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Phantom 6 System

  • #741
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:46pm Feb 1, 2011 8:46pm
FXCM seems a notorious criminal, you might want to research before you depozit.

Like theMaxx recommended, a good VPS usually cost 20~30$ per month, google a good one and go for it. that's some successful traders opinion, not mine, i have no VPS experiences. good luck.

Quoting achab
Hi charvo,

I know only this one, actually. VPS shouldn't be a very good reason for choosing a Forex Broker for real trading?

/achab
  • #742
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:24pm Feb 1, 2011 9:24pm
Quoting frazerd
I did change TradeCountForRecovery (TCFR) to 3 yesterday and last night I had a basket close with a problem I have never seen before. During the closing (same hour & minute), possibly an instant before the closing, two reverse trades were opened and then closed again for good size losses. There was a GBPUSD sell for 1.3 lots (6.5 times my normal .2) and a USDJPY buy for 1.55 lots (7.75 times normal.

What in the world could have caused this? I must be missing something here. All of the normal trades on those 2 pairs were closing for very large...
there's a bug in code to place recovery trades when total order count gies beyond a number. i fixed it now

basically for a recovery trade to be placed, any one in the sub-basket has to meet these conditions

total loss of this pair > rec pct

OR

total losing trade count > rec trade count

only one rec trade is placed per sub-basket
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Phantom6_01xR.mq4   60 KB | 398 downloads
  • #743
  • Feb 2, 2011 1:44am Feb 2, 2011 1:44am
Could someone explain to me why you would use recovery over cutting a trade?

In my mind the effect of cutting a loser and hedging a loser have the exact effect on your account, except that when you hedge you incur the additional cost of opening and closing the hedging trade. Is this wrong?
  • #744
  • Feb 2, 2011 2:05am Feb 2, 2011 2:05am
Quoting roundrock
there's a bug in code to place recovery trades when total order count gies beyond a number. i fixed it now

basically for a recovery trade to be placed, any one in the sub-basket has to meet these conditions

total loss of this pair > rec pct

OR

total losing trade count > rec trade count

only one rec trade is placed per sub-basket
Again, thanks for this Roundrock.

I have downloaded it and am demoing.

I noticed that at 9.15 GMT this am the EA failed to add a winning EU trade. See screenshot attached.

Can I ask you to look inside the code and see if mine was just an isolated occurrance.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea improvements 01.gif Size: 79 KB
  • #745
  • Feb 2, 2011 3:48am Feb 2, 2011 3:48am
My 500:1 leveraged test account ( settings as post 740 ) had a starting balance of $3,000

It is unquestionably the leveraging power combined with the MMTU resulting in the lot sizing and that lot sizing relationship to the ProfitPct level that is making this demo absolutely fly
It closes baskets for fun !

Can someone who is mathematical inclined advise what starting balances / settings etc would be required to generate the same profit % on 100:1 and 50:1 leveraged accounts

Thanks in advance
  • #746
  • Feb 2, 2011 5:41am Feb 2, 2011 5:41am
Quoting jcs
By not using the Cut Loser trade parameter we do not reduce the account Balance / Equity and therefore do not need a larger overall basket profit to get a closure ... a positive factor
By not using Recovery we do not ‘ freeze ‘ a pair at a predetermined loss and hence not have it contribute to a closure and at the same time we do not reduce the Margin Level further by adding this hedge trade .... a positive factor
One thing to keep in mind about the statement in bold above. Cutting losers reduces your balance but NOT your equity. The EA logic is all about your equity not the account balance. When you use cut loser or use recovery all your saying is hey, this pair is no longer doing well so lets get rid of it so it doesnt drag the equity down any farther. Now does it work? Yes sometimes it works very well. If you test for a while you will notice that many baskets close soon after a loser or two is cut.

But sometimes it doesnt work, or doesnt work enough to get an equity pop. Then you get stuck with multiple cuts and the EA slowly gets away from the equity target. I dont have a solution to this problem. Its the only thing keeping the phantoms from being great.

The idea of manualy cutting winners and losers to maintain equity is a good one and I have done this myself to help a basket recover. This is where your own best judgement comes into play. You have to decide which pairs and how many to trim off. That really cant be coded into an EA because it may be different for each basket.

One of my current phantoms was down 10% a week ago and after manually trimming some winners and losers over the past week its now only at 3% drawdown and should be able to recover. This current phantom has been running for 3 months and has gained 14% before this current drawdown. So even if I was to close it now and take the loss its still a good gain for 3 months.
  • #747
  • Feb 2, 2011 5:45am Feb 2, 2011 5:45am
Quoting TheMaxx
Could someone explain to me why you would use recovery over cutting a trade?

