james16 Chart Thread

I'm not being critical, just trying to fine tune my PPZ work ...We know these are zones.....but don't you think the 1.45(red boxes) is one PPZ and the other place to watch prior to this area is the 1.3900 (yellow boxes)area. I see that consolidation box above 1.4-1.45 area is that why it is more important to watch there?

As always thanks,

Bill

P.S. Still shoveling/plowing

wow look at the gold!!!
Mike are you still holding?

Hey Adi

Nope I got nicked out yesterday unfortunately. Too bad that thing is really rocking now.

Best
Mike

Oh but anyway that was one fantastic trade imho!

Hello everybody, it is my third year following this thread and I'm writing to all you J16 followers being desperate in need of help regarding my academic research within the field technical analysis. I wrote to Mike regarding some help and pointers and he is willing to help me with give his input regarding creating a model which will work as a benchmark to the individual trader. I will show you guys what I explained to Mike in my private message to him and when you have read this please write to me in a private message with a simple "Yes or No" regarding if you are willing to contribute to this research by giving your input on what YOU put weight on in your technical price analysis.

The private message:

Dear Mike, I contacted you quite a while ago regarding my bachelor thesis on Technical Price Analysis.
I have came up with a quite good idea I think of how to analyze the data I will collect on trading PA. I want to develop a model that helps the individual trader to see whether it is a good trade or not, the idea is going to be that the trader will be able to use the model as a benchmark to himself.

So to the model itself... I want to create a function that is dependent on several other variables (variables that we J16 followers use in our analysis). Example on variables; Confluence with fibs, S/R, what kind of bar, the "degree" of the bar (A+ or not), confluence with BRN etc etc.

The idea is to give weight to each variable in the model so suppose we have:

Price analysis is a function of ( FIB, S/R, TYPE OF BAR etc etc) I want to be able to put a number on each variable and multiply it by a variable that can assume at least two numbers.. I know this sound a bit weird and maybe even complicated but I will try my best to explain as easy as possible.

For simplicity assume that price analysis is dependent on x = fibo-lvl and big round number. And the price action bar itself could be assumed to be a constant so if we have a pinbar let us assume it is the value 0.3 (i.e. the pinbar is assumed to weigh 30% of the analysis).

the model could be assumed to look a bit like this:

PA = 0.3 + β1*X1 + β2*X2

0.3 = The constant pinbar
β1 = fib confluence
β2 = Confluence with BRN

X1 and X2 are "Yes and No" values, so in the process of analyzing let us say we ask ourselfes the question "Do we have fib confluence?" If Yes, we multiply β1 by 1, if no we multiply by 0. In the end the function will give us a percentage number that will help us to keep objectivity in our minds and help us erase emotions (maybe) and we can compare our first thought about the trade with the number given by the model. In the end we will together hopefully after "optimizing the model" say if the model gives us the objective number 70% we will be willing to take the trade etc etc. Since some bars can be played as continuation bars I will try to tweak a very similar model for just continuation bars (since we have to exclude the swing high/low idea).

After the model is created I will go back 10 years on a couple of FX pairs and use the model to decide whether I should take the trade (initially) or not. I will record every pip made, every pip risk and pip loss in an excel sheet ofcourse. If the model tells me yes enter the market I will enter the market and continue to analyze bar after bar with this "benchmark model" and see whether PA could be profitable by taking help of the model! Another problem to the model will be exits, which can be eliminated with the beauty of 2 bar trail stoploss or something similar.

What do you think about this approach? I truly do understand it is a VERY difficult task to weigh each variable in the "most optimal way" but I was thinking of using the senior guys expertise here on FF and ask everybody that is willing to help to weigh all the variables (that will be included in the model in the future) how much % weight they would give each variable and then take the average of the answers.

The things written below is something I will do by myself, I choose to show it to you guys as it might be interesting for you and it has been a subject discussed on this thread a while ago. But only need help with giving weight to each parameter in the example of the model explained above
In addition of this analysis I want to work on the market assymmetric problem which we actually maybe can proof by deriving it through a large sample size and PA.

Example) It's thursday night... we are looking at daily chart N.Y. close. The price of EURUSD has been clearly rejecting the 1.3000 area and a bearish pinbar has formed. The day after NFP data is released and it is shown that it is better then the expectations of the analysts.
Do you think this type of data collection approach is a good idea to try to proof that there is people in the market that has more information than others thus assymmetrical information problem occurs?


Guys guys guys, this is just a brief explanation at the brainstorming stage. I will write an document and explain in detail how the model will look like and which variables that will be included and which variable you should weigh according to what is important for YOU in your analysis.

I truly am really grateful for all relevant input you can give even at this stage.

Regards, Shuan Salim.

