AUD/USD

Hi FX-Petra, I am long for another retest of 1.01. Not sure if you see what I see it retested your 9500 mark, and it broke above 9800, and is now trading at 9900.

I believe it will be seen to 1.03 in few weeks. Regardless of the economic viewpont as described today in the posts. This has bullishness all over it here at the botom of the range. Put on OBV or MACD and enjoy the bullish divergence.

This was the ole buy the rumor sell the news, (Bought the $ overnight, and now its all released the uncertainly, I see selling stopped and shifted back into demand. You also have to remember the $ is in heap of trouble, and Aussie is way undervalued compared to it.

Obviously on a day-to-day basis, depending on economic news/figures released, the reaction is variable...i.e.,as a day trader, the CPI to be released after Tuesday midnight UK, has a chance to add 100+ pips, if this gauge shows inflation has increased and thus requires another possible interest rate increase to dampen proceedings...which is why we could see parity..COULD, not should!

...however, medium term, this will not reflect on the wind direction, which level 4 believes is heading towards Bognor Regis to 0.8600.

Inflation is also starting to be a real pain in the hiney for the Chinese economy. Note that food prices surged by 11.7% in November and led the 5.1% annual increase in China's CPI...and now tame inflation, the central bank resorted to setting higher minimum reserve requirements,meaning less money being available for lending.

This is all part of China's plan of shifting to a prudent monetary policy stance. Recall that last year, the Chinese government announced that it plans to implement more rate hikes in 2011 to combat inflation and to keep liquidity in check. Because of that, economic seers forecast four more interest rate hikes and a bunch of reserve ratio increases.

Check China's "tightening" over the past few months:

October 14, 2010 - PBoC raises the RRR by 50 basis points
October 19, 2010 - China hikes interest rates by 25 basis points
December 10, 2010 - Reserve ratio increases by 0.50%
December 25, 2010 - PBoC raise interest rates by 0.25%
January 14, 2011 - 50 basis point hike in reserve requirement

From this timeline, you've probably noticed that a reserve requirement hike is often followed by an increase in the actual interest rate. Word on the street is that if China sticks to its routine, we could see another 25 basis points before the end of the month!

Now, some of you might be wondering, "Why the heck should I care about China and the PBoC? China basically controls the value of the yuan and it's not even a major currency!"

Ah, but you see, everybody's who's anybody has his or her eyes on China nowadays. China is a global power house, being a major player in trade. Changes in monetary policy affect Chinese demand and trade will have an effect on the currencies of China's major trading partners.

Take for example Australia and Japan. With China booming over the past decade, Australia has relied on Chinese demand for raw materials and minerals to boost their export industries. If China continues to make moves to counter rising inflation, Australian exporters would be hard pressed to find someone else to make up for the slowing demand!

The above is not even including the 20+ Billion flooding cost to the Aussy economy

..........Target remains 0.8600-0.8900
Hope this is helping
Sanksalot

Long time since i posted something here, i see at my broker there are people who are longing this pair. But i'm pretty sure the aussie market has become a sell market for other countries. it will affect the gdp and reduce ppi and this because of higher unemployment.

Feb 3rd will be d day

regards

http://bit.ly/g5lCDq

Target 0.8600-0.8900
Sanks

PPI 0.1

as expected by the market as the floods. well, till5:00 . it s still sculping heaven. lunch break

The flood occured this month January of 2011.
This PPI is based on data for previous months October to December of 2010.

Flood has nothing to do with it...

true that, but this quater will be worse....

PPI and CPI numbers may get a big boost from the floods...

True, but when the policy makers make their interest rate decisions thay make adjustments to cpi etc for events such as floods, earthquakes etc

indeed, but the GDP figure wont be looking that sexy.....

Thats because the big swap is gonna hurt the position pip by pip each day. Many brokers charge as much as 1.4 pips a day for holding a short AUDUSD position.
Just think how much damage this will bring if one holds for 2 months - that will amount to a hefty 80+pips is swap fees.


Right now, with a bad PPI number, AUDUSD didnt push down hard... I believe this is all due to big money flow from the metal trades with China. and possible big carry trade from japanese investors

Incorrect. You would be surprised what items are included in GDP indicator. Even damage compensations by insurance companies are calculated...

http://twurl.nl/hz1z82

AUD/USD Technicals Suggest Further Downside
Jan 22 2011

Technical implications:

Bear flag break with measured move objective (modified from traditional TA methods & extended from top of flag rather than breakout point) towards 0.9600 channel support
55-day sma
0.382 fibo level (1/19-1/20 decline)
0.9800/25

Key horizontal pivot
H&S neckline with break below suggesting a measured move objective to the 0.9400/25 area

9953 = 50% fibo up of the drop from Jan/19 & former bullish trendline...

hi guys..

update aussie

from prev.post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3921

Hi Guys,

I'm new to this thread. Just started following AUDUSD a while ago.

I like your wave count smilemiz in the second pic. It agrees with what I was counting using New Elliott Wave Rule. I just went short at 0.9940.

Bogie

9981!!!

(61.8% fibo...)

ok, I did not see that one comming. All shorts stopped out.

There is something going on against USD.
it is weak on all fronts:
vs EUR, vs GBP, vs CHF, vs JPY, vs AUD

911?

There is a suicide bombing in Moscow, but this should not affect USD...