In my mind the effect of cutting a loser and hedging a loser have the exact effect on your account, except that when you hedge you incur the additional cost of opening and closing the hedging trade. Is this wrong?
Maxx,

You are correct. Cutting a loser or using recovery has no effect on your equity. Recovery incurs more spread cost and reduces your available margin.
  • #748
  • Feb 2, 2011 5:56am Feb 2, 2011 5:56am
Quoting thorn
Maxx,

You are correct. Cutting a loser or using recovery has no effect on your equity. Recovery incurs more spread cost and reduces your available margin.
If that is the case, why would anyone use recovery when cutting a loser is a cheaper option?
  • #749
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:14am Feb 2, 2011 6:14am
[quote=thorn;4365051]

Thanks Thorn,

" One thing to keep in mind about the statement in bold above. Cutting losers reduces your balance but NOT your equity "

Yes, thanks my mistake should have refered to balance only
But as soon as we cut a loser it is a loss to the account and hence my reasoning for only cutting a winner and a loser together

" You have to decide which pairs and how many to trim off. That really cant be coded into an EA because it may be different for each basket."

This is the very point I had been wrestling with earlier, however the more I tested the more I found it did not make that much, if any, difference as to which pairs I cut
My demo tests seem to confirm this
Do you not think cutting at a predetermined point, I have been using 250% Margin level, can be easily coded, and hence easily tested, my guess is it can
And if so, is there a reason you think this would not work ?
  • #750
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:27am Feb 2, 2011 7:27am
If we're adding additional ways to close the basket, I'd appreciate an option to close the entire basket based on the value of the aggregated loss of the basket. So if the basket is say -2% of last flat equity, it could be closed.
  • #751
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:57am Feb 2, 2011 7:57am
Method - Post 740

Settings

Alpari UK 500:1 standard account ( $3,000 starting balance - 0.01 minimum lot size )

Phantom6_01xR
Check Minute 15
Recovery False
Cut Loser Trades False
Trading Hours True ... start 5 finish 17
MMTU 2
ProfitPct 1


Current Results

6 x 12 hour trading sessions

Closed Baskets 33
Account Profit 46%


I will continue to post updated results in the hope some capable and willing coder will modify the ea for this strategy in order it can be more intensively tested ( manual testing on a one hour system 12 plus hours every day on multiple accounts is not easy )

----------------

If I had been lucky enough to have this situation on a live account ( never happens in reality does it ) the obvious way to play this now would be to withdraw the initial deposit and let the bot trade away with the markets money to see if it can repeat the profit run and take out some more etc etc or it dies trying with nothing lost

I have been waiting patiently for a multi loser scenario to see how this method deals with it, but the bot just keeps on closing baskets ... with these settings it’s insane ! ... it’s a problem of the kind I never usually have

How it deals with a multi loser scenario cannot be any different to any other version
When it happens that there are no profit trades there is no alternative but to keep cutting losers ( the start of a possible death basket ) other than closing out manually and start a new basket, which may be a good option providing enough of the quick profits have been booked to cover the loss
But when do you make that call ?

The 500:1 configuration generates profits very quickly, as it will also generate DD and equity loss quickly, so in the long run it may simply be a case of can the quick and often profits outweigh an extended DD when it arrives

This all started for me trying to find a way to minimise fear of the large DD and death basket scenario to have some comfort in a live trading situation, and it seems I may just be confirming to myself that it is simply not possible
If the markets conspire to go against the trades and continue long enough, no matter how well we think they are hedged there seems to be no stopping the inevitable

I will however keep the demo running
  • #752
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:31am Feb 2, 2011 8:31am
i mentioned this idea several times in the past, but didnt receive enough recognition or discussion. i am going to write again. only thing stopping me coding this idea is limitation of my coding skills and if someone else can spend time and code i would appreciate.

idea is like this

lets say the prev basket is closed. dont enter straightaway. instead copy the trades in some memory and keep checking its drawdown. if it reaches some percentage (lets say 4%), then we enter all these orders from memory at current market price and we set PP as 4%+ 1%= 5%. there are 2 advantages with this.

1. we gain more in basket closure. like 5% in this case

2. the drawdown of this basket would be significantly less compared to original basket. lets say original basket has 10% DD, our basket will have only 6% DD.

however disadvantages :

1. we may miss those baskets that close immediately without reaching our DD setting. but such cases are few. i have seen most baskets has atleast 1 cut loser, so even with 2% setting, we can get good results

2. since we are trading falling baskets we may get into huge drawdowns more frequently. but with 2% setting this will be a nonissue
  • #753
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:10am Feb 2, 2011 9:10am
Hi All,

Reporting on the 1 accounts with the Reverse feature - ie Phan6_01xR
Wed 2nd Feb 2011


Account 1:
MMTU 3.4 %
Leverage 100:1

3 Baskets closed:-
a) One basket openend at 8.15 GMT and closed at 9.30 GMT - 3 trades and no reversals
b) Second basket opend at 10.15 GMT and closed 27 minutes later. 4 trades and no reversals
c) Third basket opened at 11.15 GMT closed at 4.19 GMT. 8 trades and no reversals*

*For the third basket, seeing what JCS is reporting, I increased the MMTU for both Sub-baskets to 5.5 as a means of mimiking a higher leveraged account. This setting is a wild guess similar to the wild guess in setting a high MMTU from the outset (now increased once more) to try to emulate JCS's findings on a 500:1 leveraged account.

