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  • #361
  • Jan 28, 2011 11:05am Jan 28, 2011 11:05am
Quoting squeezy
for now...for me..... yes
looking for a short to long long ....lol to 88.70ish first and maybe even 92.80 i.e. back to the top
throw in fibs (which i do for fun...lol) we r at 50/62 ret, good place to shoot back up
anyways ill post up if i enter.....
nice entry, thnx
guess where is oil now, & where next to ???
what a pity order wasnt triggered below but hey got another entry on dow
think im beginning to post too much, lol
yeah, before i forget ....... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3218
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #362
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:30pm Jan 28, 2011 9:30pm
Quoting triger88990

I'm more pessimistic than you when it comes with the price of oil in the long term,
You shouldn't be. It'll be good for man kind if...

Quote
Reserves of oil are declining, you know these are facts.
Lol, you sound like one of those analyst I enjoy to listen to with a 'light' smile on my face.
So you think, your kids and their kids will be driving chevy cameros as well...?
You'd be surprised to see, what I saw flew over our heads on the trip to Texas and Arizona. If it wasn't for our beloved mighty powers, no one would be using even a drop of oil these days.
Well..., maybe except for the cooking oil..
  • #363
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:38pm Jan 28, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting raczekfx
Not sure about dow at 11,5k, I'll shoot (no ground) 1-2 weeks...

.
Oh my, rac was wrong.. It took a couple just a couple of days...

Quoting squeezy
yeah, before i forget ....... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3218
Nice, LovJ..
Is it a coincidence
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  • #364
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:44pm Jan 28, 2011 9:44pm
'Some market players see a possible rise to $1.38 or even $1.39''
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=278276

Right, support from the bond market...

I can't read nonsense at this hour anymore. Can't even comment on it either..

Anyways.. It's been a v. good week... back to cave.

Enjoy the weekend and don't bet your house shorting Euro....
Cheers,
  • #365
  • Jan 29, 2011 4:41am Jan 29, 2011 4:41am
Quoting raczekfx

Enjoy the weekend and don't bet your house shorting Euro....
Cheers,


[/font][/color][/color]
couldn't agree more on the EU front. There's a similar daily selloff bar a week or two back in th EU the handed bears their asses. I think a daily close below 1.3470 is needed and that we're in a channel at present 1.3470-1.3750 region.

What are your thoughts on that take Racs?
  • #366
  • Jan 29, 2011 9:43am Jan 29, 2011 9:43am
Quoting raczekfx
You shouldn't be. It'll be good for man kind if...

Lol, you sound like one of those analyst I enjoy to listen to with a 'light' smile on my face.
man, did I sound like an analyst ...outch.....didn't wanted to sound like them.....thats what's happening when you speek to much

Quoting raczekfx
So you think, your kids and their kids will be driving chevy cameros as well...?
You'd be surprised to see, what I saw flew over our heads on the trip to Texas and Arizona. If it wasn't for our beloved mighty powers, no one would be using even a drop of oil these days.
Well..., maybe except for the cooking oil..

if not even the recent action doesn't speek up for you, we definitely have different outlook regarding the price of oil. I'll look close for any changing in price behavior

the world is changing...fast.

price of food have been rising from....don't even remember...so what can stop it rising further.

all the best and have a great weekend!!
  • #367
  • Jan 29, 2011 1:18pm Jan 29, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting raczekfx
'Some market players see a possible rise to $1.38 or even $1.39''
[color=blue]http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=278276

Right, support from the bond market...

I can't read nonsense at this hour anymore. Can't even comment on it either..

Anyways.. It's been a v. good week... back to cave.

[font=arial][color=blue]Enjoy...
Mark have you listen to sarkozy lately (just kidding):

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/0...oreignExchange

Let me tell you something monday they will manipulate the price to the upside,they will buy euro again ,they will give false hopes to traders around the world to buy it, and tuesday they will dump upon those who fall in to this trap, they need to get from somewhere liquidity,so it's a good strategie to create this illusion.

