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  • #201
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:23am Jan 31, 2011 7:23am
I think the myfxbook link is great on its own. i can just see whats going on and compare my own trades - will be giving this a go live from tomorrow.

Big thanks for the method, as one trade a day suits me beautifully
  • #202
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:09am Jan 31, 2011 8:09am
Just come to say: Congrats!! hope many many months will fall after with these (and better) results!!
  • #203
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:53am Jan 31, 2011 8:53am
Quoting puntalara
I think the myfxbook link is great on its own. i can just see whats going on and compare my own trades - will be giving this a go live from tomorrow.

Big thanks for the method, as one trade a day suits me beautifully
Start small if you're going to go live - we still haven't proven this forward for very long....

I'm thinking along the same lines - the myfxbook page is a good journal. Would probably feel differently if there was some analysis or other commentatry that went with each trade, but I really don't know if there's any need for more than a record of every trade and the result.
  • #204
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:55am Jan 31, 2011 8:55am
Quoting roundrock
i am planning to go LIVE with 5% monthly target and 1.25% , 20 pip SL
Good idea to keep risk low. You're basically cutting everything in half.

Just figure out 1.25% divided by the 20-pip stop and use that for your lot size all month. Keep a running total of pips gained or lost, and quit when you're at +80 - that will be right around your 5%.
  • #205
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:58am Jan 31, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Beman
Just come to say: Congrats!! hope many many months will fall after with these (and better) results!!
Thanks Beman. I hope so, too. Time will tell. Will probably open a small live account with OANDA as soon as they make MT4 available to live accounts. I need to run this automated, since I'm asleep at 08:00, so MT4 is a must for me.
  • #206
  • Jan 31, 2011 9:26am Jan 31, 2011 9:26am
Quoting kSelukov
sorry but I can't understand, todays situation
0:00 open on 1.5831
8:00 open 1.5874
so we need to buy
on 9:00 we have 1.5829
so we lose 20p
When 08:00 open is higher than 00:00 open, we SELL.
When 08:00 open is lower than 00:00 open, we BUY.

So, today was not a buy, it was a sell.
  • #207
  • Jan 31, 2011 9:38am Jan 31, 2011 9:38am
Quoting cgrey
When 08:00 open is higher than 00:00 open, we SELL.
When 08:00 open is lower than 00:00 open, we BUY.

So, today was not a buy, it was a sell.
yep, my fault, I've reread first post.
Thanks for help
  • #208
  • Jan 31, 2011 12:10pm Jan 31, 2011 12:10pm
Quoting puntalara
I think the myfxbook link is great on its own.
Quoting cgrey
I'm thinking along the same lines - the myfxbook page is a good journal. Would probably feel differently if there was some analysis or other commentatry that went with each trade, but I really don't know if there's any need for more than a record of every trade and the result.
I agree. I think fxbook is good enough and better than a thread.

Quoting cgrey
Thanks Beman. I hope so, too. Time will tell. Will probably open a small live account with OANDA as soon as they make MT4 available to live accounts. I need to run this automated, since I'm asleep at 08:00, so MT4 is a must for me.
cgrey and anyone else interested in Oanda's MT4, in case you were wondering, it is to my understanding that the minimum trade size is 1000 units (.01 lots). Unlike their other platform you cannot trade nano size (100 units). As I said before I prefer to trade penny per pip when forward testing a strategy as opposed to demo. If you're looking to test or take it live with Oanda MT4, the minimum trade size is 10 cents/pip. Not alot, but not to my liking for testing.
  • #209
  • Jan 31, 2011 12:20pm Jan 31, 2011 12:20pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I agree. I think fxbook is good enough and better than a thread.



cgrey and anyone else interested in Oanda's MT4, in case you were wondering, it is to my understanding that the minimum trade size is 1000 units (.01 lots). Unlike their other platform you cannot trade nano size (100 units). As I said before I prefer to trade penny per pip when forward testing a strategy as opposed to demo. If you're looking to test or take it live with Oanda MT4, the minimum trade size is 10 cents/pip. Not alot, but not to my liking for testing.
.10 / pip means 2.00/day max loss... So, that would mean a starting balance of $80 ($2 is 2.5% of 80). I should be ok. If/when I'm ready to go live to further test this, I'd probably give it about $1000 to make it worthwhile, so I'd be in the neighborhood of $1.25 / pip. But yes, anyone else may want to be looking for a broker that will do nano lots.
  • #210
  • Jan 31, 2011 12:25pm Jan 31, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting cgrey
When 08:00 open is higher than 00:00 open, we SELL.
When 08:00 open is lower than 00:00 open, we BUY.

So, today was not a buy, it was a sell.
Those bad at math might understand better:

0000 open is Lower----Sell
0000 open is Higher---Buy

  • #211
  • Jan 31, 2011 12:57pm Jan 31, 2011 12:57pm
Hello Cgrey, thanks for this system and everything you ve been posting, I also backtested manually with great results, so I'm going Oanda live tomorrow (small account)
Just one question, I ve noticed that in your fxbook the SL that appears is 30 pips away from the opening price, if I am reading it correctly.
Kind regards and happy trading
Arkpip
  • #212
  • Jan 31, 2011 1:39pm Jan 31, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting Arkpip
Hello Cgrey, thanks for this system and everything you ve been posting, I also backtested manually with great results, so I'm going Oanda live tomorrow (small account)
Just one question, I ve noticed that in your fxbook the SL that appears is 30 pips away from the opening price, if I am reading it correctly.
Kind regards and happy trading
Arkpip
I previously answered this question here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=40
  • #213
  • Jan 31, 2011 2:35pm Jan 31, 2011 2:35pm
I'm still thinking the myfxbook link will suffice for a journal. So, rather than post results every day for February, I think everyone gets it by now.