Account No 2
Moved onto to pastures new
  • #754
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:27am Feb 2, 2011 9:27am
how much PP ?
  • #755
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:50am Feb 2, 2011 9:50am
Quoting roundrock
how much PP ?
PP of 0.8
  • #756
  • Edited 10:20am Feb 2, 2011 10:19am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting jcs
Cutting Trades

..............

The method

To simplify the requirements for a cut and hence make this easy to code I have been doing the following manually :-

At 250% Margin Level I am cutting the smallest loss trade and the smallest profit trade regardless of symbol ( can be same symbol ) providing that the last added winning trade( trades ) is not cut unless......
I like the idea, but how do we know we are not closing the symbol that will eventually lead us to closure? In going down this route, while we preserve equity, we are prolonging the life of a basket for a pre-determined PP.

I think we need to accept that there will be times when it is simply best to get out of a basket and live to fight another day.

There will be lingering baskets and we must procedd on the basis that the next basket to open will be the one that will linger. We must have a get out, some form of insurance, to get us out quickly and that should be planned for at the outset.

So, trade only during the European session - preferably London Open to London Close and have preset:

-Alternate MMTU if Recovery Trades have been placed
-Alternate ProfitPct if Recovery trades have been placed
-Alternate MMTU after FinishHour
-Alternate ProfitPct after FinishHour


Provide for the possibiliy of needing a Recovery Trade. Set the Recovery rate at either 0.9 so that when the losing pairs turn round, the EA can once again add that symbol to the basket. The Alternative would be to set the Recovery rate at 2.0 so that you use the energy of the symbol that has gone against you to get you out of the market (if it continues on the same route).

As for Recovery trades, I wonder whether these would be covered by FIFO as the recovery trade will be for different sizes and at different times as the original trades forming the constituents of a basket whose trades close simultaneously ....or almost so.

Can anyone help on this last point for our US cousins?

Roundrock, would you have time to alter the code to provide for the alternate MMTU and PP settings?
  • #757
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:44pm Feb 2, 2011 12:44pm
I think we're complicating things too much. All we need to do is work out how to deal with large baskets. I'm of the opinion that we need to keep things simple.

I think there are two options:
1. Cut Losing Trades - cut a single trade based on criteria (or hedge if you prefer but I can't see the point)
2. Cut Losing Basket - cut the entire basket based on criteria

Criteria:
A. A single trade reaches a certain size
B. A basket reaches a certain size
C. Margin reaches a certain level

What do you think?
  • #758
  • Feb 2, 2011 3:08pm Feb 2, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting Nicastro
I like the idea, but how do we know we are not closing the symbol that will eventually lead us to closure?
Well obviously we don't and never can

That is why I gave up on trying to make a judgement on which symbols to cut and simply chose to close the smallest loss and smallest profit trades regardless of symbol or monetary value etc ( except for not closing the last added biggest winning trades )
It is all about preserving margin level
  • #759
  • Feb 2, 2011 5:59pm Feb 2, 2011 5:59pm
Quoting TheMaxx
I think we're complicating things too much. All we need to do is work out how to deal with large baskets. I'm of the opinion that we need to keep things simple.

I think there are two options:
1. Cut Losing Trades - cut a single trade based on criteria (or hedge if you prefer but I can't see the point)
2. Cut Losing Basket - cut the entire basket based on criteria

Criteria:
A. A single trade reaches a certain size
B. A basket reaches a certain size
C. Margin reaches a certain level

What do you think?
My opinions:

1. cut losing trades when a losing trade reaches a certain size, OR, if worse comes to worse, overall margin reaches a certain level. Most trades should be cut individually because you shouldn't be approaching a bad margin level too often.

2. when you have a full set of trades in all six symbols, cut one of each. You can only get this by going from 5 open trades to adding a new one in the sixth, so you can simulate it by checking if the next new trade would have made a full house, in which case you close 5 complementary ones instead of adding any new one.

3. When margin is particularly low and you have open trades in 5 of 6 symbols, then cut one trade in each open symbol.
  • #760
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:02pm Feb 2, 2011 7:02pm
Quoting Nicastro
Hi All,

Reporting on the 1 accounts with the Reverse feature - ie Phan6_01xR
Wed 2nd Feb 2011


Account 1:
MMTU 3.4 %
Leverage 100:1

3 Baskets closed:-
a) One basket openend at 8.15 GMT and closed at 9.30 GMT - 3 trades and no reversals
b) Second basket opend at 10.15 GMT and closed 27 minutes later. 4 trades and no reversals
c) Third basket opened at 11.15 GMT closed at 4.19 GMT. 8 trades...
what are yr recovery settings ?
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