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AUD/USD

  • #27,661
  • Jan 27, 2011 6:31am Jan 27, 2011 6:31am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Pathetic US data released... Now, what?
Seems there are a lot of reasons for the Aussie to drop..... cooling enconomy, flood problems, china rates, etc. Still one BIG reason to go north... 4.25% intrest rate! I think it is going to take another big news item to really get this train moving south.... like a .5 rate increase from china. Otherwise, we will probably range trade/slow grind north. Until something happens to change the outlook for A/U rate differntials, a big drop is unlikley.

Regards,
  • #27,662
  • Jan 27, 2011 6:46am Jan 27, 2011 6:46am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Pathetic US data released... Now, what?
You want to make money? Take care about technical analysis. Your charts are your friends. Fundamental is very difficult to follow and you can not have the same informations and analysis that gouvernments, banks and hedge funds have. When people estimated that it should go north, it goes south and vice versa. Big players don't analyse datas at the same way of other people. If you want to be a friend of big players, let your chart be your friend. It tells you what your big friends see and why they don't take the road that everybody preparing to take.

Enjoy your trades.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,663
  • Jan 27, 2011 7:54am Jan 27, 2011 7:54am
Quoting FX-Petra
Seems there are a lot of reasons for the Aussie to drop..... cooling enconomy, flood problems, china rates, etc. Still one BIG reason to go north... 4.25% intrest rate! I think it is going to take another big news item to really get this train moving south.... like a .5 rate increase from china. Otherwise, we will probably range trade/slow grind north. Until something happens to change the outlook for A/U rate differntials, a big drop is unlikley.

Regards,
DX isn't helping anything right now either.
  • #27,664
  • Jan 27, 2011 1:04pm Jan 27, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting Alki
Expecting next target for Aussie at 1.0200 level (200 pips above parity) before short to 0.9830 level then maybe to the famous Ely 0.8900 target. Actually, i don't see any short at all expect obvious small retrace. Timing indicating february 1st -2nd, maybe before. I could be wrong because nothing is sure in trading, but i put already my plan to execution according to this calculation. I wait and see if wrong or right. From now money management takes control of the trades.

Enjoy your trades.
From date of that post and up to now, nothing special happened for Aussie, except as expected small retrace. Waiting for Aussie what will do from tomorrow morning EST and if nothing special, next week would be an active one (including probable gap).

Nothing sure in trading. Enjoy yours.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,665
  • Jan 27, 2011 3:04pm Jan 27, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting Alki
From date of that post and up to now, nothing special happened for Aussie, except as expected small retrace. Waiting for Aussie what will do from tomorrow morning EST and if nothing special, next week would be an active one (including probable gap).

Nothing sure in trading. Enjoy yours.
There is NFP and unemploy next week so as usual the start of the week might be a tedious grind before the catalyst of change occurs on Friday accompanied with the fireworks and higher spread costs. I am still holding my shorts which are taking there time to mature
  • #27,666
  • Jan 27, 2011 4:12pm Jan 27, 2011 4:12pm
bought @ 0.99060 stops @ 0.98711
  • #27,667
  • Jan 27, 2011 5:56pm Jan 27, 2011 5:56pm
Quoting redsword11
bought @ 0.99060 stops @ 0.98711
not good days for one to trade. too choppy and directionless. hope it will go north though. despite the fact that on fridays it doesn't make large movement to the upside.
  • #27,668
  • Jan 27, 2011 9:02pm Jan 27, 2011 9:02pm
once aud touch 0.9820 then break 0.9760..i could say bye2 bull for at least tillend Q1....i am for that moment....
today and next week Monday

no parity will be tested n last few day twice already go which already told us no more after this....

0.99850 will be the max atm....while 0.985-0.982 will be the number to play today...

as usual i always wrong then trade safe and enjoy ur weekend..

