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5Min Intraday System

  • #7,481
  • Jan 29, 2011 7:12pm Jan 29, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting Armagedoom
Ok, Thankyou MJ. I agree completely with the "high probability setup thing", failing in 2 ocasions in 1 day doesnt mean you will fail next time, but its more of a psicological thing, because sometimes when that happens to me, I try to enter more agresively just to "compensate" thoose losses, and I loose myself.

I think I will follow some kind of rule like that, not because of me lossing 2 times means I could fail a 3rd, but to "punish" myself and force myself to win, knowing that if I fail, the trading for the day can be off.

Anyone doing...
I would imagine sticking to a rule like that is good for when you are losing, and have trouble dealing with losses,because if you allow yourself more trades when your not in the right frame of mind you will ending finding trades that you should be really staying clear of.
  • #7,482
  • Jan 30, 2011 2:22am Jan 30, 2011 2:22am
Quoting adecleir
...because if you allow yourself more trades when your not in the right frame of mind you will ending finding trades that you should be really staying clear of.
I believe that is the main psychological point - and I fully agree that this is a very, very good reason to set limits.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #7,483
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:16am Jan 30, 2011 8:16am
Quoting M_j
I believe that is the main psychological point - and I fully agree that this is a very, very good reason to set limits.
This is a nice statement from the J16 thread:

"It is usually what we end up doing in between all the A+ setups that usually lead to breakeven or negative trading.”

There is so much truth in this sentence. Trading is all about patience, discipline...
  • #7,484
  • Jan 30, 2011 11:31am Jan 30, 2011 11:31am
Quoting M_j
This was a trade of today. +9.5 pips


I guess the setup was a good example of what Golfer calls: Bullish/bearish 3 pattern (even though afterwards we know it did not work out as hoped for)


Shows quite nicely how the charts afterwards are much easier to interpret
Yes, great example of bearish 3 candle formation. See my comments - by the way, nothing wrong with your TP. Well done.
Attached Image
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,485
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:33pm Jan 30, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting M_j
This was a trade of today. +9.5 pips


I guess the setup was a good example of what Golfer calls: Bullish/bearish 3 pattern (even though afterwards we know it did not work out as hoped for)


Shows quite nicely how the charts afterwards are much easier to interpret
Very risky to take short trades during a strong upward move like the past two weeks. If you do go short - 10pips should be the aim.

In trending market conditions like this, the price tends to break the 50MA, gives one pullback, then breaks again back upwards throught the 50MA. Veyr frustrated to go short against market conditions like this.

See the attached chart.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,486
  • Jan 30, 2011 1:15pm Jan 30, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Golfer,

What would you think if you see such PA like this (see ellipse) in your 5mins chart? A possible strong uptrend is coming?

Regards.
Hi O

Yes, definitely with those tails in the war zone. And the strong uptrend (see my previous post). In an uptrend like this, look for long opportunities of significant levels (bounces off those levels).
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,487
  • Jan 30, 2011 1:21pm Jan 30, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting Armagedoom
Hey all, I know this is a somewhat personal question, but I would like to ask you which are your personal rules to trade the sistem, I mean:

1: How many losses do you afford a day?
2: Do you have a maxium number of trades per day?
3: Which % you aim every day traded?
4: What triggers you stop trading for the day?

Just to have some pointers, since Im deciding that myself and dont have a clue hehe
It will depend on your style of trading - my style:

1: How many losses do you afford a day?

Depend on your risk ratio

2: Do you have a maxium number of trades per day?

No

3: Which % you aim every day traded?

I mentioned it earlier in this thread - I don't have daily aim/objectives. It puts too much pressure on you as a trader to achieve those aims. You could have good days and then you could have bad days. The bads day will "force" you to make more trades to achieve your aim. Then you tend to take trades that is not on (high risk trade) and you lose even more.

I do have a monthly aim of 5% growth per month. More realistic and it give you time to think and take the high probability setups.

4: What triggers you stop trading for the day?

Bad market rhythm indicated by price actions - that is all.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,488
  • Jan 30, 2011 1:42pm Jan 30, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting M_j
hi Golfer,

In the first page you have mentioned a number of PA patter:

e.g.

little sisters
Bullish/bearish 3 pattern
Ellipse pullback trades
Triangle trades
Church patterns formation
maybe also: 2-candle entry setup

From your vast experience over the couple of years you are involved with this system, would you be able to point out maybe 2 of them (in case you would need to choose) you feel on the whole most comfortable with.
The three little sisters and three big brothers which appear in the direction of the longer time frame.

The triangle and pennant which indicates a period of consolidation before continuing in the original direction.

Just remember - nothing is for sure in forex trading, it is all about probability and one is trying to take the high probability setups.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,489
  • Jan 30, 2011 1:50pm Jan 30, 2011 1:50pm
Thanks Golfer.

Wish you a successful coming trading week



PS: In case you will post again something like you did a couple of pages back,

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1294996509

I would be very interested if it is possible to post also the Pair, and maybe even your SL /TP settings as I would love to reconstruct this real trades on my charts for study purpose.

