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  • #3,161
  • Jan 20, 2011 3:56pm Jan 20, 2011 3:56pm
There were lots of opportunities today, but I'm taking things easy and just getting a feel for the market again this week before ramping up my aggression next week...but there was a lot of money that could have been made today.

I took 3 trades today:

1. GU - touch trade (RN, fibs, TL, PPZ) @1.5995, SL 1.6045.

Exited at daily PPZ @ 1.5885 +2.20R

2. GU - Inside Bar gave a further opportunitiy, entry @ 1.5977, SL @ 1.6015, exit at daily PPZ 1.5838 - was obvious price would bounce here as YM, oil and gold were all at support levels and its was in the profit taking part of the day.

+3.66R

3. GJ - 4HR BUOB entry @ 131.58, [email protected], exit @ 131.96 +0.39R

Total + 6.25R

There were defintley some false signals this moring with the $HR BUOB on GU and EU for example, but with how proce moved yesterday I was pretty confient that rsik aversion woud continue today. I missed the easiest trade last night which was the NU daily pin (turneed my bakc for 5mins on something esle and it had gone!) ...it was also pretty clear that gold and oil were gonna fall what with the China data meaning chances of further monetary tightening is high which is bearish for commodities and thus why AU andn NU fell so much today.
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  • #3,162
  • Jan 20, 2011 4:16pm Jan 20, 2011 4:16pm
PPZ+PB+very round number
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  • #3,163
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:45am Jan 21, 2011 4:45am
Quoting makron
Touch trade
Can you see why I would have chosen to short GCAD touch trade than EAUD? EUR has been strong across the board for couple weeks now where as GBP has been weaker and was showing signs of considerable more weakness than EUR.
  • #3,164
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:50am Jan 21, 2011 4:50am
Quoting makron
PPZ+PB+very round number
Not one for me...not good enough technical setup for me, pin close wasnt good enough and FTA is too close plus I ask mysefl what is going to be the most likely driver for UCAD to go down...CAD strength or USD weakness...if the last 2 weeks are anything to go by then USD weakness is more likely to be the biggest driver and thus one the basis CAD has been weakest of the majors my money would be better placed going long EU for example.

CAD data later could change all that, but going on last 2 weeks and current commodity price action (CAD is a commodity currency) I would prefer to look for long UCAD setups than short and if going short USD I'd rather go long EU than short UCAD...

Just the way I look at things which might be too analytical for some and way beyond keeping it simple and looking at the technical PA on UCAD alone...finding what works for you is key.
  • #3,165
  • Jan 23, 2011 10:24am Jan 23, 2011 10:24am
7 winners (out of 8 trades) this week and 8.48R gained. Lots of easy setups this week and could have made over 20R easily but was taking it easy. I feel we are on the verge of some big moves in FX, commodtiies and Equities where there will be some opportunities for big money to be made...I'm watching price action across the asset classes closely for any signs.

Back to trading normally next week as have been mostly watching and being very picky last week.
  • #3,166
  • Jan 24, 2011 2:07pm Jan 24, 2011 2:07pm
Only 1 closed trade today and it was a bit annoying as it was a rushed trade in terms of decision making and I got in too early and SL was too tight so got stopped out for -1R. It was on AU a touch / postion trade @ 0.9980 SL @ 1.0020 (so I got stopped out by 1.4 pips!).

A few open trades...Silver being the best one - 1HR Pa after breakout and retrace...no brainer setup really and I'm pretty bearish on commodities at the moment so this was an A+ trade setup for me.
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  • #3,167
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:08pm Jan 24, 2011 4:08pm
Hello LJ, just a question: what do you think about the following touch setup, is the daily pivot enough important to keep the trade matching the confluences or should you be scared because of the big bearish candle? Thank you for everything and good night
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  • #3,168
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:15pm Jan 24, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting ale73a
Hello LJ, just a question: what do you think about the following touch setup, is the daily pivot enough important to keep the trade matching the confluences or should you be scared because of the big bearish candle? Thank you for everything and good night
My thoughts can be summarised by this picture

