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raczekfx chart thread

  • #381
  • Jan 31, 2011 1:02pm Jan 31, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I see there has been some discussion about oil recently...this quite pretty much sums up my view on the affect of a high oil price and why high oil price won't be sustainable over the medium-long term.

[i]“A one-dollar, one-day increase in a barrel of oil takes $12 million out of the U.S. economy,” said Jason S. Grumet, president of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington research group. “If tensions in the Mideast cause oil prices to rise by $5 for even just three months, over $5 billion dollars will leave the U.S. economy....

we are definitely in opposite direction regarding the oil price, bc my charts are telling me a higher oil in the long term, that's just the way I interpretate it and not forget my crystal ball (just kidding).

but if she dictate other opinion than mine I whould abbandon whatever I know and follow her, but in the meanwhile I'm following the flow to the upside

wish you all the best!!

edit: just look at the chart is just crazy what is happening right now, something huge is developing. Right now is the time to hope that price will go much more higher and leave the temptation of taking profits.
  • #382
  • Jan 31, 2011 1:42pm Jan 31, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting triger88990
we are definitely in opposite direction regarding the oil price, bc my charts are telling me a higher oil in the long term, that's just the way I interpretate it and not forget my crystal ball (just kidding).

but if she dictate other opinion than mine I whould abbandon whatever I know and follow her, but in the meanwhile I'm following the flow to the upside

wish you all the best!!

edit: just look at the chart is just crazy what is happening right now, something huge is developing. Right now is the time to hope that price...
Yes we sure are...charts aside, ask yourself this...what does a high oil price do to the US economy and what will happen to US equities as a consequence of a high oil price and what does this then mean for the demand for oil. Sometimes basic economics is a more reliable metric to determine where price will head than technical analysis (and I do consider myself a technical analyst and not a fundies trader!).

For example today, did you really need a chart to know that oil will rise today...no of course you didn't...that's what I mean by the fact that basic economics is sometimes a more reliable metric to determine in which direction price is heading than what a chart will tell you...there is more information in the economics at times than in a chart about where price is heading and vice versa...fundies are not that different to technical analysis in my view...trading based on fundamental knowledge is still based on historic patterns i.e. how price has reacted to certain events in the past which is exactly what technical analysis is.

Of course if you get both telling you the same thing...

Also, why is it crazy what is happening to Oil right now? It is pretty predictable if you know how the price oif oil reacts to certain events...like you would with price action etc, look at how the price of oil has reacted to similar events in the past...then you would not be so surprised and consider it crazy
  • #383
  • Jan 31, 2011 2:28pm Jan 31, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes we sure are...charts aside, ask yourself this...what does a high oil price do to the US economy and what will happen to US equities as a consequence of a high oil price and what does this then mean for the demand for oil. Sometimes basic economics is a more reliable metric to determine where price will head than technical analysis (and I do consider myself a technical analyst and not a fundies trader!).

For example today, did you really need a chart to know that oil will rise today...no of course you didn't...that's what I mean by the fact...
But Ucad rising on the back of a good Canadian GDP, rising oil and falling dollar is something we can call crazy. lol
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  • #384
  • Jan 31, 2011 2:42pm Jan 31, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes we sure are...charts aside, ask yourself this...what does a high oil price do to the US economy and what will happen to US equities as a consequence of a high oil price and what does this then mean for the demand for oil. Sometimes basic economics is a more reliable metric to determine where price will head than technical analysis (and I do consider myself a technical analyst and not a fundies trader!).

For example today, did you really need a chart to know that oil will rise today...no of course you didn't...that's what I mean by the fact...
don't want to say anything on your comments bc you will be upset if I open my mouth

letting aside what have been told till now, I have a question for you.

When will you reconsider your interpretation, if let's say price of oil will continue rising (but don't expect to go straight up bc nothing goes straight up or straight down).

what is the point of being bearish or bullish? if you don't capitalized on it.
Being bearish or bullsih will blind you not to see what's happening.