But I do not know if you have them in an easy accessible format - should not be any work for you.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #7,490
  • Jan 31, 2011 1:49pm Jan 31, 2011 1:49pm
Great example of a three little sisters formation.

An example how I used Vantage system for my trade (short) for 30pips profit and not consider Phillip's system for long during/after the 2nd sister was formed.

Then one could have taken a short trade on the third sister using Phillip's system for 10 or 15pips profit.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,491
  • Jan 31, 2011 1:55pm Jan 31, 2011 1:55pm
Even the 15min chart is telling you no more long trades.

Not a Phillip 5min trade but the 3rd sister on the 5min chart was there for the taking (short trade)(previous post).
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,492
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:39pm Jan 31, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting Golfer
Great example of a three little sisters formation.

An example how I used Vantage system for my trade (short) for 30pips profit and not consider Phillip's system for long during/after the 2nd sister was formed.

Then one could have taken a short trade on the third sister using Phillip's system for 10 or 15pips profit.

Very nice example.

Golfer where did you have your stop loss: just above the 2nd sister?
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #7,493
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:00pm Jan 31, 2011 7:00pm
Good responses Golfer.

Quoting Golfer
It will depend on your style of trading - my style:

1: How many losses do you afford a day?

Depend on your risk ratio

2: Do you have a maxium number of trades per day?

No

3: Which % you aim every day traded?

I mentioned it earlier in this thread - I don't have daily aim/objectives. It puts too much pressure on you as a trader to achieve those aims. You could have good days and then you could have bad days. The bads day will "force" you to make more trades to achieve your aim. Then you tend to take trades that is not on (high risk trade)...
  • #7,494
  • Jan 31, 2011 11:28pm Jan 31, 2011 11:28pm
Quoting M_j
Very nice example.

Golfer where did you have your stop loss: just above the 2nd sister?
Hi M

Yes, just above the second sister's (pinbar) high. That is where I didn't expect the price to go giving me an acceptable risk reward (R:R) ratio.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,495
  • Feb 1, 2011 7:21am Feb 1, 2011 7:21am
An example of a chart without no rhythm.

I look at the EURO today for opportunites but once I saw this whipsaw, I decide that the EURO is not tradeable using Phillip's 5min system today. Untill at least we do get direction.

What did I see:

1. The price went up and then came down during the early London session crossing the 50MA - warning sign

2. Pullbacks did not respect significant levels, war zone or 50MA (no definite support or resistance) - warning sign

3. Double top formed (black line) - warning sign


Those warning signs resulted in my decision not to take the setup highlighted with the light blue "X".


4. Then a lower high was formed (third yellow circle) forming a third sister but not in the right position to be tradeable.

5. My small intra-day trendline was broken - warning sign

6. Another lower high - 4th sister formed. Is this now a triangle being formed? Meaning the price is consolidating with lots of indecision.

7. Still no respect for significant levels or 50MA


The outcome:

a. Market condtions not favourable for Phillip's 5min system even though the 50MA is pointed nicely upwards.

b. Ignore EURO and look for another pair or go and play golf.

Just my way of looking at charts
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,496
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:10am Feb 3, 2011 2:10am
Great post!! Thanks for sharing! Must be a lot of work to get these together.
Cheers
  • #7,497
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:13pm Feb 3, 2011 12:13pm
What I saw earlier today on EURO and how I made my decision not to consider Phillip's system in the earlier session.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,498
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:18pm Feb 3, 2011 12:18pm
Even the 15min chart is telling me - no Phillip system today on the EURO. I might be wrong later in the day. Luckily I did not get involve in any of the setups today.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,499
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:20pm Feb 3, 2011 12:20pm
And yes, I did make 10pips (missed out on another 10pips because of a late entry and I did not like the setup).

Once again - the beauty of having two systems for almost diferent market conditions.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,500
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:42am Feb 4, 2011 3:42am
The follow-up of yesterday chart on the EURO. Later the day and in the NY session the EURO showed some rhythm.

It is important to identify sideway movements and trends very early in the move. It is not so easy but I do like to use the following to assist me:

1. I look for the movement of the price in relationship with the 21 and 50MA. Like early yesterday, the price crossed the 21 and 50MA all over the place = signal for me that it could be choppy market day (sideway movements.

2. I also look at how the price reacts when it reaches significant levels (previous swing highs or lows) and small intra-day trendlines. Does the price "respect" those levels?

2.1 Yes = possible trending market conditions and I'll consider using Phillip's system. Like later yesterday afternoon and NY session.

2.2 No = sideway market conditions and I would not use Phillip's system. Like early yesterday and London opening.

Be careful that you are not biased towards certain market conditions as the market conditions might changes within minutes/hours - like yesterday. Always look to the left of your chart for signs of trends and/or side way movements indicated by price patterns.

I hope it helps - like to know other opinions as well.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
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