My path to financial freedom | Page 158 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

My path to financial freedom 17 replies

Singapore trader's journal (the road to financial freedom) 8 replies

My Path To Financial Freedom 221 replies

Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom......... 10 replies

Book Wanted - Day Trading To Financial Freedom 0 replies

Attachments: My path to financial freedom
Exit Attachments

My path to financial freedom

  • #3,141
  • Jan 18, 2011 9:33am Jan 18, 2011 9:33am
Personally I'm only looking to go long JPY pairs...they 'look and 'feel' very bullish to me...though JPY pairs are not my favourite pairs either at the moment...I'm more closely watching the USD pairs, and GBP, CAD, AUD crosses.

I don't really see much off interest in the markets at the moment it's more a case of wating for me for price to show it's hand on most of the pairs... had a quick scalp on UCAD earlier ... I meant to close 1/3 and leave 2/3 open with SL at BE but mucked it up and closed it all...oh well....should have just left it all open as was pretty obvious to me that as long as CAD didn't raise interest rates UCAD had a high chance of bouncing up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad1.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #3,142
  • Jan 18, 2011 9:43am Jan 18, 2011 9:43am
Quoting squeezy
hey guys, anyone watching gbp pairs ..... gj, gchf, gaud, cable and some others. something is telling me gbp is up to something.
just thinking out loud, i see big drops soon esp gj & gchf
how big?
like a drop below Dec.2010's lows?
if it doesnt drop, then i (actually) see a move towards 145 area & 163.
  • #3,143
  • Jan 18, 2011 10:01am Jan 18, 2011 10:01am
Quoting nasir.khan
Well I had the same idea about Gchf and GJ so really got busted on my GJ shorts.
.
im in gchf short and holding, the exit is more important to me cos i bliv price must visit that level before really flying ..... atleast it must pullback.
gj short order around 133, depending on how it moves there i might readjust...wld like for it to blast there actually.

Quoting supremeChaos
how big?
like a drop below Dec.2010's lows?
if it doesnt drop, then i (actually) see a move towards 145 area & 163.
not thinking that far (for now), more of 300-400 pips atleast.its made continuous bounces off 126ish wkly lows, might be about to break, might not.
need to be in to 129.6 from top.
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #3,144
  • Edited Jan 19, 2011 12:52am Jan 18, 2011 3:33pm | Edited Jan 19, 2011 12:52am
Only 1 trade for me today, the UCAD trade posted earlier.

Entry 0.9854, SL @ 0.9830 exit @ 0.9885 +1.29R

I had an order for a short on EU at the break of the 4HR BEOB but I'll likely pull it before I got to bed if not triggered.

I was close to shorting EU at the top of teh range as it's a well defined daily PPZ, USDX was at strong support too but until equity markets show signs of retracing I dont think USD will have any decent strength.

There is not much on my radar right now in terms of great locations on FX pairs, so it's pretty much watching price for some clues and/or waiting for some better defined setups.
  • #3,145
  • Jan 18, 2011 8:20pm Jan 18, 2011 8:20pm
what is the R in +xxxR?
  • #3,146
  • Jan 18, 2011 9:28pm Jan 18, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I don't really see much off interest in the markets at the moment it's more a case of wating for me for price to show it's hand on most of the pairs... had a quick scalp on UCAD earlier ... I meant to close 1/3 and leave 2/3 open with SL at BE but mucked it up and closed it all...oh well....should have just left it all open as was pretty obvious to me that as long as CAD didn't raise interest rates UCAD had a high chance of bouncing up.
so it is more of a fundamental trade?
  • #3,147
  • Jan 18, 2011 10:56pm Jan 18, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting leelar
what is the R in +xxxR?
I think there typo in LJs ucad trade and his entry was actually 98.54. Even the best traders have fat fingers!!!

However R just refers to the risk reward ratio. In the trade above entry @ 98.54 with a stop @98.30 mean 24pips are risked, exiting at 98.85 meant 31 pips gained 31/24=1.29R

This is a simple example with one entry/exit but most traders like to view trades in R terms.
  • #3,148
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:49am Jan 19, 2011 12:49am
Quoting leelar
so it is more of a fundamental trade?
No, defintely not a fundamental trade...it was based on teh fact CAD was very weak and UCAD wasn't falling that much compared to EU and GU which had risen quite a bit and thus wehn EU hit resistance, USDX hit support I was expecting some strength in USD which mean UCAD was likely to bounce the most as CAD had been the weakest of the majors....it's all about watching price and how it moves in relation to other currencies...over the years of constant price watching you pick up things like this.
  • #3,149
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:52am Jan 19, 2011 12:52am
Quoting zentrader108
I think there typo in LJs ucad trade and his entry was actually 98.54. Even the best traders have fat fingers!!!

