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  • #27,821
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:01pm Feb 2, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting kentashiburo
That too me sounds like an invitation for big guys to go stop hunting. Let's see if Tokyo+Sydney can pull it through

FXCM's 100% of open positions being short is likely because they are all looking at the potential head and shoulders, thinking AU is about to put in a right shoulder.

Have a hunch they will be slaughtered. When the hedge funds are long, it really isn't smart to trade against them.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=278927

Neverthless, let's see if it chokes or not on 1.0150. Suspect we are going to 1.0300 before the serious short traffic begins.
  • #27,822
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:34pm Feb 2, 2011 6:34pm
Well, that's the best print the Aussie has had in a while. That should do my shorts in ---- stops @ 1.0175. We'll see!!

Regards
  • #27,823
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:37pm Feb 2, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Neverthless, let's see if it chokes or not on 1.0150. Suspect we are going to 1.0300 before the serious short traffic begins.
i agree that this demon won't stop going up soon. it seems that till the end of the week it is going at least to retest its recent high at about 1.0150.
  • #27,824
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:58pm Feb 2, 2011 6:58pm
should have closed my shorts while in +75pips :/ well.. gonna learn from my mistakes
  • #27,825
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:09pm Feb 2, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting FX-Petra
The numbers do not say that 100% of customers are short, just 100% of open positions. Open intrest has dropped a lot on this pair, so obviously there are a lot of accounts that have no positon/flat AU. After the ass beating shorts have taken latlely in the face of opposing fundamental news, it is no wonder traders are talking a break from this pair.

Regards,
When I said orders I meant orders relating to the AUD/USD pair, cmon now , again, it is inane to believe that ALL interest in this pair is geared to the short side.
  • #27,826
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:11pm Feb 2, 2011 7:11pm
So, why isn't AU flying to the moon on that news? Take a look at UJ. The US is still in session, while the US traders are still clinging to a dollar recovery on UJ, the majors are unlikely to move.

So, we wait for the US to go to bed, Asia takes over in the lead up to London. UJ sells down, the majors go up at pace (most likely).

Or market forces the upward move, by buying the majors regardless of what the US is doing with UJ (they will get the message).

Some potential exists for market to seriously load up AU as short cover ahead of NFP tomorrow.

And no doubt, when AU has put on another 200 pips @ 1.0300, 100% of FXCM open positions will be long Just in time for another slaughtering.
  • #27,827
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:22pm Feb 2, 2011 7:22pm
Notice what market is doing with GU. They just can't wait another minute. The slightest wiff that market is going long, and cable is off and running. Forcing the agenda.

UJ should choke around 81.70.

Then AU goes up and so too probably does the Kiwi, despite the bad NZD data.
  • #27,828
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:38pm Feb 2, 2011 7:38pm
if currency pairs obeyed to financial news the way we wanted, we should trade on news and we would have been rich by now. let alone this demon which usually obeys only to itself.
  • #27,829
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:47pm Feb 2, 2011 7:47pm
Quoting papaki
if currency pairs obeyed to financial news the way we wanted, we should trade on news and we would have been rich by now. let alone this demon which usually obeys only to itself.

The market is in fact, very precise. News gets factored in, and then the underlying trend resumes. News does not drive the direction.

But, if traders do not know the rules, or understand the importance of timing in the global trading sessions (capital flows), or if they expect fundies to drive the agenda, then it is very likely that market does seem unwieldly.

It's the challenge of getting yourself across all the fine detail that drives many traders to the brink and blown accounts. Some just can't fathom it and never will.

And a few do succeed.
  • #27,830
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:04pm Feb 2, 2011 8:04pm
not that precise, but one can make money consistently if understands what you said. however, in order to understand the aforementioned, more than one year and a half is needed in my opinion. on the other hand, one cannot learn with demo accounts, for life is too short. so, everybody ends up blowing a few accounts or so before learning.
  • #27,831
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:16pm Feb 2, 2011 8:16pm
what the duck?! gdp improved?! my lunch will not gonna taste good
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,832
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:33pm Feb 2, 2011 9:33pm
short AU. tight stop. temporary triple top in place?
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  • #27,833
  • Feb 2, 2011 10:00pm Feb 2, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting Dropped Onion
short AU. tight stop. temporary triple top in place?
partial close here
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  • #27,834
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:47am Feb 3, 2011 1:47am
looks like this will going up to 1.02 to 1.025
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,835
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:59am Feb 3, 2011 1:59am
Thank god cyclone was not as bad as expected insurance companies rallied in australia
  • #27,836
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:04am Feb 3, 2011 2:04am
Approaching 1.0150 barriers, heading to 76.8 fib retracement. In the mean time, gold is down, USDCHF is up on bad Trade Balance, GBPUSD making new years high. I have no clue of what's going on.
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  • #27,837
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:06am Feb 3, 2011 2:06am
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business...-1225999473720
  • #27,838
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:24am Feb 3, 2011 2:24am
Quoting FX-Petra
Well, that's the best print the Aussie has had in a while. That should do my shorts in ---- stops @ 1.0175. We'll see!!

Regards
Preparing to face my fate.... wish we could just get on with it.

regards,
  • #27,839
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:27am Feb 3, 2011 2:27am
wonder if Yasni will have any affects on australian dollars next days?
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #27,840
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:40am Feb 3, 2011 2:40am
Quoting FX-Petra
Preparing to face my fate.... wish we could just get on with it.

regards,
The aussie has become an indomitable beast to me lately. It could go to 1.0200 as well to test parity.
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