PS: Big bearish candles don't scare me! Very fast impulsive moves (often casued by news) are when I stay away.
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  • #3,169
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:18pm Jan 24, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting lovejoy80
My thoughts can be summarised by this picture

PS: Big bearish candles don't scare me! Very fast impulsive moves (often casued by news) are when I stat away.
  • #3,170
  • Jan 25, 2011 2:13am Jan 25, 2011 2:13am
Quoting squeezy
arghhhhh! thats a sweet gj entry u got there LJ.... nice
stalking & stalking and didnt get the top ..... still looking for an entry though,need to see 129.40ish atleast
gaud is one of my gbp shorts, sl @ BE....waiting for break of 1.59
1.59 was where price bounced as expected, so BE on gaud but still looking for shorts...
gnzd in play, almost at final tp
gchf same thing, about to hit tp
watching gj, gu, gcad for short oppurtunities
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #3,171
  • Jan 25, 2011 2:33am Jan 25, 2011 2:33am
Quoting squeezy
1.59 was where price bounced as expected, so BE on gaud but still looking for shorts...
gnzd in play, almost at final tp
gchf same thing, about to hit tp
watching gj, gu, gcad for short oppurtunities
I'm guessing you're bearish GBP then lol

How come you're charts are blank i.e. no S/R levels etc?
  • #3,172
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:24am Jan 25, 2011 3:24am
Quoting lovejoy80
I'm guessing you're bearish GBP then lol

How come you're charts are blank i.e. no S/R levels etc?
lol ..... yes indeed bearish atleast to some extent
i mainly work with exits ....... i.e. where am i going to exit whenever i enter.
whenever price gets to s/r level , it can either break or bounce (ok, attimes it consolidates but its due to indecision before breaking or bouncing)
from my charts , ull notice tthose r levels that have been broken, one cld either wait for price to retest those levels or try and enter to those levels. i enter to those levels as well as play the pullbacks ..... i like it when price runs & runs & runs away from a level fooling many but someone once told me that price MUST(in capital & bold) visit that level no matter how long.... i then thought further from backtesting ofcourse, when price finally reaches that level will that level hold even though theres bliv to be orderflow sitting there but how much orders are remaining there.
anyways, let me cut my answer short & simply i mostly use 1-3 s/r levels with trendlines.(depending on scenario)
cheers
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #3,173
  • Jan 25, 2011 4:48am Jan 25, 2011 4:48am
so from what understand u belive that when a ppz is broken price Must comeback to retest it. But wether the price bounces on ppz and makes pullback scenario or it breaks through it we cant know that.

and u are trading in direction of that broken ppz by ur believe that price must do a retest of that roken ppz. Simply saying ur an exits trader.

sounds fair enough but how do handle the draw downs? how do you set a price to give up the setup cuase it may take price days or even months to comeback to that broken ppz? how much u risk on a setup and how do u manage ur RR? cuase price may go away from that ppz for 1000 pips before coming back towards it and it could sweep ur account in just one trade.

Oops sorry for that many ?'s.
Thanks.
  • #3,174
  • Jan 25, 2011 5:26am Jan 25, 2011 5:26am
if you allow me to chime in, don't be blind bc of today movement, they may lost some ground but they will recover what they lost today, when would happen that I don't know, but in the medium term and long term gbp is going to rise, call me at the end of the year today price it will seem cheap compare with what will come.

just to make a disclaimer: don't trust my words make your own judgements, I may be all wrong.

But in the meanwhile I'm going with the flow

all the best!

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  • #3,175
  • Jan 25, 2011 5:55am Jan 25, 2011 5:55am
Quoting triger88990
if you allow me to chime in, don't be blind bc of today movement, they may lost some ground but they will recover what they lost today, when would happen that I don't know, but in the medium term and long term gbp is going to rise, call me at the end of the year today price it will seem cheap compare with what will come.

just to make a disclaimer: don't trust my words make your own judgements, I may be all wrong.

