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Ichimoku forever

  • #15,741
  • Edited 3:56pm Feb 2, 2011 3:23pm | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting Jap
Sir,

I will be honest. I do not know the answer but here is my point. Whatever reason it will be I will respect it you know why ? because as i say earlier trading is about profit not to find perfect entry an exit. everyone has different strategy and style so why say one is right and one wrong ?

there is no holy grail.

look forward to know your reasoning.
Thank you for your answer and it is well said, but let me say that this trade was as it happened a perfect entry and the exit was exactly to the pip before it reversed. I post the chart below that led to an automatic TP. If I wanted to use a 1H chart for my TP then I would have lost as my logical TP would have been on the 1H kumo @ 1.6105.
I also post another chart that shows RSI and MACD. Now knowing what we know about both indicators, would you be able to tell this trade was going to reverse where it did?

edit: just added the ADX to the second chart.
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  • #15,742
  • Feb 2, 2011 3:30pm Feb 2, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting Jap
i do understand S/R levels but what i say is that its again highly subjective. anyone can choose different SR levels.

not that i dont respect S/R levels, but just showing that anyone can reject anything based on any falst assumption. the same way ichimoku and other indicators was rejected.

I'm not getting hot and i have nothing personal. i just want everyone's ideas to be respected. if this is too much to ask for that i m happy to banned for it.

i'm surprised why others did not object to this constant unstopable criticizm to everything...
I agree that people's application of trend/support/resistance lines to their charts are open to interpretation however in reality the market chooses S/R levels not the individual trader.

The fact that you are "happy to be banned" shows that you feel that you have been wronged or not shown respect. No one is going to ban you and the reason others aren't irate about SM questioning the effectiveness of ichimoku is they most likely just choose to ignore this for the sake of moving on the discussion back to trading rather than argument.

I am not going to say any more about this however if you're the fulltime profitable ichi trader that you indicate, you have nothing to prove to people and posting your ideas will be widely appreciated.

Thanks.
  • #15,743
  • Feb 2, 2011 3:36pm Feb 2, 2011 3:36pm
4X, a complete Japanese Bow to you good man.

best advise to ignore uneducated people. does anyone know how to use Ignore option to not show posts from some peope ?

yes sir, I'm happy to say that I'm consistently in profit and i m a full time trader for more than 5 years. not a Demo trader trying various indicators and end up in frustration.


Quoting 4xAddict
I agree that people's application of trend/support/resistance lines to their charts are open to interpretation however in reality the market chooses S/R levels not the individual trader.

The fact that you are "happy to be banned" shows that you feel that you have been wronged or not shown respect. No one is going to ban you and the reason others aren't irate about SM questioning the effectiveness of ichimoku is they most likely just choose to ignore this for the sake of moving on the discussion back to trading rather than argument.

I am not...
  • #15,744
  • Feb 2, 2011 3:37pm Feb 2, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting lbtrader
Thank you for your answer and it is well said, but let me say that this trade was as it happened a perfect entry and the exit was exactly to the pip before it reversed. I post the chart below that led to an automatic TP. If I wanted to use a 1H chart for my TP then I would have lost as my logical TP would have been on the 1H kumo @ 1.6105.
I also post another chart that shows RSI and MACD. Now knowing what we know about both indicators, would you be able to tell this trade was going to reverse where it did?
thanks lbtrader. I did not trade GU last 3 days. i will look at my charts and get back to you soon.

thanks again for understand what i m try to say. although my english is poor
  • #15,745
  • Feb 2, 2011 3:51pm Feb 2, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting mero
lol,lbtrader i took the same trade @1.618 entry.my exit was not so perfect as yours.i got out after price crossed Ts
about your question,i think next flat Ks is ok for TP
Mero, I think they are all in contest to prove each other right or wrong My guess is he posted the chart to say that it stopped at weekly resistance (that is my guess what WR is on his chart) latter added in more indicators to say that price moved first before the indicators showed the move, So then SM can say see indicators lag.

