AUD/USD

Well done

short SL at BE, Double top off upper trendline with successive Pin Bars, could this move lower ???

I got tired of waiting to move lower. The aussie is in range, maybe I should have closed the whole position but I'm planning to leave it open for the weekend.

sell at 9981 ... still shame on you usd for this weakness.

go figure the market would pull back and hit my newly place SL before darting back down again. Well I am out for now. Will have to re-evaluate before Monday as to how to tackle a ranging pair on an NFP week

RT

My calculations via my Panasonic Scientific Calculator is coming out at 0.8773
Which is why i have a Level 4 target of 0.8600-0.8900

Just got out of another day trade at 0.9943 and its gone lower!

I think there is every possibility the pump & dumpers on here will lift this pair one more time to 0.9970 today...please pumpers
I want to short again at that level

Thankyou

I do not like to scalp. It is a hard way to make a living. But that is all this pair has been good for lately. We have been range trading for the last 2 weeks--- and that may continue for a while. Maybe a China rate increase can break us out to the downside. Right now we are in a tug of war between deteriorating Aussie fundamentals and a Huge intrest rate differential. And yes, I have done a little scalping the last few days. That is all that the market has been offering. Good trades to all...

Regards,

FX, it can only hold this level for so long!
Trust me, when the sugar hits the fan, and the genuine nobular traders realise the China affect on rates & banking reserves, flooding, economic damage, etc..............this will drip to 0.8600 PDQ!

Until then, collect the coins and keep smiling, its only money

Wow. This baby looks like it is setting up to explode on the daily.

Lookout shorts, daddy's coming for your stops at > 1.0000. lol

Triangle plays are so fun... always wait for a retest before taking your position, whether it goes short or long.

Back to the safety of the dollar.
Global turmoil in Tunisia and now Egypt...then Yemen...maybe Saudi Arabia!!
Target 0.8600-0.8900



Egypt riots knocks Wall St to biggest drop in 6 months
Fri Jan 28, 2011

Stocks suffered their biggest one-day loss in nearly six months on Friday as anti-government rioting in Egypt prompted investors to flee to less risky assets to ride out the turmoil.

Increased instability in the Middle East drove up the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, the stock market's fear gauge, as investors scrambled for protective positions.

"The market hates uncertainties, especially geopolitical ones, and based on how that shapes up throughout the weekend (in Egypt), next week's trading will be impacted," said Thomas Nyheim, portfolio manager for Christiana Bank & Trust Co in Greenville, Delaware.

Trading volume was the highest of the year at 9.97 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, compared to last year's estimated daily average of 8.47 billion shares.

The market drop ended the Dow's eight-week winning streak and pushed the S&P 500 below its 14-day moving average for the first time in two months.

Developments in the Middle East could be a trigger for investors to sell at a time when many expected a correction after a market rally of about 18 percent since September.

"I think the next two to three weeks, the crisis in Egypt and potentially across the Middle East, might be an excuse for a big selloff of 5 to 10 percent," said Keith Wirtz, president and chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Global unrest has no place for risk on play!
Level 4 target has dropped 400 pips to 0.8500 and could hit 0.8000!



Dollar Gains In Safe Haven Bid From Egypt Unrest
JANUARY 28, 2011

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar and other safe-haven currencies gained on Friday as investors sought refuge from the turmoil in the Middle East, where Egyptian protesters faced off against the police and army in violent clashes.

The euro fell broadly as traders worried the single currency was at further risk as the political unrest in Egypt threatened to spread to neighboring Arab countries.

In addition to the Egyptian situation, the dollar could be gaining allure as a safe harbor for investors worried that the year's early gains in stocks and other riskier asset markets could be reversed quickly.

"With many secretly eying a retracement in the equity market, it makes sense to be holding dollars as a potential safety play," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Conn.

Volatile markets showed investors were worried the political crisis could spread in the Middle East.

"The Middle East story has grabbed people," said Tom Tucci, head of government bond trading at RBC Capital Markets in New York. The worry is that tensions "are going to spread and that there are going to be more uprisings and issues in the Middle East."

Street protests were the news of the day in Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen. Egyptian crowds shouted slogans criticizing the government of longstanding President Hosni Mubarak amid the country's most widespread protests in many years. Amid reports the Egyptian government had cut access to the Internet, social-networking sites, and mobile-phone networks, the U.S. came out in favor of the protests, calling them democracy in action.

Analysts are watching what happens in Egypt, an important U.S. ally in the Middle East. If the Egyptian regime falls, governments in nearby Arab countries living under tight political controls, like Yemen, Syria, Algeria, and Libya, "will almost certainly follow," said Hakim Darbouche, a North Africa expert at Oxford University who studies the region for research firm Oxford Analytica. "That would definitely be a game changer," he said, cautioning that Egypt's army may be unlikely to relinquish its political and economic stake in the country's current system.

Earlier, the dollar also gained on a report showing U.S. gross domestic product grew 3.2% for the fourth quarter of 2010, giving investors more confidence that the world's largest economy is recovering.

As long as this world needs commodity’s (resources) the AUD will be in demand, that simple (resource prices and demand high = AUD high).



Secondary inflation is relatively high which keeps interest high and it pays to deposit money into the Australian Banks or to be long on Spot FX.

Good luck.

Cheers

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/66163222/

BIG PLAYER SAYS IT ALL!

"The currency may also be supported as Royal Bank of Scotland forecast Australia’s central bank will raise interest rates 1 percentage point in 2011"

Australian Dollar Down Late As Economic Outlook Dims On Flood Toll

-The Australian dollar was weaker Friday as economists continued to downplay the risk of a near-term interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia amid more dire forecasts of pain for the commodity-based economy following recent floods in Queensland state.

Australia's Treasurer Wayne Swan said the floods will shave half a percentage point from economic growth in the 2010-11 financial year, while inflation will rise. Some economists said the estimates are conservative, with a pronounced soft patch for economic activity now unavoidable in the first half of the year.

The worst of the economic impact will be concentrated on the March quarter as several billion dollars worth of lost coal production shaves around 15 million tons from expected coal exports, Swan said in a Brisbane speech. Queensland accounts for around 19% of Australia's national output and is also a major agricultural food bowl.

At 0500 GMT, the Australian dollar changed hands at US$0.9889 from US$0.9957 late Thursday. Against the Japanese yen, the unit traded at Y81.76 from Y81.86.

Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC and a former senior manager at the RBA until late last year, said the floods are fueling huge uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and rates will be left on hold until the second quarter of 2011 at least.

The RBA's policy-making board meets Tuesday, with economists anticipating the official cash rate target to be left on hold at 4.75%. Late Friday, 30-interbank futures markets were suggesting the next hike in rates may not come until 2012.

Grant Turley, the head of currency strategy at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said the Australian dollar will struggle to gain a foothold above parity against the U.S. dollar, adding that some of the resistance is related to concerns about building inflation pressures in Asia.

Higher inflation in China would likely trigger more efforts to slow the Asian giant, cutting demand for Australian resources exports.

Australian Dollar Stability Won’t Hold Through A Risk Rout
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

http://twurl.nl/lfsm1j

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1281

It just screams to me Volitile Breakout entry and I have had it on my charts for a while. I have trade the bounces (next candles) and taken my BE hits but once it closes outside of this penant we should find some true direction. TA traders bread and butter hopefully lol

RT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Lq7QzLdkSc

article about floods and bank mortgage writedowns; http://www.smh.com.au/business/banks...128-1a8hp.html

weather map cyclone http://http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

WA has heavy rain as well so we will see what that does to wheat crops.

i expect rates will be on hold and a subsequent selloff on tuesday.