Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Toyo - agree with the TF analysis but I don't trade breakouts and I wouldn't advocate doing so when learning to trade as they are too obvious and often subject to fake-outs etc. There are traders who do trade these break outs and they see the market on the horizontal plane but their strategy is for lower TFs after retraces with tighter stops. Take a look at gold and oil charts.

Oil yesterday on the H1 TF was a classic example (around 1300 UK time)London took the price down all morning and there was an obvious support level that was built to try and trap the H1 break out traders. This level was then broken to the downside but the price quickly reversed as the US session opened and then crude shot up some 400 pips. Now I don't trade the H1 but I was watching it to see how price reacted to the huge move on Friday. Gold often does the same - look at the daily charts and see how often price will break the last low of the uptrend by a few pips, drawing in the shorts, only to qucikly reverse and rocket again.

PS - I would get rid of those indicators at the bottom of your screen - they will not help you in your quest to fathom PASR - often they will confuse you with contradictory signals and they are of little use because they are showing you the past. Plus you will no doubt be sent to the naughty corner by Strat!! ;-)

Hi Grimwease,

Thank you for your comment. I will remove those indicators now (less confused).

I noticed both oil and gold are very volatile (ATR > 200) whereas USDJPY is less volatile (ATR < 80). I agreed that there are a lot of fake outs but I'm shorting down towards the major down trend and protected by the SL.

Regards,
Toyogo

When every FX site, every technical anaysist (payed to write reviews), every trading blog etc awaits the iminenent retrace to short the EURUSD, then it is no surprise that the MARKET retraced on 1 singe candle (friday the 28th) and the pair continued it's way up. Is trade with the trend until the trend ends a lesson to be learned here?
I guess that is so.
Sometimes I feel the MARKET has eyes and rarely acts on a predictable way for the masses to make money, more likely the MARKET does what is least expected.

However students of this thread (myself included) could have easily just rejointed the move up to major R up to 1.3840.

OPGHM

Classic PASR

Hi Toyogo

I have been burnt many times with false breakout trades. But there is a S at the 81.10ish level that the last swing low was produced by the pair, which is right before your TP at 81.

regards

Same has been happening with the S&P and look at it, up to the clouds and that helps euro.

The trend is your friend until the end!

Here is a textbook Strat trade from first support to resistance.

I couldn't decipher the weekly chart so ignored it. Maybe Strat can help with the interpretation of it.

I entered after the hammer at the double bottom but was a little concerned that the underside of the TL would be retested.

Cheers,
JS

Boss: price is @ Boss 20

Worker: chart tells all.

It pays never to forget Dr Joe's axiom (loosely paraphrased) "It keeps going up/down until it stops going up/down"

After posting this, I decided to move all positions SL behind 20&50 instead of breakeven just in case if price rejected at 20. Price indeed rejected at 20 and now price is behind Strat's shadow. I am adding one more position with PA below Strat's shadow.

Always wanted to say that!

OK, so it's not the Alamo - but remember these charts with "zones" marked?


As Alexandra has so succinctly stated (post number 15039): "Trading is the Science of exiting, after all" (- and the few who exited the Alamo at the right time survived to fight another day too!!)

So what has happened since my last post?
And my positions?

Well, I tightened stops to under the BEEB of 28 Jan [note the lower wick of this bar probed (by 2-3 pips)the upper wick of the bar 14 December - see arrowed bars].



Proved to be a bit more in this and 31 jan bar gave us another 175pips.
I raised the stop again to under the IB of 1 Feb also arrowed and got taken out sometime on 2 Feb - and you can see what's happened since.

Now, why the IB of 1 Feb?

Those following my posts will know that I am long off the 10(+) year charts, so let's have a look at the last few years - find the last significant bottoms that we are now approaching (green ellipses). I have drawn a line at about 1.3540 through the close /open of feb/march 2006 [also happens to coincide with the low of december 2005 ( also arrowed)].

Also a line through the close/open of the next significant bottom in oct/nov 2007 at pretty much exactly 1.3700.


Now lets pull up the weekly and look at the area contained between these lines.
What do you notice?
Apart from quite a lot of PA from early 2010 onwards occurring in this zone, we also see the most recent completed weekly bar starting 23 Jan forms a
SS (-ish) bar bounded pretty much perfectly by these two lines.



So, it should be pretty clear to followers of the thread why I made the original tightening to under the bar of friday 28 jan.

Now let's zoom to the daily and have a look at price relative to our lines


We said there was another 175 pips or so upside on 31jan - but where did that bar close? Take a close look.

So it should also be pretty clear why I am watching PA on 1 Feb and why the stop was moved to under the IB of tues 1 Feb. (An interesting exercise for genuine readers of the thread - follow those two lines back in time on the daily and see how price reacts.)


So I'm out. How many pips? Hundreds and hundreds -I don't know exactly - I don't count pips.

Arrhhh....! "Significant Bottoms" - beautiful, aren't they?

"Watching and Waiting"

Very good post Wild Thing!

1.37 was always PSYCHO 1.37 for the big boys so we knew PASR was going to happen there.

How come you missed the chance to go short on Feb 02?

"Trading is the Science of exiting, after all"

Sorry couldn't disagree more.

Trading is 95% psychological and 5% technical

Master the psychology of trading and you will win hand over fist every time against "pure" technical traders.

With weakness in the EURUSD, this situation has changed.

We are back into the main dominant down trend so expect this pull back to be a CT move to 1.3550 then look for PASR to fill yer wellies back down to 1.2950

Just a thought on eurusd.. (right-left translation for whomever believes in these things).

opghm

a bit of Fun...



take care

baz

Or you could have said, "LHs and LLs" but it probably sounds Greek to you, Bouncer Man!

Yes, Baz, we laughed at this weeks ago on www.stratsforextrading.com but thanks again for another laugh.

just shows how i am way behind.... getting on in age !!!