But in the meanwhile I'm going with the flow

all the best!

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Care to expand on why you think this will happen...
  • #3,176
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:41am Jan 25, 2011 7:41am
Quoting squeezy
lol ..... yes indeed bearish atleast to some extent
i mainly work with exits ....... i.e. where am i going to exit whenever i enter.
whenever price gets to s/r level , it can either break or bounce (ok,...
So you're basically using the '1st time back' as a target rather than waiting for an entry there...you're trading to this area, rather where I would wait for price to get to that area etc.

I can see where you were targeting on GNZD and GCHF and why but how do you decide on your entries, as Nasir said you have the danger if your entries are wrong that you could suffer very large drawdown before that area you are targeting gets hit, so surely entries are still important otherwise it could take days, weeks, months for that target area to get hit?

Do you take a loss if your price goes too far away from your entry for example and how do you decide on risk per entry (as you presumably use no SL?).
  • #3,177
  • Jan 25, 2011 8:16am Jan 25, 2011 8:16am
Quoting lovejoy80
Care to expand on why you think this will happen...
I think I'm trying to be a smart ass here trying to feed my ego

now on a serious note fundamentally speaking my bias are long, for me the price is still kept at an artificial low compare to it's true value.

You can find more answers if you look into the Dow Theory, don't forget that market always move in cycles. It's just the way I see things developing, but bear in mind that my bias could change if she dictate so.

hope it helps

al the best!!
  • #3,178
  • Jan 25, 2011 8:31am Jan 25, 2011 8:31am
Quoting triger88990
I think I'm trying to be a smart ass here trying to feed my ego

now on a serious note fundamentally speaking my bias are long, for me the price is still kept at an artificial low compare to it's true value.

You can find more answers if you look into the Dow Theory, don't forget that market always move in cycles. It's just the way I see things developing, but bear in mind that my bias could change if she dictate so.

hope it helps

al the best!!
lol.

Ah ok, I'm not familiar with Dow Theory nor am I a fundies trader or a long term trader, but living in the UK, from a fundies perspective the risk of a double dip recession is very real. Of course it's all relative to what will happen with other economies, but GBP sure won't have an easy ride over the next 6months IMO.

With your trades above...I know why I would potentially enter the same trades, but the fact you have nothing on your chart apart from an MA suggests you've changed your trading style and the entries are for different reasons?
  • #3,179
  • Jan 25, 2011 9:02am Jan 25, 2011 9:02am
Quoting lovejoy80
lol.

Ah ok, I'm not familiar with Dow Theory nor am I a fundies trader or a long term trader, but living in the UK, from a fundies perspective the risk of a double dip recession is very real. Of course it's all relative to what will happen with other economies, but GBP sure won't have an easy ride over the next 6months IMO.

With your trades above...I know why I would potentially enter the same trades, but the fact you have nothing on your chart apart from an MA suggests you've changed your trading style and the entries are for different reasons?...
Yes my style have suffered some adjustments over time.

I'm in opinion that everyone who trade based on price should get ripped off of all the lines upon his chart, they lead to blindness, your perception over market will be distorted by those lines.

And the ema's are there just because I developed some sort of feeling regarding them, but do not have any influence in decision making process.

all the best!
  • #3,180
  • Jan 25, 2011 9:09am Jan 25, 2011 9:09am
Quoting triger88990
Yes my style have suffered some adjustments over time.

I'm in opinion that everyone who trade based on price should get ripped off of all the lines upon his chart, they lead to blindness, your perception over market will be distorted by those lines.

And the ema's are there just because I developed some sort of feeling regarding them, but do not have any influence in decision making process.

all the best!

One of the most important things in tradnig is finding a method / system that suits your own personaility and something you feel comfortable with, the day you stop jumping from method to method you would have overcome a significant hurdle (not referring to you, just generally) IMO.

Personally, I find the lines work for me...well my account says it does ... but I feel intrigued enough to check out some of the stuff I can see you've been looking at...a trader's learning never stops after all.
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