I'm still here for comments and discussion, and I'll probably post a summary now and then.

Starting balance in the demo for Februrary will be $3180.11
Monthly target of 10% is $318.01.

Good luck to those of you who mentioned you're going live.
  • #214
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:01pm Jan 31, 2011 3:01pm
Hi cgrey,

congrats, great thread!

I will trade your system on one of my live accounts starting tomorrow with a balance of 1000 €.

My monthly target will also be 10% (100 €).

Cheers and good luck to everyone,
Oliver
  • #215
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:14pm Jan 31, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Hi cgrey,

congrats, great thread!

I will trade your system on one of my live accounts starting tomorrow with a balance of 1000 €.

My monthly target will also be 10% (100 €).

Cheers and good luck to everyone,
Oliver
Good luck, Oliver. I hope it hits 10% early for you (and the rest of us)
  • #216
  • Jan 31, 2011 6:21pm Jan 31, 2011 6:21pm
Hi guys!!

I like the concept of this thread...so I made a quick backtest using Strategy Trader (more professional than MT4 in backtests)....

First of all I have to say that, at a first glance...the strategy seems profitable, anyway I found slighly different settings that perform better.

cgrey feel free to delete this posts if it's not of interest

Ok...so what I used in this backtest?
(I hope I found the right GMT times because the platform uses EDT times)

Starting Capital 1000$
Lots per trade 0,10 (1 minilot)

There is no %R position sizing or compounding in order to make all more simple, but if you consider compounding..the performance can be much better....

Open of the 08:00 GMT candle but compared to open of 06:00 GMT candle (NOT 00:00 GMT)...I choose this because 1 year backtest gave the best results.

I did not stop trading after 10% monthly goal...this backtest trades every day of the month (because coding a stop at 10% is too complicated at the moment).

1 Trade per day, 20 pips SL and 80 pips TP maximum taken at the open of 08:00 GMT and closed at the open of 09:00 GMT

Here are some screenshots...
You can see that the data are positive, the equity is rising, and if you watch Monthly Returns, you can see that every month there is a runup above 10%, but it seems that stopping at 10% is not the best choice because many months the performance is way better....I think 20% can be a better monthly goal...

Hope this is useful
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly_Returns.JPG Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Total_Trades_Analysis.JPG Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Equity_Close2Close.JPG Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Performance_Summary.JPG Size: 85 KB
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #217
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:59pm Jan 31, 2011 8:59pm
Quoting Chris_B
Hi guys!!

I like the concept of this thread...so I made a quick backtest using Strategy Trader (more professional than MT4 in backtests)....

First of all I have to say that, at a first glance...the strategy seems profitable, anyway I found slighly different settings that perform better.

cgrey feel free to delete this posts if it's not of interest

Ok...so what I used in this backtest?
(I hope I found the right GMT times because the platform uses EDT times)

Starting Capital 1000$
Lots per trade 0,10 (1 minilot)

There is...
Great stuff Chris - thanks for sharing. This is exactly what I was going for when presenting this.... The CONCEPT is to focus on the money management and probabilities. You took that concept and applied it to a different set of "rules" and found something that works. Good work.

What isn't as easy to tell from the screenshots (maybe it is and I just can't see it), is how much of the drawdown each month came after the theoretical 10% would have been hit. This, to me, is where finding the balance pays off. Yes, there were many months that returned more than 10%. And nearly every month ran up over 10% but ended up less.. But, in the end, I'm personally pretty happy with stopping at 10% gain. I won't find many other places that can return 100% + on my investment year after year. And it takes away a lot of the "what if" factor - "what if I'd have closed it out when I was up 10%"... For me, the best way to not lose is to not trade, which is why I set the rule for myself to stop when +10% is hit each month.

But again, as I've been saying all along - take this and turn it in to something that works (better) for your taste. Looks like you've done just that - congrats!
  • #218
  • Jan 31, 2011 9:45pm Jan 31, 2011 9:45pm
Quoting Chris_B
Hi guys!!

I like the concept of this thread...so I made a quick backtest using Strategy Trader (more professional than MT4 in backtests)....

First of all I have to say that, at a first glance...the strategy seems profitable, anyway I found slighly different settings that perform better.

cgrey feel free to delete this posts if it's not of interest

Ok...so what I used in this backtest?
(I hope I found the right GMT times because the platform uses EDT times)

Starting Capital 1000$
Lots per trade 0,10 (1 minilot)

There is no %R position...
chris, great data and analysis.

can you do same analysis for years 2009, 2008 ? when i optimized with MT4 each year i got different set of numbers. so i stick to the original post. in 2010 may be GMT6 is good but in 2009 may be GMT04
  • #219
  • Jan 31, 2011 10:14pm Jan 31, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting Chris_B
Hi guys!!

I like the concept of this thread...so I made a quick backtest using Strategy Trader (more professional than MT4 in backtests)....

First of all I have to say that, at a first glance...the strategy seems profitable, anyway I found slighly different settings that perform better.

l
Chris,

yeah this is very helpful. I was wondering the same thing about the money management. While I understand why Cgray would want to stop at 10%, It seems that to keep a good risk to reward ratio it is unwise to stop at 10%. I was going to run the same test but as I am a Noobie to all of this I hadn't figured out how. Thanks for saving me the time.
  • #220
  • Jan 31, 2011 10:30pm Jan 31, 2011 10:30pm
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