g
  • #27,669
  • Jan 27, 2011 9:54pm Jan 27, 2011 9:54pm
AUD/USD fell sharply on the back of weaker US equity markets and large falls in commodities. The pair opened the session near 0.9950 with inter bank trad-ers targeting stops below the 0.9930 up-ward trend line during the European session but failed to cleanly break the level. The US market was able to easily take out the level as the weak earnings reports drove the equity markets lower and the old AUD/Equity market link kicked in.
We are now firmly bearish the AUD as the start of the bailout of long commod-ities position will continue to weigh heavily on commodity currencies and we are now targeting 0.9550 in the coming week. New sellers may get the chance to sell towards 0.9920/35 with only a break above parity likely to change our view.
  • #27,670
  • Jan 27, 2011 11:20pm Jan 27, 2011 11:20pm
Quoting ely
AUD/USD fell sharply on the back of weaker US equity markets and large falls in commodities. The pair opened the session near 0.9950 with inter bank trad-ers targeting stops below the 0.9930 up-ward trend line during the European session but failed to cleanly break the level. The US market was able to easily take out the level as the weak earnings reports drove the equity markets lower and the old AUD/Equity market link kicked in.
We are now firmly bearish the AUD as the start of the bailout of long commod-ities position will continue to weigh heavily...
Let fxstreet target whatever they want. I remember when EUR/USD falls below 1.1900, they had target 1.1600 (other banks also said this) but we never touched that level. Believe only what you see on your chart. Don't follow anyone, even you know why. Follow only your calculations.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,671
  • Jan 27, 2011 11:40pm Jan 27, 2011 11:40pm
As I got out on my lame accidentally large USDJPY positions, I can go back to AUDUSD (or USDCAD whichever comes first)...

Im still waiting for a good price to SHORT this baby - somewhere near or above parity BEFORE FEB 2 2011!
  • #27,672
  • Jan 28, 2011 1:37am Jan 28, 2011 1:37am
Quoting redsword11
bought @ 0.99060 stops @ 0.98711

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 77 KB



resolved north from demand zone
  • #27,673
  • Jan 28, 2011 1:53am Jan 28, 2011 1:53am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd h1.gif Size: 132 KB
one secret in the forex. im belive.
  • #27,674
  • Jan 28, 2011 2:09am Jan 28, 2011 2:09am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


resolved north from demand zone

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #27,675
  • Edited 3:24am Jan 28, 2011 2:17am | Edited 3:24am
Quick short 0.9931, SL 0.9945.

Edit: Stopped out.
  • #27,676
  • Jan 28, 2011 3:35am Jan 28, 2011 3:35am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 65 KB



as suggested by bear pole and rising flag
  • #27,677
  • Jan 28, 2011 3:46am Jan 28, 2011 3:46am
Witching time is looming! Place your Bets!
Im placing a Limit Sell @ 0.9990
  • #27,678
  • Jan 28, 2011 4:30am Jan 28, 2011 4:30am
Painful pair at the moment. Well I think that is 4 positions this week, 1 long and 3 short and the only positive was the long for about 50ish pips, the 3 shorts all BE which I consider a win really, the opportunity was there to take some profit but felt that the downside was good. Current candles suggest that above parity will be the flavour however I couldnt help myself. Quick runs tend to have small run back so I am short @9980 targetting about 30-40 pips. SL will be at BE as soon as 15 pips is up otherwise I will finish this week with a total gain of about .5% for this pair. Some weeks are just tough
  • #27,679
  • Jan 28, 2011 5:33am Jan 28, 2011 5:33am
Quoting Alki
Expecting next target for Aussie at 1.0200 level (200 pips above parity) before short to 0.9830 level then maybe to the famous Ely 0.8900 target. Actually, i don't see any short at all expect obvious small retrace. Timing indicating february 1st -2nd, maybe before. I could be wrong because nothing is sure in trading, but i put already my plan to execution according to this calculation. I wait and see if wrong or right. From now money management takes control of the trades.

Enjoy your trades.
Quoting Alki
From date of that post and up to now, nothing special happened for Aussie, except as expected small retrace. Waiting for Aussie what will do from tomorrow morning EST and if nothing special, next week would be an active one (including probable gap).

Nothing sure in trading. Enjoy yours.
I'll see what happen from today 11h00 EST. I'll see if my whole analyze is correct or not. Up to now, price is correct and timing does so.

If the 1.0200 level is touched at indicated time, it needs confirmation for falling. Its behavior when rising will say many things, otherwise 1.0350 could aspirate aussie easily. 1.0200 level is in three prices: 1.0220, 1.0185 and 1.0195.

Falling means three resistance: parity itself, 0.9835 and 0.9540.

Nothing is sure in trading. W. D. GANN spoke many times about the unexpected. The unexpected is the thing that every trader hate. That's why i'm saying always Nothing is sure in trading.

Enjoy your trades because one of the best jobs in the world is: Trader.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,680
  • Jan 28, 2011 6:07am Jan 28, 2011 6:07am
Quoting kandarv
Gold didn't react much, so I'm long @0.9904 [email protected] [email protected].
Close half position +60 @0.9966, moved SL@BE
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