That is why you need to figure out your own system and what you are going to use, just as you pointed out the flat spots on the kumo work the same way as resistance lines, and you will see a lot of times that those are good targets, that is why some people will change to a longer time frame and use the kumo from the longer TF as a target.

You need to know what you want to use to trade for yourself, if you are not sure then just pick something and test it. You can test without having anything extra, you need to write down your system and then follow it on the charts. Even though when you just scroll back on the charts you already know where it ends up but if you just follow your system it does not matter because you are trading your system.

There are add ons for mt4 just google trade simulation mt4, and there are separate programs here is one http://www.forextester.com/ you can go back 10 years with 1 min data, and it replays the charts so it is like real time.

So to test your own system, just start with the minimum you think you need and then add stuff in and see if it helps. Since this is sort of about ichi, just start with ichi and test some trades. Then add on something else and see if it helps you, try different timeframes see what suits you.

That is the main thing your system of trading needs to match you. Just because someone else has something on their charts does not mean that you need it on your charts. You need to test it out to see if it helps you or just adds more stuff to your charts
  • #15,746
  • Feb 2, 2011 4:03pm Feb 2, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting mero
lol,lbtrader i took the same trade @1.618 entry.my exit was not so perfect as yours.i got out after price crossed Ts
about your question,i think next flat Ks is ok for TP
My exit was at the weekly resistance, and TS is a good option normally, allowing you to lock in some profits but not so early in the trade.


Quoting Gorron
Mero, I think they are all in contest to prove each other right or wrong My guess is he posted the chart to say that it stopped at weekly resistance (that is my guess what WR is on his chart) latter added in more indicators to say that price moved first before the indicators showed the move, So then SM can say see indicators lag.
Hi Gorron, there is no contest here, all I'm trying to say is both arguments are correct and I think it is widely believed that indicators are laggers.

Quoting Gorron
That is why you need to figure out your own system and what you are going to use, just as you pointed out the flat spots on the kumo work the same way as resistance lines, and you will see a lot of times that those are good targets, that is why some people will change to a longer time frame and use the kumo from the longer TF as a target.
taking a trade on 15M and managing it on 1H is a mistake I think, and that was one point I tried to make.
  • #15,747
  • Feb 2, 2011 4:09pm Feb 2, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting lbtrader
taking a trade on 15M and managing it on 1H is a mistake I think, and that was one point I tried to make.
No, what I was saying is a lot of people on here talk about looking at 1hr for ideas on where their trade will go not managing it.

That’s why everyone needs to know what their own system is, not what others do.
  • #15,748
  • Feb 2, 2011 4:10pm Feb 2, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting lbtrader
Hi Gorron, there is no contest here, all I'm trying to say is both arguments are correct and I think it is widely believed that indicators are laggers.



taking a trade on 15M and managing it on 1H is a mistake I think, and that was one point I tried to make.
I agree about indicators lagging however to me you would only be managing a 15min entry on the hourly chart if you were expecting a longer term trade.

Pretty sure that's why Vic uses the weekly pivot levels as short term targets to try to lock in part of the move and then let the rest run thus trying to get the best of both worlds.

Speaking of Vic, I got a message from him earlier saying that he and his family are safe and asking everyone to say a prayer for them because things are pretty scary there right now.

Any of you guys watch the live footage on Al Jazeera today around 1300GMT? People ramming crowds with trucks, guys throwing large chunks of concrete and molotov cocktails off 6 story building roofs onto others on the street.

Frightening stuff.
  • #15,749
  • Feb 2, 2011 4:14pm Feb 2, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting Gorron
No, what I was saying is a lot of people on here talk about looking at 1hr for ideas on where their trade will go not managing it.