However R just refers to the risk reward ratio. In the trade above entry @ 98.54 with a stop @98.30 mean 24pips are risked, exiting at 98.85 meant 31 pips gained 31/24=1.29R

This is a simple example with one entry/exit but most traders like to view trades in R terms.
Oh yeah doh it was 0.9854. Will correct now.

Yes I total up my results in terms of risk/reward ratio, it's a simple metric to measure performance and is important if you're trying to grow an account (and lie me you base your position on your risk and SL size compared to some use the same position size per trade regardsless of SL).
  • #3,150
  • Jan 19, 2011 1:49am Jan 19, 2011 1:49am
Quote
There is not much on my radar right now in terms of great locations on FX pairs, so it's pretty much watching price for some clues and/or waiting for some better defined setups.

No surprise to see the USD weaken overnight...especially as YM soared on stellar numbers from Apple and IBM last night.

As I said there needs to be a retracement in YM before USD will show any signifcant strength.

Price is overdue a correction on some FX pairs - in particular GU (9 dailys rises in a row)...if history is anything to go on. It's a typical thing to think when prices rises constantly that it is due to fall now...not sure why we think like that but for me it's natural to think the move is coming to an end and look for reversal signs than to get in on the trend...I tihnk this is rubbish for stocks as stocks can rise and rise or fall to zero but for FX it does hold some truth - that price doesnt rise for ever without a retracement....GU in particular has only ever once risen more than 9 straight days in a row. So I am actively looking at areas on USD pairs where price might react and reverse...I'm also looking at YM / EP and to a lesser extent USDX +Oil + UCHF for any clues.

Areas I'm watching are:
- GU 1.6080-1.6100 - though judging by other USD pairs it might now get there (AU. UC. EU are all at support / resistance areas at the moment)
- EU - it broke out of its range and is at 1.3500 resistance now
- AU - sameas EU it's a daily PPX right now
- UC daily BUOB formed yesterday and it's currently retraced back to support...how it behaves at this level is key.
- UCHF - daily pin formed at a range low...not a great pin and price is testing the support now a break lower is good for EU longs ...it should test 0.9500 if it does break.

So for me, either price will reverse at the current levels or it'll shoot up (so when GU reaches 1.6080-1.61 etc.) and then reverse causing essentially a fake breakout on the other USD pairs or price will just continue to march higher...I'm a pretty convservative trader (i.ew I don't blindly take trades based on hunches) and thus am waiting for a sign of the next move before committing fully..though I have taken a small position on one USD pair this morning.

I considered a touch trade on GJ yesterday at the meeting of the 2 TL's but passed...if this had been at 133.00 area I would have been all over it. JPY pairs are not my favourite to short though and I prefer trading them over either a very quck PA scalp or some longer term positioning.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #3,151
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:08am Jan 19, 2011 2:08am
Quoting lovejoy80
No surprise to see the USD weaken overnight...especially as YM soared on stellar numbers from Apple and IBM last night.

As I said there needs to be a retracement in YM before USD will show any signifcant strength.

Price is overdue a correction on some FX pairs...
arghhhhh! thats a sweet gj entry u got there LJ.... nice
stalking & stalking and didnt get the top ..... still looking for an entry though,need to see 129.40ish atleast
gaud is one of my gbp shorts, sl @ BE....waiting for break of 1.59
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 611.gif Size: 17 KB
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #3,152
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:14am Jan 19, 2011 2:14am
Quoting squeezy
arghhhhh! thats a sweet gj entry u got there LJ.... nice
stalking & stalking and didnt get the top ..... still looking for an entry though,need to see 129.40ish atleast
gaud is one of my gbp shorts, sl @ BE....waiting for break of 1.59
I didn't take it - I'm pretty picky compared to a lot of touch traders I think and two TL's meeting was not enough for me...if it had occurred at 133 then it would have been a no brainer.

I thought you might be short that pair after what you said about it yesterday...it was certainly showing signs of weakness but I didn't see a signal for myself (am even more picky on pairs I rarely trade like that).
  • #3,153
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:31am Jan 19, 2011 2:31am
Quoting lovejoy80
I didn't take it - I'm pretty picky compared to a lot of touch traders I think and two TL's meeting was not enough for me...if it had occurred at 133 then it would have been a no brainer.

