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  • #27,761
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:13am Feb 1, 2011 8:13am
Man, this is brutal. I had a small short....stopped out long ago. This one was hard to see comming. I still believe we will see 95 before we see 1.05. But that dosen't mean much on a day like today. I hope all shorts are closed. I will re-enter short on 2 consecutive red 4hr candles. Good trades to all.

Regards,
  • #27,762
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:17am Feb 1, 2011 8:17am
Quoting FX-Petra
I know there are traders getting hurt right now. There is nothing, from a fundamental view, to cause this rise. From a practical view, china is on holiday for the rest of the week, so maybe there are a lot of transactions being completed today. I firmly believe this will come back down, but there is no way to know when. Above 1.01 there is really nothing in the way (technically) to stop it testing a new high.

Regards,
Stops my friend.

ALL of the moves today were without reason, they were "for-profit" moves.
Thats when all logic goes out the window.
  • #27,763
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:25am Feb 1, 2011 8:25am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Shorts slaughtering...

true that! i got a pending order at 1, so in between these time, i will just play along with the trends.... tmr will (may or may not) have a clearer trend...
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,764
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:33am Feb 1, 2011 8:33am
Quoting FX-Petra
Man, this is brutal. I had a small short....stopped out long ago. This one was hard to see comming. I still believe we will see 95 before we see 1.05. But that dosen't mean much on a day like today. I hope all shorts are closed. I will re-enter short on 2 consecutive red 4hr candles. Good trades to all.

Regards,

actually, lets us not predict it first.... by fundamental, no rate hikes, flood, billion $ worth of commodities wipe out, mining (house) might take months, these should be enough to bring aussie down to 0.92.... but after math... mining booms because of higher prices, inflations take off due to less supply of commodities, the housing market shoot up....... 1.1 or 1.13(BIG NUMBERS, but...? nothing in the world is impossible right?)
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,765
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:59am Feb 1, 2011 8:59am
finally it seems that it runs out of steam... and pair traders out of money perhaps. i kept my short positions open. don't know why. probably i was curious to see how much one can lose in a single day . i'll hedge it at around 1.0080. if i am lucky enough to reach it before going more up.
  • #27,766
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:23am Feb 1, 2011 9:23am
Quoting papaki
finally it seems that it runs out of steam... and pair traders out of money perhaps. i kept my short positions open. don't know why. probably i was curious to see how much one can lose in a single day . i'll hedge it at around 1.0080. if i am lucky enough to reach it before going more up.
As I said earlier, I hope all shorts are closed. Whatever is going on, it is not over.

Regards,
  • #27,767
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:51am Feb 1, 2011 9:51am
1.0148. It rises despite all odds and punters betting on the flood and storm. Proud of the little fella.
  • #27,768
  • Feb 1, 2011 10:02am Feb 1, 2011 10:02am
Quoting Alki
Expecting next target for Aussie at 1.0200 level (200 pips above parity) before short to 0.9830 level then maybe to the famous Ely 0.8900 target. Actually, i don't see any short at all expect obvious small retrace. Timing indicating february 1st -2nd, maybe before. I could be wrong because nothing is sure in trading, but i put already my plan to execution according to this calculation. I wait and see if wrong or right. From now money management takes control of the trades.

Enjoy your trades.
Quoting Alki
That was posted one week before. It remains today and tomorrow EST time and 150 pips to see if my whole analyze was correct or not.

During the last week, my calculation improved that i was correct, especially when i said " i don't see any short at all expect obvious small retrace". It was then obvious to follow it and go long at the best time and at the best price which was on the beginning of the week with 14 pips drawdawn as chart shows it.

As i said also in a post before, going short in 1.0200, if we arrive (because nothing is sure in...

What a trader needs more? Price and time were correct for entry and looks like correct to arrive at target. No need to take the opposite direction for now. Let's analyze the situation to search the confirmation as indicated in a post before. Up to now, there is 268 pips per lot. Waiting for some signs to get out, seen there are only 60 pips remaining to target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,769
  • Feb 1, 2011 10:44am Feb 1, 2011 10:44am
Quoting Alki
What a trader needs more? Price and time were correct for entry and looks like correct to arrive at target. No need to take the opposite direction for now. Let's analyze the situation to search the confirmation as indicated in a post before. Up to now, there is 268 pips per lot. Waiting for some signs to get out, seen there are only 60 pips remaining to target.
I am out with 764 pips for the three lots i got. No greed, it's enough. Good job Alki. lol.

No entrering before 22h00 EST and better after 03:00 EST. The importance is not to be in the market all the time, but to win when we are.

Enjoy your trades
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,770
  • Feb 1, 2011 10:49am Feb 1, 2011 10:49am
It looks like we hit the 76.4% fib almost to the exact pip. Not sure what that means, though. We'll have to wait to get info and see if shorts have surrendered, or have dug in harder. If short positions have increased, this is probably not over.

