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AUD/USD

  • #27,441
  • Edited 6:08pm Jan 19, 2011 5:48pm | Edited 6:08pm
I use indicators with genuine feel behind them......like:

Direction of the wind -
Which tree the neighbours dog pisses on at market open -
By how many minutes early or late the 0730 bus is in the morning -
How many clouds are visible around 1300hrs -
Scientific Panasonic Calculator -
Level 4 -
Which finishes first, apple or the banana -

Hope these Level 4 indicators can help the genuine and the nobular investor, into making more financially precision defined decisions

Level 4 target 0.8600-0.8900
Sanksalot
  • #27,442
  • Jan 19, 2011 5:52pm Jan 19, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting Slang
but I am missing why the majority of the members of this forum are convinced that we are going to see this level broken down.

What theory do we really have that has everyone convinced to short AUDUSD?
I am uncertain that the 'majority' of traders here are bearish. I think there are some outspoken people who happen to be bearish and there are some very sharp traders here that don't post a lot but still seem bullish.

I don't think there is any official reason why it will crash today or tomorrow. The carry trade has made the AU$ soar, far above its fair worth.

Therefor there is a risk that when it does fall, it will go violently as those who have been gambling the carry trade pull their money out before they suffer a hit on the exchange rate with what are probably highy leveraged accounts.

There is some evidence that big investment funds have already pulled the pin, perhaps because it is starting to get too risky.

China slowing and US recovery are real possible threats to the AU$ value.

History show that it fluctuates a lot. Have a look at the weekly chart, then go back and read this very thread around the dates that it crashed in the past. No one saw it coming in such a severity when we went from 98c>62c. No one picked the 62c>102c either

I am thinking it is bound to crash, it is just a matter of time.

JJW
  • #27,443
  • Jan 19, 2011 5:59pm Jan 19, 2011 5:59pm
Quoting Slang
Quick question, I see the Stochastic divergence and I see the MACD sitting at pretty much 0.00 but I am missing why the majority of the members of this forum are convinced that we are going to see this level broken down.

What theory do we really have that has everyone convinced to short AUDUSD?
This is the S&P futures chart. Today's candle so far has engulfed bearish. When Goldman Sachs (aka the Vampire Squid) reports earnings a long way below expectations, it is an interesting development. Either

1. A warning sign that we are in for a dose of bear (because no doubt, GS would now be short the market, knowing what effect their earnings would have), or

2. A head fake that GS wil utilise to buy again when the market has sent price down (since the Dow performance is mostly theatre, courtesy of QE 1 and QE 2, which everyone knows.)

Concern also exists that China may not be doing as well as their former numbers have indicated, and today we have the China GDP data due.

Also, UCHF is at a very likely long hold support level, putting in a head and shoulders. COT shows the commercials and institutionals have been trimming dollar shorts. UJ is also at a very interesting level and likely to find some good support from 81.90 up.

AU and NZD are both short cover currencies for the Euro. They can be pumped and then slaughtered to save the Euro (because in the grander scheme of things, Euro's are potentially more valuable, being one of the 2 currencies used to settle international contracts.)

AU and NZD are considered risk assets, when doubt exists, they tend to sell off hard.

Some concern exists about AU being over-valued. Whether it is or not is a subjective call but if enough people believe this, it can make market/buyers nervous. When buyers are not plentiful, price can collapse quickly.

Stair-step up, elevator down. This is the core principle of how markets work.
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  • #27,444
  • Jan 19, 2011 6:12pm Jan 19, 2011 6:12pm
Quoting Alki
Level touched. In The market. We'll see if we Will have at least 0.9700 level.

Enjoy your trading

agree! and my guess is 9600 is on the agenda

evidence is here
1月额度或已告罄 中行建行在沪暂停房贷发放

http://www.sina.com.cn 2011年01月20日 02:31 每日经济新闻[ 微博 ]每日经济新闻


　　每经记者 贺麒麟 田文会 李静瑕 郭维娜
　　类似去年1月份的信贷急速投放可能不会再现。《每日经济新闻》记者通过调查发现，上海地区的国有大行中，中行和建行已经停发房贷。同时受到影响的还有票据融资。自去年上半年来，票据贴现利率几乎翻番，其规模也是一降再降。
　　【1月信贷调查·上海】
　　每经记者 贺麒麟 发自上海
　　此前有报道称，1月上旬四大行合计新增信贷投放约为2400亿元，信贷投放过猛引发监管层的关注；已有大行要求在1月份后两周只保证保障房贷款和重点客户贷款，暂停部分分行的按揭贷款和对公贷款。



sorry for the foreign language, up here says ,

chinese bank had over granted loan in January and very likely the banks will slow or suspend loans to house market etc.

which means resource market will be hit hard.

simptom will soon show next week on au/us.
  • #27,445
  • Jan 19, 2011 6:13pm Jan 19, 2011 6:13pm
Damn...had a Corsa parked up at 1.0110....wander if i will get another chance!
Really should have given the market both Corsa's at 1.0050

I will leave it parked up for now...otherwise hoping the market can drop off me Toyota Lexus at 0.8900...for a genuine honest trade-in.

Sanksalot
Target 0.8600-0.8900
  • #27,446
  • Jan 19, 2011 6:21pm Jan 19, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting yakuzaking
agree! and my guess is 9600 is on the agenda

evidence is here
1月额度或已告罄 中行建行在沪暂停房贷发放

http://www.sina.com.cn...