I'm just trying to point out your mindset,hope you don't get upset and you have an open mind, just trying to help here.

all the best!!
  • #385
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:06pm Jan 31, 2011 3:06pm
Quoting triger88990
don't want to say anything on your comments bc you will be upset if I open my mouth

letting aside what have been told till now, I have a question for you.

When will you reconsider your interpretation, if let's say price of oil will continue rising (but don't expect to go straight up bc nothing goes straight up or straight down).

what is the point of being bearish or bullish? if you don't capitalized on it.
Being bearish or bullsih will blind you not to see what's happening.

I'm just trying to point out your mindset,hope you don't...
Well Trigg i don't think LJ was being bullish or bearish in his post though he stated some facts that led to u thinking that he was bearish, but he just stated whats really obviuos from a fundies point of view and i think its pretty a simple thing to consider and no one have to be a hardcore fundy for this stuff.

Quote
“A one-dollar, one-day increase in a barrel of oil takes $12 million out of the U.S. economy,” said Jason S. Grumet, president of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington research group. “If tensions in the Mideast cause oil prices to rise by $5 for even just three months, over $5 billion dollars will leave the U.S. economy. Obviously, this is not a strategy for creating new jobs.”

Quote
Yes we sure are...charts aside, ask yourself this...what does a high oil price do to the US economy and what will happen to US equities as a consequence of a high oil price and what does this then mean for the demand for oil. Sometimes basic economics is a more reliable metric to determine where price will head than technical analysis (and I do consider myself a technical analyst and not a fundies trader!).

I never fell for pointless debates on FF but i know i am in good company with u guys.
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  • #386
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:22pm Jan 31, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting nasir.khan

I never fell for pointless debates on FF but i know i am in good company with u guys.
.

Nasir boy are you trying to be a smartass here

just watch your back

  • #387
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:53pm Jan 31, 2011 3:53pm
Quoting triger88990
Nasir boy are you trying to be a smartass here

just watch your back

yeah today is my being a smartass day.

Account is down near 20%.
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  • #388
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:57pm Jan 31, 2011 3:57pm
Quote
don't want to say anything on your comments bc you will be upset if I open my mouth
I won't get upset by an exchange of opinions / views ... how do you think a market is created

Quote
When will you reconsider your interpretation, if let's say price of oil will continue rising (but don't expect to go straight up bc nothing goes straight up or straight down).
I'll reconsider my iterpretation when the reasoning I've used to make my analysis is proved invalid, just like I would for every trade I take whether it is based on technical anaysis or fundamental analysis.

For example when I use technical analysis to take a trade it is mainly based on which direction I think price will head from certain price areas i.e. I'm waiting for price to reach certain areas and I expect a certain reaction at these areas...sometimes I might wait for price to confirm to me it is heading in the direction I expect it to and sometimes I won't and if price doesnt act in the way I expected it to then I cut my trade. Other times I take trades based on annomalies in the market thus in this instance I'm trading what a combination of Fx pairs is telling me now about where price is likely to head in another FX pair in the immediate future.

Quote
what is the point of being bearish or bullish? if you don't capitalized on it.
Being bearish or bullsih will blind you not to see what's happening.
You can have views of where certain instruments will head without wanting to risk money on it, I have views all the time on where price might head on certain FX pairs but that does not mean I trade all these views....as I only trade 'opinions and views' which IMO lead to the highest probability trades.

How do you know I'm not captitalizing on my view? There is mutliple ways of capitalising on a long term bearish view of oil than just trading oil. Plus just because I'm formed a bearish view in the long term (based on economic facts I believe to hold true in the long term which is based on how price has reacted to these economic situations in the past) does not mean I'm not bullish in the short term i.e. the now ... as I said I was bullish today on Oil as it was pretty obvious to me Oil would head up today and I didn't need a chart to tell me that as there are lots of different methods of reaching the same outcome, otherwise everyone succesful trader would be trading the same method wouldn't they.

Quote
I'm just trying to point out your mindset,hope you don't get upset and you have an open mind, just trying to help here.
I understand what you are saying, you are saying because I have a view on where price might heading it is blinding me to what might be happening at the moment i.e. what price is telling me now.