I thought you might be short that pair after what you said about it yesterday...it was certainly showing signs of weakness but I didn't see a signal for myself (am even more picky on pairs I rarely trade like that).
Quoting squeezy
im in gchf short and holding, the exit is more important to me cos i bliv price must visit that level before really flying ..... atleast it must pullback.
gj short order around 133, depending on how it moves there i might readjust...wld like for it to blast there actually.
was also waiting for 133
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #3,154
  • Jan 20, 2011 2:16am Jan 20, 2011 2:16am
Similar pattern but will it follow through like it did on previous one?

BEOB not closed on FXPRO but i have one on IBFX.
.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #3,155
  • Jan 20, 2011 2:56am Jan 20, 2011 2:56am
Trades yesterday:

1. UC - daily buob...retrace to obvious support...entered long and took profit at the range top. Entry @ 0.9898, SL @ 0.9830 TP @ 0.9924 +0.38R

2. UC (not shown) - entered on break of the range, TP got hit this morning at 0.9980 PPZ. Entry 0.9942, SL: @ 0.9880 TP @ 0.9980 +0.61R

3. UCHF - wont go into reasoing for this one but it was tape reading essentialy but it didnt work out this time -1R

4. GCHF...confluenced area and then a pin like bar entry 1.5341, [email protected], closed half @ 1.5399 and half @1.5380 (was gonna leave half but decided it looked like it was gonna break down) +0.95R

Total +0.94R
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc3.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gchf.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #3,156
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:04am Jan 20, 2011 9:04am
Touch trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.gif Size: 82 KB
  • #3,157
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:21am Jan 20, 2011 9:21am
Quoting lovejoy80
Trades yesterday:

1. UC - daily buob...retrace to obvious support...entered long and took profit at the range top. Entry @ 0.9898, SL @ 0.9830 TP @ 0.9924 +0.38R

2. UC (not shown) - entered on break of the range, TP got hit this morning at 0.9980 PPZ. Entry 0.9942, SL: @ 0.9880 TP @ 0.9980 +0.61R

3. UCHF - wont go into reasoing for this one but it was tape reading essentialy but it didnt work out this time -1R

4. GCHF...confluenced area and then a pin like bar entry 1.5341, [email protected], closed half @ 1.5399 and half @1.5380 (was gonna leave...
You are fantastic! I have a question for you. I seem to always get knocked out when I trail my s/l. How do you manage profit, I read somewhere on here about FTA. I had a touch trade on cable out for +75 pips. But I see it has fallen 40 pips more than when I exited. When you trail your stop how much breathing room do you give?
  • #3,158
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:57am Jan 20, 2011 9:57am
Quoting makron
Touch trade
Good confluence. I would have prefered this one (did not take it this time as so amny others things to watch).

GU was the trade of the day for me today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gcad.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #3,159
  • Jan 20, 2011 10:01am Jan 20, 2011 10:01am
Quoting jj7000
You are fantastic! I have a question for you. I seem to always get knocked out when I trail my s/l. How do you manage profit, I read somewhere on here about FTA. I had a touch trade on cable out for +75 pips. But I see it has fallen 40 pips more than when I exited. When you trail your stop how much breathing room do you give?
I just use major S/R areas and look for signs that an S/R area will break or hold..you can never be certain but by watching price action and getting a feel for the market as a whole you can give yourself a good chance to know where to take profit or where to let it run. I probably took the same GU trades as you and am still in one and closed one earlier. But i was epecting some decent USD strength today .

Another thing to maybe do it take half profit at FTA and move SL to BE and see if you can catch a runner...I do this quite often when I'm not certain...banking some profit to reward myself for my correct analysis whilst keeping my options open just in case price runs away.
  • #3,160
  • Jan 20, 2011 10:07am Jan 20, 2011 10:07am
Quoting lovejoy80
I just use major S/R areas and look for signs that an S/R area will break or hold..you can never be certain but by watching price action and getting a feel for the market as a whole you can give yourself a good chance to know where to take profit or where to let it run. I probably took the same GU trades as you and am still in one and closed one earlier. But i was epecting some decent USD strength today .

Another thing to maybe do it take half profit at FTA and move SL to BE and see if you can catch a runner...I do this quite often when I'm not...

Thank you so much for your response. I incoorporated looking at S&P, Oil, Gold, Dow to give me more confluence. Thank you for your help. I went short @1.5993 on GBP/USD with a s/l of 46.
1 trader viewing now