and it seems to be working properly. However, trading with Tadawul the 1.1:1 or .9:1 have no effect since lot sizes can only increase or decrease .5. Here are my settings:
RecoveryPercent (RP) .5
TradeCountForRecovery (TCFR) 3
RecoveryLotRatio (RLR) 1.1
UseTradingHours (TH) false runs all the time
CloseLoserMultiplier (CLM) 1.0
MaxMarginToUse (MMTU) 0.4 for both baskets
ProfitPercent (PP) 1.0

The basket that closed today had 16 losers cut. The remaining basket that closed had 15 trades, including 1 recovery trade. Lowest margin level 978%. The demo is up 7.59% in 4 days. I can live with that - no need to go to the high risk/reward settings jcs is testing. I want to see what the EA can do with the conservative settings I will use when I go live with it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls TD_Phan6_01xR.xls   54 KB | 361 downloads
Frazer
  • #773
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:31pm Feb 3, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting roundrock
yes, we could lose an opportunity to get profit if it doesnt meet our DD criteria.

most ( i dont have stats, but most of them) trades have atleast 1 cut loser, which means we can atleast expect 2% DD.

even if we try with 1% DD, we get 1% additional PP.

i couldnt test this as i need a EA to do this and the coding is little complex to hold the orders in memory and release them at appropraite time.

in fact i didnt spend much time coding this, may be i will try this as my next project.

before that i want the idea to be validated...
Why would we want to do this?

You guys keep talking about the death basket, but we have been testing these EAs for some time now and I have not seen any reports of anyone losing their entire balance. What I have seen is people who closed their positions because they had a big DD and were afraid they would have a margin call.

Those of us who have ridden out the storm and let the EAs run even when DD got high and margin got low have found that the EAs can survive a margin call. My demos have survived 3 margin calls with IBFX and someone else (can't remember who) survived 2 with a different broker.

I admit that I probably will not have the guts to do that with a live account, but I think we can come up with a better solution than one that will cause us to lose numerous opportunities to make a profit.

My current thinking is that a more judicious use of the cut loser strategy will work for us. Some time back a EA was posted that included an option to cut a biggest loser any time margin got down to a specified level (above the 100% margin call). I tried that strategy and found that it didn't work very well because it was cutting a lot of small losers after the big ones were gone. But now I think we could limit the number of losers we cut by not cutting any until a specified margin level and then only cut losers bigger than a specified amount. For example when margin gets down to 500% cut all losers that are bigger than -2% of Last Flat Equity. That will probably cause several losers to be cut and margin will rise significantly. Then if margin gets back down to 500% again before a equity pop, it will do it again. Although 500% seems pretty high, I used it in the example because my testing of 01xR has not been lower than 978% and it has cut a lot of losers that never would have been cut had this strategy been in effect.

So far I also do not see any need for the recovery strategy. I think the better performance we are seeing here is due to the change in currency pairs.
Frazer
  • #774
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:37pm Feb 3, 2011 12:37pm
Frazer - you coded the margin call cut option using Charvo's code:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4202411

Are you able to implement it as you have described?
  • #775
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:42pm Feb 3, 2011 12:42pm
This may be of interest.

I have opened a live account with Tadawul and wanted to know exactly how their software handles a margin call. Apparently their procedure is the same as IBFX. Here is their answer to my query:


[quote]Thank you for your detailed email. Please note that there is a difference between a margin call and a margin stop out. I don’t want to confuse the two when further explaining.

A margin call will be given when any position reaches a margin level of 150% the position will turn red.

A margin stop out will close the most effected position/s (biggest losers first) at 100% automatically to sustain the rest of the open positions. Your margin will normally rise above 100% after closing the biggest losers which will enable you to trade again.
Frazer
  • #776
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:57pm Feb 3, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting TheMaxx
Frazer - you coded the margin call cut option using Charvo's code:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4202411

Are you able to implement it as you have described?
I didn't code anything - I don't have that ability. I just copied and pasted to the original EAs.

I used it a while back on 1 of my demos for a week or so until I decided it wasn't working as I had anticipated. I don't believe that coding could be used to do what I described above. I am not a programmer, but I think it would require new coding to combine the 2 strategies.
Frazer
  • #777
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:47pm Feb 3, 2011 3:47pm
Method - Post 740

Settings

Alpari UK 500:1 standard account ( 0.01 min lot size - $3,000 starting balance )

Phantom6_01xR
Check Minute 15
Recovery False
Cut Loser Trades False
Trading Hours True ... start 5 finish 17
MMTU 2
ProfitPct 1


Current Results

7 x 12 hour trading sessions

Closed Baskets 36
Account Profit 51%


I will continue to post updated results in the hope some capable and willing coder will modify the ea for this strategy in order it can be more intensively tested ( manual testing on a one hour system 12 plus hours every day on multiple accounts is not easy )
  • #778
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:52pm Feb 3, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting frazerd
I admit that I probably will not have the guts to do that with a live account ...........
Exactly !
The ea's are of little use if we are afraid to use them
  • #779
  • Feb 3, 2011 4:27pm Feb 3, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting TheMaxx
At 50:1 Phantom6_01.mq4 generated 35%since 12 Dec.
This is excellent
Do you have a statement and set file please ?

Have you any information regarding your max DD, lowest Margin Level etc as this is important to understand what " emotional pain " had to be endured to obtain the result
  • #780
  • Edited 5:09pm Feb 3, 2011 4:42pm | Edited 5:09pm
Quoting frazerd
I am now using the latest version posted 2/2/11 and it seems to be working properly. However, trading with Tadawul the 1.1:1 or .9:1 have no effect since lot sizes can only increase or decrease .5. Here are my settings:
RecoveryPercent (RP) .5
TradeCountForRecovery (TCFR) 3
RecoveryLotRatio (RLR) 1.1
UseTradingHours (TH) false runs all the time
CloseLoserMultiplier (CLM) 1.0
MaxMarginToUse (MMTU) 0.4 for both baskets
ProfitPercent (PP) 1.0

The basket that closed today had 16 losers cut. The remaining basket that closed had 15 trades, including...
Looking forward to seeing how this goes with the sensible settings

You may want to consider using the Trading Hours, most of our tests here have shown trading the late US and Asian sessions can be counter productive ....... Though I am not entirely convinced the paramerter is working as it should yet combined with the StopAfterNoTrades parameter ... ( I may be wrong, or more likely just not understanding the logic correctly .. can someone advise specifics on this please )

When my mega aggressive 500:1 test fails ( as I expect it will ) I too will be looking to see how the high leverage with conservative settings and the cutting method ( post 740 ) might pan out
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