- #15,702
- Feb 1, 2011 2:03am Feb 1, 2011 2:03am
So my next question is, how do u know if it is trending or not? Or how do u determine a ranging period? Think! Think! Think!
That's why I would like to see some stats, which I doubt we have unless someone ran it through an EA but we are in trending times so it probably works well for the moment. I just thought it would be interesting to run on something like cable back in May-Dec 2009 and see what it came up with.
The answer is all here:
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_w...=Trend_trading
We only try capture 50% of the trend. We do not try to pick the head or tail of the trend. This is the hardest mindset an ichimoku trader will have to try build because when greeds comes in, they tend to waste a lot of time to try find a system that tries to capture the head and end with the tail. It will not happen unless you apply some other technical analysis with it. I may be wrong but i was once having such mindset and i give up because...
Regards,
ChartRunner
- #15,709
- Edited 9:06am Feb 1, 2011 8:52am | Edited 9:06am
sorry but no correct. it is possible to catch trend and avoid range. use ADX and RSI. remember I say first fill the gaps where ichimoku is not do what other do. ichimoku give me entry but ADX tell me when stay out.
ADX must above 20. exit if ADX above 50 is overbought. no trade if ADX below 20.
My biggest gripe with indicators is that when looking back in history, they always look perfect but what it doesn't show is the times, the indicator goes above 20 to say 21, then back below, then back above again, then back below.
The reason I always talk about GU 2009 is that it is a great example of headfakes and a big Daily range back and forth (attached).
During that phase, the ADX is almost always above 20 when either the Ts/Ks crosses or the price has a kumo breakout, yet the pair is clearly in a range where you could only have made substantial pips trading on the lower TFs. AT a rough estimate trading on the Daily TF and placing your stop below the kumo, the loss is about 600pips (this could have been managed better of course with initial TPs and moving SLs). The ADX never reaches 50 so there would be no ADX exit.
From Jan 2010 onwards you may have got 1500 pips with an exit at the ADX > 50 in May. In theory, great that's at least a 3:1 return but with a fairly substantial drawdown.
It is by no means the be all and end all of indicating whether something is ranging. A range can be very dependent on the FX pair, the type of market, global economy, etc.
AUDUSD also attached - it shows an example of an early exit from the trend. So, maybe instead of exiting when the ADX < 50, it is better to tighten your stop to the Ts or Ks?
...and before you have a go at me, I am discussing the other viewpoint, not denouncing your strategy, ok?!
It's a nice filter to have and I see that you have it on the 1hr chart there so it would be worth looking into.
- #15,711
- Edited 9:46am Feb 1, 2011 9:34am | Edited 9:46am
I am getting the impression that you do longer term trades. Vic trades intraday using M15 for entry and checks the trend on H1 and H4,to know what direction to trade. From what I understand he mainly trades London and will occasionally carry a trade into NewYork open if he has a good one going.
The daily is only on the worksheet for expansion, it is not used at all in the calculations.
The worksheet also does not need to be continuously updated, it is updated at the start of your trading to find what pairs you will watch for entries for the day....
That aside, a ranging period is a ranging period, regardless of the TF and a range on the 1hr, 4hr, or daily might affect things. Anyway, it's all hypothetical. Better to focus on some charts over the coming weeks with 15m examples.
- #15,712
- Feb 1, 2011 10:36am Feb 1, 2011 10:36am
That aside, a ranging period is a ranging period, regardless of the TF and a range on the 1hr, 4hr, or daily might affect things. Anyway, it's all hypothetical. Better to focus on some charts over the coming weeks with 15m examples.
Hi everybody,
I just want to say a few words,
traders here and every where are always trying to milk every single pip from a trend and they are always preoccupied with picking tops and bottoms, and for this they use tons of indicators.
The fact remains that all indicators are lagging, and as SanMiguel mentioned it all looks perfect on the left side of the chart (history) and never gives an answer on the right side of the chart because it has not happened yet and no indicator can predict where the market will go.