I'm going to follow them in whatever direction. if they say mondey so be it

Isn't odd that Sarkozy says that those who will bet against euro will lose, but the market sell of, it indicated that there must be a tremendous underlying supply. So is a good strategie to "fade" Sarkozy's speech.

tell me now, does it sound like one of those analysts

I think I'm speaking too much lately, is weekend and my mind is working on any kind of scenarios

all the best!
  • #368
  • Jan 30, 2011 1:25am Jan 30, 2011 1:25am
Quoting triger88990
...
price of food have been rising from....don't even remember...so what can stop it rising further...
price of everything has been rising right from our birth, at least in my place.
oil, etc freaking price hikes since around 2007-2008
  • #369
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:18am Jan 30, 2011 6:18am
Quoting triger88990

if not even the recent action doesn't speek up for you, we definitely have different outlook regarding the price of oil...........
let's not forget Egypt, we can't ignore this, this events will add extra fuel to the price

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/28/mark...gypt/index.htm
  • #370
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:30pm Jan 30, 2011 6:30pm
interesting analysis out of CitigroupFX team this weekend discussing the thesis that if this latest bout of inflation is purely in commodities then coordinated action on the international front to raise the price of the USD could calm a lot of the current issues and turmoil we are seeing across the globe.

I will find the link for you soon, not saying I think it will happen over night but it is a credible idea given so many are calling for the demise of the USD.

Gaps on open were smaller than I expected, another test of 1.3750 area before a fall in the EU?
  • #371
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:29pm Jan 30, 2011 7:29pm
Quoting 4xAddict
couldn't agree more on the EU front. There's a similar daily selloff bar a week or two back in th EU the handed bears their asses. I think a daily close below 1.3470 is needed and that we're in a channel at present 1.3470-1.3750 region.

What are your thoughts on that take Racs?
On Euro?
It's going down to 1.29 and beyond.
Having said that, it's not going to happen overnight.
  • #372
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:34pm Jan 30, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting triger88990
Mark have you listen to sarkozy lately (just kidding):
I speak many languages... but unfortunately never met a French woman...

Quote
Isn't odd that Sarkozy says that those who will bet against euro will lose,

... and I keep hearing that US supports strong dollar..
If you lived long enough, you should know that politicians and the truth don't have much in common.

Enjoy the new trading week!
  • #373
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:47am Jan 31, 2011 7:47am
Quoting triger88990
....................
Let me tell you something monday they will manipulate the price to the upside,they will buy euro again ,they will give false hopes to traders around the world to buy it, and tuesday they will dump upon those who fall in to this trap, they need to get from somewhere liquidity,so it's a good strategie to create this illusion.
.................
It seems that my crystal ball is working great ...that's voodoo stuff, I always put my money where my mouth is .

looking for a flip flap

Also bought gbpusd and looking the same

all the best!!

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  • #374
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:31am Jan 31, 2011 8:31am
Quoting triger88990
It seems that my crystal ball is working great ...that's voodoo stuff, I always put my money where my mouth is .

looking for a flip flap

Also bought gbpusd and looking the same

all the best!!

Attachment
Excellent ball,isn't it... now you can send it back to me. I thought you only wanted to borrow it for a month. It's been a quarter already....

BTW. What's your equity chart for Jan 2011? It should be grater than 45% steep, lol.
Here's ours... (mid month posted here)
.
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  • #375
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:42am Jan 31, 2011 8:42am
Quoting raczekfx
Excellent ball,isn't it... now you can send it back to me. I thought you only wanted to borrow it for a month. It's been a quarter already....
BTW. What's your equity chart for Jan 2011? It should be grater than 45% steep, lol.
Here's ours... (mid month posted here)
.

Just WOW!

You are the man Mark, you know that I respect you a lot, learn a lot just for staring at your charts and making my own reasoning and my own interpretation on price behavior, but your chart had been leading me to make my own discovery.

My equity curve isn't as smooth as yours but is close to it, but in term of $$ I'm recovering after last year, and I feel great.

wish you all the best and I wish you achieve all your goals for 2011.
  • #376
  • Jan 31, 2011 9:03am Jan 31, 2011 9:03am
Quoting triger88990
It seems that my crystal ball is working great ...
Quoting raczekfx
Excellent ball,isn't it... now you can send it back to me. I thought you only wanted to borrow it for a month. It's been a quarter already....
...Here's ours.....
.
i think mine is an inverted version of yours

really awesome, guys!
cowabunga!
  • #377
  • Jan 31, 2011 11:02am Jan 31, 2011 11:02am
Quoting triger88990
Just WOW!