Regards,
  • #27,771
  • Feb 1, 2011 10:53am Feb 1, 2011 10:53am
Here we go shorts,now is time
  • #27,772
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:00am Feb 1, 2011 11:00am
Quoting Horuss
i hope Yasi will tomorrow erase this F country from the world map with their F currency
You might want to go for a walk through this country after the devastation and talk to the people about your views.
Biggest joker
  • #27,773
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:04am Feb 1, 2011 11:04am
Quoting Horuss
i hope Yasi will tomorrow erase this F country from the world map with their F currency
really sad to read something like this on a forex forum.
consistency wins
  • #27,774
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:04am Feb 1, 2011 11:04am
Quoting FX-Petra
It looks like we hit the 76.4% fib almost to the exact pip. Not sure what that means, though. We'll have to wait to get info and see if shorts have surrendered, or have dug in harder. If short positions have increased, this is probably not over.

Regards,
I'd like to know how you arrived at 76.4% (which isn't a fib) to the pip?
A chart perhaps ?
Thank you in advance.
Biggest joker
  • #27,775
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:15am Feb 1, 2011 11:15am
I'm trying a short around here.
Biggest joker
  • #27,776
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:31am Feb 1, 2011 11:31am
Quoting Alki
I'll see what happen from today 11h00 EST. I'll see if my whole analyze is correct or not. Up to now, price is correct and timing does so.

If the 1.0200 level is touched at indicated time, it needs confirmation for falling. Its behavior when rising will say many things, otherwise 1.0350 could aspirate aussie easily. 1.0200 level is in three prices: 1.0220, 1.0185 and 1.0195.

Falling means three resistance: parity itself, 0.9835 and 0.9540.

Nothing is sure in trading. W. D. GANN spoke many times about the unexpected. The unexpected is the...
Before going short, waiting for confirmation. The behavior of Aussie did not encourage me to apply Stop and reverse technique (my most favourite lol). I get out when 1.0140 resistance was touched and thus begin to find to exit. The ratio to wait for 1.0200 as to have an other 60 pips was too weak when i got already 260 pips when timing of bull begin to expire regarding my calculation.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,777
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:34am Feb 1, 2011 11:34am
Quoting baron193
I'd like to know how you arrived at 76.4% (which isn't a fib) to the pip?
A chart perhaps ?
Thank you in advance.
Recent decline from 1.0257 to .9800. 76.4 is not used very often, it is not one of the "big" 3--- but it is a Fib ratio. Hope that helps.

Regards,

ps-- the actual ratio is 78.6, but for some reason everyone seems to use 76.4, probably because it is the mirror image of 23.6 and so close to 78.6.
  • #27,778
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:36am Feb 1, 2011 11:36am
my little baby is going down again. if during the night it shows little or failed retracement attempts, then more downtrend to come.
  • #27,779
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:40am Feb 1, 2011 11:40am
Quoting rahulkghosh
yes but carry trades always blow up when markets are spooked
Well this one payed well. If you go back and look at my posted chart you will find the clue.
As long as resources are in demand the AUD will be strong (RBA 4.75%).
You can look at facts or you can listen to all the propaganda driven by politicians and newspapers, both views can be traded.

Good luck.
  • #27,780
  • Feb 1, 2011 2:29pm Feb 1, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I believe there is a Chinese holiday approaching.
Chinese New Year - a week long holiday to most companies. And sometimes 2 week long holiday for employees visiting the relatives or touring the country side.

Quoting FX-Petra
I suspect this bullish move has to do with China exchanges with Aussie. Look for at least 2 cosecutive 4hr bearish candles before you short.

Regards,
I believe the same thing too.
My small mining company has been negotiating with our Chinese buyers to send us the LC before Chinese New Year and I bet Aussie companies would be demanding payments just the same.

Do you know how slow Chinese Banks make payments? This is a big delay if payments are to be made after Chinese New Year. The second very long Chinese Holiday is in October (1 to 10) which our company unfortunately for the 2 years have been a victim of (payments suppose to be made in September, ended up being settled after the October Holiday...)

This is the RISK event I am hoping for since Last Week - wanting to see near parity, parity, or above parity before Feb 2. Seems I got my wish - just so happened it overdid it and I got a loss instead..
"Be careful of what you wished for it may come true..."

FYI:
I have been looking at Scrap Metal Yard's Iron Price for clues of China's bullishness. Very accurate and dependable. A week ago, scrap iron are being bought at PHP15 per Kilo. A few days ago it is PHP17 and yesterday back to PHP16. suggesting a slowdown or possibly stop buying after Chinese New Year.
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