However, although you raise a valid point...as it is a common psychological trait for some traders who will stick with their view even if the reasoning for the trade has changed which essentially leads to not being able to accept a loss and potentially leads to a blown account, in this instance this is not what I'm doing. I have a view on Oil, based on fundamental facts which are based on how price has reacted in the past to similar events and this is what I have chosen to form my view on which direction price of oil is heading in the long term.

Having an open mind IMO is about not letting your mind get in the way of the 'reasons you use' to determine where price will head and being able to accept when this reasoning has been invalidated.
  • #389
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:40pm Jan 31, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I won't get upset by an exchange of opinions / views ... how do you think a market is created

I'll reconsider my iterpretation when the reasoning I've used to make my...
I understand your logic from a theoretical and traditional fundy perspective but the US is not the primary driver of current price action especially around Suez issues. You can see this from the spread between WTI and Brent contracts at the moment. Theoretically with shipping rates at all time lows there is little reason for speculators to not start shipping WTI to Europe for an arbitrage play but the price differential suggests maybe this is not happening?

My thoughts are that there is a missing piece of information at the moment and that something is going on behind the scenes that is yet to surface with potential for affecting Brent crude supply drastically. That or the Americans know something that Europe doesn't

I trade what I see on the charts but a spread in excess of 12 usd per barrel is historically very large and not easily explained with a basic fundy approach.
  • #390
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:55pm Jan 31, 2011 5:55pm
Quote
I understand your logic from a theoretical and traditional fundy perspective but the US is not the primary driver of current price action especially around Suez issues

I didn't say it was.

My view is based over the long term on a very basic fundamental analysis of what the affect of a high oil price will do to the US economy. It's a simple analysis and merely a view.
  • #391
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:15am Feb 1, 2011 8:15am
Quoting 4xAddict
interesting analysis out of CitigroupFX team this weekend discussing the thesis that if this latest bout of inflation is purely in commodities then coordinated action on the international front to raise the price of the USD could calm a lot of the current issues and turmoil we are seeing across the globe.

I will find the link for you soon, not saying I think it will happen over night but it is a credible idea given so many are calling for the demise of the USD.

Gaps on open were smaller than I expected, another test of 1.3750 area before a...
Here's that Citigroup document, an interesting perspective.

LJ - fair enough about the Oil price relationship to the US economy specifically. I had misunderstood your view as being a blanket assessment of the global oil market which currently to me looks a lot more likely to bounce higher circa US99 on the WTI contract before it falls again. But that's just what the charts tell me.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 47823236-Global-Focus-A-Strong-Dollar-is-in-the-world-s-interest.pdf   72 KB | 911 downloads
  • #392
  • Feb 1, 2011 10:44am Feb 1, 2011 10:44am
Quoting 4xAddict
Here's that Citigroup document, an interesting perspective.

LJ - fair enough about the Oil price relationship to the US economy specifically. I had misunderstood your view as being a blanket assessment of the global oil market which currently to me looks a lot more likely to bounce higher circa US99 on the WTI contract before it falls again. But that's just what the charts tell me.
If crude contracts gets to $99, Feds will likely call for QE3 and this will be final blow to US economy(current numbers don't give the right picture, especially if you take unemployment into account) . It will take 10-15 years (IMHO) in best scenario, for things to start getting better... but 'some' said things will never be the same. Should QE3 be pushed by the FED, I believe that the congress will block this nonsense and bernarke will quickly lose his position.
But again, who really cares.. we have our charts and common sense. Now if politicians had the latter, that would save many problems on this planet of ours.
  • #393
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:52am Feb 2, 2011 6:52am
Quoting raczekfx
If crude contracts gets to...
Which levels do you see as potential topside resistance for the EURUSD?

I get a fair bit of confluence around the 1.3870-1.3880 level. A couple of ABC extensions and the 1.618 target of the bullish butterfly reversal pattern that commenced at the most recent higher low on the daily chart.

Besides that I am seeing a little in the mid 1.39 area and then the weekly falling trend line pretty much spot on 1.40.