So how do we decide when to enter or when to exit?
I think that the first question we should answer is what cycle the market is in? is it up, down or sideways?
for this ichimoku can give some hints, but one has to use all components because they are integrated. the position of price relative to kumo is very important, followed by the direction of CS, TS or KS (up down or flat) and each has it's significance and weight.
some people have difficulty using ichimoku, but no problem, use any of the available strategies that have been proven like price above/below 100 or 200 sma, price above/below tunnels based on fibo numbers, the important thing is to determine what is the current cycle, then enter according to that.
Now comes the question of what if the breakout was a fake? The answer here is : they are inevitable, and to minimize them timing is very important. London open, NY open... you will find that many pairs are very active during the european session where there is and overlap of asian, frankfort, and london, later on when NY opens there is another overlap period, these are the times when one should trade as most of the good moves occur there. Now what if a good move occurs outside those periods? well ... you are not going to catch all of them not unless you stare at your screen all day an night.
But what if you enter and you get a fake, no problem, provided that you have your money management rules applied, you will be stopped out and will re-enter when the move is confirmed or even reversed (because you should have a plan for reverse entry if the market cycle switched).
The entry and management of the trade should be in the same TF, and not entered on a lower TF then managed on a higher TF, because as many of you have noticed, higher TF can often contradict the lower TF trend but this does not preclude being profitable from a move on a lower TF even if it contradicts the higher TF provided the market cycle is in agreement with your entry on the same TF.
So once you enter with the correct market trend and correct strategy you should have already in place a stoploss and a take profit target because they are dependent on the TF. A stoploss is placed at a point where your trade would no longer be valid and should never be at a fixed pip or dollar value, this does not mean that you cannot fix how much you are willing to commit to a particular trade, it just means that you should determine where your entry becomes invalidated and given the fixed percent of your account you want to commit you are able to calculate the number of lots to trade.
Your profit should be commensurate with your TF, and should be at a logical stop where you think the trend will halt or range, be it a confluence of pivots or S/R levels, or a turn of color on Heikin Ashi, or a reversal candle. I would use a combination, a price crossing TS in the opposite direction is one of the earliest indicators of reversal, true sometimes it will take you out too early, but even then you can re-enter if the trend is still valid once the price crosses back. Don't beat yourself up if you happen to get out early if you are in profit. One way to ensure that you get some profit early is to enter with multiple lots then scale out partially as your targets are reached.
That's how I see things, hope it helps.
- #15,719
- Edited 4:55pm Feb 1, 2011 3:08pm | Edited 4:55pm
you confirmed my suspicions, you're just trying to devalue everything that is thrown to you in answers for you questions. you assume that you know everything about every indicator so you reject it. I can answer each and everthing you said about ADX becasue it is clear that you dont know very much about it but I also see that no matter how much i explain you will come back with new objections.
first you say problem with ichimoku now you say all indicators useless.
it is clear you only wasting time of everyone here. you just find problem with anything...
You will note that I also posted some valid setups with ichi in my last few posts.
I in fact even made a suggestion for you to consider/discuss around the ADX 50:
So, maybe instead of exiting when the ADX < 50, it is better to tighten your stop to the Ts or Ks?
I've nothing against you but I dont like the fact that you always devalue other's systems and strategies. you need to respect the fact that the indicators you say not work are actually working very good for a lot of people.
About ADX 50, my same point. Depends on everyone's system, if they are happy to take profit thats right for them.
there is no wrong or right here. its all about profit.
About ADX 50, my same point. Depends on everyone's system, if they are happy to take profit thats right for them.
there is no wrong or right here. its all about profit.
you appear to be the only person not taking it as a discussion, everyone else discusses the posts very politely and with valid points.
You will note that I also posted some valid setups with ichi in my last few posts.
I in fact even made a suggestion for you to consider/discuss around the ADX 50:
You need to stop taking everything as a personal attack, lighten up