Hey Bill

You could say that. I just like to simplify it even more and show it as one zone(see chart). Then I like to focus in both on what is more important shorter term(BRN vs a large round number(1.39). But ultimately it is the story that evolves around these "zones". So this is only one piece of an "area" to watch

Best
Mike

Totally agree SR2....Even my former Japanese broker only every charged be 2 pips for this pair.



Problem is, I am in Japan and funded this small live account $3,100 US with paypal, in Japanese Yen.
That was when the Yen was like 90 something, if I take out the money, it is going to get put back into Yen and then back in my Japanese bank account, I will pay exchange rates again and it will make this a crazy thing to do.

If I could just transfer the money via paypal to another broker that would be cool.


wow they are up to 6 pips spread right now on UJ.....!!!!

That is intriguing. I think everyone needs to find their own niche within J16 if they want to succeed. I personally have made those strides by combining thoughts from many people who use price action. In the last month or so, I have spotted a lot of S/R, P/A patterns that have executed quite well. The thing is, I have not had the chart time yet to really "freestyle" the markets (IE, be in tune with the markets, as we see folks like Mike seem to do quite well with).

Feels nice to see long term PA, then find a solid 25 pip stop entry and massive R/R making the losing trades that much easier. Granted I've had an increase in B/E trades, but I have also reduced the amount of time I am sitting in a trade stuck in drawdown as well.

I think it just fits the whole MOMENTUM idea that is behind all PA hypothesis.

Maybe in a year I will be "IN TUNE" and not just finding s/r and p/a...

more chart time.

EDIT: a lot of this has to do with recognizing the market opens around the world.

I understand your frustration. I am hoping to make a living out of this someday too. Unfortunately, its not been that easy for me either.

Don't count breakevens as a trade then. As long as you trade with the same risk every time, I don't see how you can't make money with a 90% win rate at the end of the year.

For example: say you take on average 5 trades a month, thats 60 trades a year. You have a 90% win rate, 54 wins and 6 losses. Each win you gain a modest .5% and each loss you take a full bar of your risk at 2%. At the end of the year you will still have a 15% gain. Yes that is not much but at least its not a negative.

Once you gain confidence in your method, get good at recognizing your target, and can identify the A+ setups the rest will come easy. Yes money management is crucial to your success. But when your first starting out make sure your MM focus is on capital preservation.

Just my 2 cents.

Good to hear Ghous, I was in x2 Bollywood movies myself!

1) Chocolate: Deep Dark Secrets
2) Maine Gandhi Ko Nahin Mara

Still haven't watched them, it's been a good few years (2005).

Hey Pb,

With PayPal you can have money in different currencies without having to exchange them to your countries currency.
Send an email to PayPal asking them how to set an account in $, then just ask your broker to transfer the money in dollars to your PayPal account, then once the money arrives just transfer it to the new broker via PayPal.

Hope it helps.

Os.

Thanks OS....That is a great idea.

I was not aware of the possibility of doing that.

Many thanks.

You are a life saver.

Anyone remember this demo I posted as soon as I took it?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post4317959



Well, it looks like I had the right idea, just the wrong timing/technique.

I did get stopped out, but looking now at the weekly chart, the low of that weekly pin never broke, and price went quickly to the targets after breaking that 2 week high level.

Not good...

maybe one of the people on this thread can help you out:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=51065

edit: just noticed osman replied with something useful

I actually used a good Japanese broker previously.
They had fixed spreads MT4 and were reasonable until they changed their chart time to Japan standard time, then I could not find many good PA setups.

That is why, I moved my account to FXDD.

Just talked to FXDD about these ridiculous spreads on UJ.
They claimed it is due to current market conditions and will brought back down in an hour or so. They also asked me to tell them what pairs I am interested in trading and they will tell me the best time of day to trade them. I told them, I was not interested in a deal like that.
They started apologizing and giving me the " We value your business, please don't move to another broker because of this" rubbish.

Perhaps, they have had a lot of people complaining about this, I say this as, it took them nearly 5 mins to answer the chat.

What a joke, "tell us what pairs you want to trade and we will tell you the best time to trade them".

Well, I can now just forget PA and feel secure knowing I can just make random trades based on the time of day, they tell me.

Glad to know I am talking to a bollywood actor here.

I have not heard about the first film but I think I did see the 2nd movie.



What is your character in the movie - 'Maine Gandhi Ko Nahin Mara' ?

Hmm, maybe this abnormal spread on UJ has been going on across the board. I just installed an IBFX demo and the spread is currently higher than FXDD.

I sure do remember Dan . . .its why we wait for the break . remember . .


What's also cool is looking on the Daily, at that Weekly PPZ level or left eye of the Weekly PB. . 85.60ish.

Notice how we couldn't get a close below it on the Daily . . .pretty cool . .wouldn't you say?

Its 1 pip on Oanda - MT4(Demo).

Is this a good setup? VBRN, large BEOB. FTA is white line but a better target looks like the .9800 area. Is there too much traffic here?