Still think we need a daily close below 1.3470 to confirm bearish sentiment continuation.
  • #394
  • Edited 11:51am Feb 2, 2011 11:38am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting 4xAddict
Which levels do you see as potential topside resistance for the EURUSD?

I get a fair bit of confluence around the 1.3870-1.3880 level. A couple of ABC extensions and the 1.618 target of the bullish butterfly reversal pattern that commenced at the most recent higher low on the daily chart.

Besides that I am seeing a little in the mid 1.39 area and then the weekly falling trend line pretty much spot on 1.40.

Still think we need a daily close below 1.3470 to confirm bearish sentiment continuation.
I'm not sure about ABC exts, but if we closed below 3740 today, I'd consider a temporary top in place. It might be retested again, but I doubt it, would happened before the non farm. If price of $ continues to hover around today's levels, Nonfarm could be a catalyst to buy $$ (just looking at history of nonfarms in the last 24 months), hence we could witness trend change. Those are just thoughts, what will happen we'll see soon enough. One thing I'm sure though. Euro is in much worse situation than Northern Hemisphere and is currently artificially pushed higher. It will come down hard. Too be honest, I'd welcome the come back of Deutche Mark. I miss old days..

p.s. .. then again, I might have bias since I opened $ long positions yesterday.



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  • #395
  • Feb 2, 2011 1:07pm Feb 2, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting raczekfx
I'm not sure about ABC exts, but if we closed below 3740 today, I'd consider a temporary top in place....
LOL, I have a few $longs open now too.

Interesting that the DXY hit it's long term lower trend line support on the monthly chart and looks a great point for a reversal, if not then the 74 level is the next obvious solid area of support.
  • #396
  • Feb 3, 2011 7:26am Feb 3, 2011 7:26am
Quoting 4xAddict
LOL, I have a few $longs open now too.
Good job! Doesn't it feel good when your trade plan is working...?
If you shorted near the resistance, you should be already some 100pips in profit on eurusd. Some would take profit now (when you look at daily TF), take partial profit or move stop to BE.
Who really cares at this point.
  • #397
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:07am Feb 3, 2011 8:07am
Quoting raczekfx
Good job! Doesn't it feel good when your trade plan is working...?
If you shorted near the resistance, you should be already some 100pips in profit on eurusd. Some would take profit now (when you look at daily TF), take partial profit or move stop to BE.
Who really cares at this point.

Mark watch your finger, what have you done,you did it again, insted of typing miliion did I saw billions

man it's moving fast......

it seems that my crystal ball was out of tune for 2 days because I say tuesday or maybe it was me didn't hear it clear, sure it was Thursday


edit: next week I'll buy eur as much as I can expecting 1.45 and 1.5 in 6 months
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=373

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011_02_03_eurusd.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #398
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:11am Feb 3, 2011 8:11am
Quoting raczekfx
Good job! Doesn't it feel good when your trade plan is working...?
If you shorted near the resistance, you should be already some 100pips in profit on eurusd. Some would take profit now (when you look at daily TF), take partial profit or move stop to BE.
Who really cares at this point.
If you held it till it hit support, congrats...

Busy day tomorrow (nonfarm) numbers.., got to go draft another trading plan, which hopefully works out as a nice swing trade for several crosses. I will check back in sometimes next week or so.

Enjoy the weekend and trade wisely...
Cheers,
Attached Image
  • #399
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:48am Feb 3, 2011 9:48am
Nice to see the US catching a bid for once in its life

Killed my EU shorts @ 1.3630 just now as have to leave the screen. GU short still going but trailing SL 50 pips behind, Gold short looking ok. Only Crude is reversing on me but looks a buying opportunity above 88.50 - but that's just me.

Nice trade Triger!!

This is an article you guys might find interesting about China at the moment.

Shows the dramatic decline in Chinese Power output vs GDP.

And all this happened when their economy was boooooooming.......interesting!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 48101019-The-Absolute-Return-Letter-0211.pdf   344 KB | 392 downloads
  • #400
  • Feb 3, 2011 5:06pm Feb 3, 2011 5:06pm
Possible short setting up, similar has occurred on the EUR weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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