That’s why everyone needs to know what their own system is, not what others do.
agree, and as I said, if that was a 1H trade I would have chosen the 1H kumo as my target, but it did not look like a good trade on te 1H chart because it was a reversal trade, and the 1H and 4H were both still trending.
  • #15,750
  • Feb 2, 2011 4:20pm Feb 2, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting 4xAddict
I agree about indicators lagging however to me you would only be managing a 15min entry on the hourly chart if you were expecting a longer term trade.

Pretty sure that's why Vic uses the weekly pivot levels as short term targets to try to lock in part of the move and then let the rest run thus trying to get the best of both worlds.
quite right, and as I mentioned that was not a good 1H entry.

Quoting 4xAddict
Speaking of Vic, I got a message from him earlier saying that he and his family are safe and asking everyone to say a prayer for them because things are pretty scary there right now.

Any of you guys watch the live footage on Al Jazeera today around 1300GMT? People ramming crowds with trucks, guys throwing large chunks of concrete and molotov cocktails off 6 story building roofs onto others on the street.

Frightening stuff.
I sent him an e-mail but no reply yet, and yes things are escalating right now, with the arrival of the secret police dressed as civilians and attacking the peaceful demonstrators on horse and camel backs, and using bricks and molotov. The latest stats indicate around 1000 injured.
  • #15,751
  • Feb 2, 2011 4:40pm Feb 2, 2011 4:40pm
thanks gorron and lb for your replys.this is what i do now,iam trying to find ichi strategy that suits me,all trades are demo.my real acc is frozen for nao till i find my way

speaking about vic and Egypt.i think we can help by keeping his wonderful thread alive and active,so people can learn and improve..what i believe was his idea from the begining!hopefully changes will come and will come soon
  • #15,752
  • Feb 2, 2011 5:01pm Feb 2, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting lbtrader
I would like to disagree here if I may, a ranging market on daily is perfect for trend trades on lower TF, same goes for weekly or monthly compared to daily....
Absolutely good info. I am going to put this in my notes, read this over and over again.

Thanks for sharing.
  • #15,753
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:57pm Feb 2, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting lbtrader
Hi Jap, I would like to post a trade I took this afternoon. I took a nice +37 pips in profit after which it reversed. I have removed the reason why I took my profit there. Can you suggest a TP level on this chart? (Please, this is not a quizz, I am trying to make a point here)
The trade was a bearish kumo breakout.
A very nice 123 setup
  • #15,754
  • Edited 3:11am Feb 3, 2011 2:49am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting lbtrader
Thank you for your answer and it is well said,...
you say the TP would have been at the kumo, is that based on a flatlining kumo or something else?

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For those interested in stats, page 16 of last month's Currency Trader mag shows an interesting analysis of indicators and how they can be adjusted to suit certain pairs:
http://www.currencytradermag.com/dow.../index.php?i=p

It raises an interesting point about the default settings for indicators.
Has anyone thought about adjusting ichi / indicator settings for their appropriate market. In reality it's fairly difficult to do as I would imagine that most of the market participants, unless they are really into quantitative / algo trading, don't have the time to find the best setting but it shows how subjective it can be (type of market, volatility, economic times, etc.)
  • #15,755
  • Edited 3:32am Feb 3, 2011 2:53am | Edited 3:32am
GBPUSD 15min trade.
Entry 1.6196
Initial SL placed below the kumo to allow room to see the price developing.
After TP1, SL trailed by Ks.
TP1 1.6216 +20 pips (+10 @ 50%)
TP2 was the daily resistance at 1.6265 but we didn't make that, so I was taken out of the market on the first candle close below the Ks +10.1 pips (+5 @ 50%)
Total profit: 15 pips

Anyone else place their initial SL below the kumo? If the trade had not started moving within 15mins and started to show candle closes below the Ks, I would often take that as a sign to get out but I know some of you hang onto the trade unless it closes below the kumo.