You are the man Mark, you know that I respect you a lot, learn a lot just for staring at your charts and making my own reasoning and my own interpretation on price behavior, but your chart had been leading me to make my own discovery.

My equity curve isn't as smooth as yours but is close to it, but in term of $$ I'm recovering after last year, and I feel great.

wish you all the best and I wish you achieve all your goals for 2011.

Oh my, oh my.... Thanks triger, but I lost my Ego some time ago, SO.. enough of sugar coating...

I want my ball back...

Btw.
current results don't guarantee future will be as good. We always fight our hidden demons, weaknesses, 'know it better', greed and fear...
Those last two plus one's EGO can lead to self destruction of a trader. What's most important (imo) is to look back and see what went wrong or what worked and always seek improvement.
We are all humans (at least most of us) and make mistakes, but failure to learn from them is a poor excuse of a human being..
If certain monster, back 70y ago (who claimed to admire Napoleon), didn't have such an ego and remembered what happen to Nap in Russia, we'd be all speaking German now

Cheers. Over and out.
  • #378
  • Edited 12:09pm Jan 31, 2011 11:56am | Edited 12:09pm
Quoting raczekfx
I want my ball back...

Let me see what can I do with the crystal ball mybe I can replicate it and will send you the duplicate

The oil is bugging me for some time, she is behaving like somthing big will come

Do you remember the war that began in 2003(invasion of Iraq) was also the start of the bull market in oil which has last till 2008 culminating with the big Oil Crash.

Recent event are just addon to oil price, so lets see how she will respond further up.

all the best!!

PS: My heart is already pumping at an alarmy speed, and my stomach ...., this is how I feel whenever I have much larger exposure than usual

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  • #379
  • Jan 31, 2011 12:07pm Jan 31, 2011 12:07pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unrest...027218866.html

Egypt is not an oil exporter, nor is its stock market a regional heavyweight. As the home of the Suez Canal and the nearby Sumed pipeline, however, it is one of a handful of spots classified as World Oil Transit Chokepoints by the Energy Department, and events there can have an outsize impact on global energy prices.
The 141-year-old canal is just 1,000 feet wide at its narrowest, and it cannot handle supertankers, forcing shippers to rely on the pipeline or smaller vessels to move the crude.
Roughly 2.9 millions barrels of oil a day, 2.6 percent of global production, passed through the canal and the pipeline in 2009, the Energy Department said.
As a percentage of world oil demand, that may not sound like much, said William H. Brown III, a former Wall Street energy analyst who consults for hedge funds and financial institutions.
“But prices are determined at the margin and that’s a lot of oil in markets these days,” said Mr. Brown, who estimates global spare production capacity at 2.5 million barrels, the bulk of it in Saudi Arabia.
While prices are set globally, the immediate impact of any interruption would be felt primarily in Europe, which relies heavily on jet fuel, heating oil and other distillates refined in the Middle East and shipped via the canal and pipeline. Israel is also a major importer of Egyptian natural gas under a pact that dates to the 1978 Camp David accords.
Any widening of the unrest beyond Egypt, meanwhile, could lead to a broader fallout for Asia and the rest of the world.
“Asian countries’ exports to Egypt account for less than 1 percent of total exports,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a research note. “The key risk to Asia — most notably to India — is if social unrest and economic disruptions in Tunisia and Egypt spread. The direct negative impact on Asian growth would be through weaker exports, but indirect effects through higher commodity prices on the terms of trade, inflation and growth should not be underestimated.”
  • #380
  • Jan 31, 2011 12:40pm Jan 31, 2011 12:40pm
I see there has been some discussion about oil recently...this quite pretty much sums up my view on the affect of a high oil price and why high oil price won't be sustainable over the medium-long term.

“A one-dollar, one-day increase in a barrel of oil takes $12 million out of the U.S. economy,” said Jason S. Grumet, president of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington research group. “If tensions in the Mideast cause oil prices to rise by $5 for even just three months, over $5 billion dollars will leave the U.S. economy. Obviously, this is not a strategy for creating new jobs.”
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