Now, could i have managed this better? TP1 was the logical first place to take profit as the SL was 20 pips, so to reduce risk and book some profit, TP1 is at 20 pips. TP2 could have been the 15min resistance candle and then if I had split it into 3rds, I could have left TP3 for the Daily resistance. Any thoughts?
At any rate, the trade would have been closed before the Services PMI news.

AUDUSD was probably the better pick this morning but it moved a bit quicker than GBPUSD so I wasn't able to get a good entry.
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  • #15,756
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:01am Feb 3, 2011 3:01am
how do u guys deal with this choppiness? i mean, u dont know that it'll get choppy until it happens right?
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  • #15,757
  • Feb 3, 2011 7:54am Feb 3, 2011 7:54am
Quoting fxripper
how do u guys deal with this choppiness? i mean, u dont know that it'll get choppy until it happens right?
Hi!
Only a tip for it.
I hate these times, and tried a lot of things, against the bad step ins.
The last one is a little bit similar as "The sheet", but for me, its more friendly.
So I use a meta for the usdx and eurx. I splitted the screen for both. The 1 and 4 hour Ichi are on it.
If I see there is a signal and free place to run in the same time, and to the opposite direction, I go down to lower Tf, and if its good, I take the trade.

On the picture I drawed 2 yellow line at the possibilities.
1. both are rebound from the 4h kumo.
Not too much free place, only a fast cut. :-).
2.the eurx break from the 1h kumo, and the usdx rebound from the kijun.
Both had got free place, I waited a longer run, not this. :-(

I manage it on the lower TF.

ps. You can try it to use on other pairs too, ie. if the usdx give a signal for short you can watch the usdjpy to short. But sometimes the other side is the dominant in the move, so its less sure. :-)
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  • #15,758
  • Edited 9:54am Feb 3, 2011 9:08am | Edited 9:54am
Quoting SanMiguel
GBPUSD 15min trade.
Entry 1.6196
Initial SL placed below the kumo to allow room to see the price developing.
After TP1, SL trailed by Ks.
TP1 1.6216 +20 pips (+10 @ 50%)
TP2 was the daily resistance at 1.6265 but we didn't make that, so I was taken out of the market on the first candle close below the Ks +10.1 pips (+5 @ 50%)
Total profit: 15 pips

Now, could i have managed this better? TP1 was the logical first place to take profit as the SL was 20 pips, so to reduce risk and book some profit, TP1 is at 20 pips. TP2 could have been the 15min...
Hi SM, I would have managed this trade as in the chart below.
First entry was a TS/KS right? so I wait for the CS to clear resistance (gray rectangle), and enter @ 1.6200 (also a psych level), My SL would be at the KS (-) spread , why KS? because price stopped and bounced off the KS so any close below that would invalidate the trade.
My first TP would be @ the daily R1 which is very close to Monthly R1 (confluence of resistance levels : very important consideration).
my second TP would be at the weekly R3, I expect a reversal there ( and I am not saying that in hind sight).
so there you go 34 + 62/2=65 pips.
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  • #15,759
  • Edited 11:38am Feb 3, 2011 9:18am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting fxripper
how do u guys deal with this choppiness? i mean, u dont know that it'll get choppy until it happens right?
Chikou Span entered the kumo around 5am GMT, then was bouncing off spanA and B ==> choppy. Then it emerged and was snaking like a spaghetti with the price, also==> choppy.
Could you have traded this? yes, the range was around 55 pips, so drop to 5M or 1M and trade accordingly with more modest targets.
that is if you feel you must trade
  • #15,760
  • Edited 9:57am Feb 3, 2011 9:25am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting SanMiguel
Only issue depending on the broker, I have circled an area very close to stop out (where I got stopped out for my second half anyway).
So, you basically use the TP as whatever pivot comes first (Daily, Weekly, Monthly only)?
I guess intraday SR could be used also.
sorry, this chart shows the KS I was alluding to, and no, not just those levels, but any major S/R that you think is valid.
edit: I would not have moved my SL at this stage, perhaps to the spanA if you must.
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