Yakuza...i think what you will find is, according to Level 4, once it hits the 0.9700 region, it should drip into the "black-hole" left vacant on the way up to todays bubbled valuation.
Level 4 consensus is a no-brainer test of 0.9200 before the dead cat & subsequent target of 0.8900.

Hope this helps
Sanks
  • #27,447
  • Jan 19, 2011 6:33pm Jan 19, 2011 6:33pm
Quoting ely
Yakuza...i think what you will find is, according to Level 4, once it hits the 0.9700 region, it should drip into the "black-hole" left vacant on the way up to todays bubbled valuation.
Level 4 consensus is a no-brainer test of 0.9200 before the dead cat & subsequent target of 0.8900.

Hope this helps
Sanks

no ,
97 region you can find heaps of support, 9650 9500 , very strong support .
only in the assumption of the basis of natural or financial disaster will break it.

and it may takes ages to break it.
  • #27,448
  • Jan 19, 2011 6:56pm Jan 19, 2011 6:56pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Howdy Petra.

Long time since you were "thanking Uncle Ben" every day. I think you're going to get new short entries. The greenback looks to soar today and tomorrow. Hope all is well.

I've got shorts on the kiwi from 7703 and aussie from 9977. Aussie daily is setting up as a very sexy pin and kiwi is an even sexier engulfing. Things could get more volatile soon.
Good to see you around, TEX! I too think we are in for some dollar strength. I already entered again @ 9960 to go with 1.0006. Target 9825 and then 9725. We will see. Hope all is well with you!!!
  • #27,449
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:29pm Jan 19, 2011 8:29pm
I'm looking for .80 by Summer. But still think we're up for retest of record highs. Too many newbies are shorting this pair. And newbies never call carry trade explosions correctly.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #27,450
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:36pm Jan 19, 2011 8:36pm
Well, that was an interesting set of numbers out of China.... not what market was expecting, (market is likely pondering the validity of this)... so what now.

Euro may move higher during Asia, but when risk is off, the risk sensitive pairs (GBP, AU, NZD) tend to head south, while all the crosses do reasonably well - i.e. EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD

Market will be conscious of the S&P potential for another bear day tomorrow, especially ahead of the weekend.

UCHF has some resistance @ .9578, followed by .9594, higher again at .9615..... keeping in mind that market will often test support more than once. What London does today will be interesting.

When risk is off, market can prefer to sell down during London, then wait for the US market to correct it prior to and during equities open if necessary, otherwise the US will add to the shorts in progress.
  • #27,451
  • Jan 19, 2011 9:52pm Jan 19, 2011 9:52pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
I'm looking for .80 by Summer. But still think we're up for retest of record highs. Too many newbies are shorting this pair. And newbies never call carry trade explosions correctly.

Hi mate, i have the same thought like you, .80 level around summer period. But for now, i am looking at .96~.92 level then retest the new high level, then straight down for gradually down to 0.80 level, i assume there will be a bearish trend soon(like in couple of weeks, due to the flood in QL area).... but we will see....
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,452
  • Jan 19, 2011 10:12pm Jan 19, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting yakuzaking
agree! and my guess is 9600 is on the agenda
.
Thanks for sharing, but i trade only technical and No way at all for fundamentals. It needs an other approach, analysis and research. I prefer technical.

I see also 0.9600 and we could go also to Ely 0.8900 target but it needs long Time before arrival. I tryied to have a top to "at least 0.9700 level" many times and i had failure for many times. It does not cost me because i follow strict money management but not yet good reward i was expecting. Still now, i am not sure to go directly to that level before a good retrace and Maybe comme back to parity again. I said it once in an old post, i am Still new trading this exceptionnel pair. It has it's own personality. I am trying to apply all that i know in trading from three years to monitor trading in aussie, but Still learning something new everyday. I think this pair with GBP/JPY are The best challenge a trader can enjoy.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,453
  • Jan 19, 2011 10:17pm Jan 19, 2011 10:17pm
EUR/AUD is breaking out over the weekly trend line. EU may well put in another wick on the daily, i.e. retrace to the high of the last session, then sell off again (or not). EU does have a truck load of resistance @ 1.3550-70 running in to the 200 ema on the weekly chart.

This would also be in keeping with another test for UCHF around .9500-20 and another test for UJ around 81.90.

And let us keep in mind the dead cat bounce for equities, tho gotta say, if GS is short the market, I wouldn't want to be trading against them.
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  • #27,454
  • Jan 19, 2011 10:18pm Jan 19, 2011 10:18pm
Quoting kentashiburo
No one trading the sister currency?

Is dropping like its hot....

For myself and up to now, No.

I use it as indicator but no to trade. Its volatility is not satisfying my trading approach.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,455
  • Jan 19, 2011 10:31pm Jan 19, 2011 10:31pm
Aussie update

take a look...


desc. prev. post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post4327943
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Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: auichi.jpg Size: 193 KB
  • #27,456
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:50pm Jan 19, 2011 11:50pm
Will short as/if* we approach the 1.06 area. Stops seem to be littered around the 1.03-1.05 level, would be odd of the market to not stop there to become one with them. A medium term top around 1.02 just seems too easy.

As for kiwi, will go short as we approach the .80-.8050 mark. Stops seem to be lurking about 250 pips from where we are now. Same thing with the kiwi, almost seems to easy to short around the .77 level.


all IMO ....


Peace
  • #27,457
  • Jan 20, 2011 12:43am Jan 20, 2011 12:43am
Quoting Warwick
Will short as/if* we approach the 1.06 area. Stops seem to be littered around the 1.03-1.05 level, would be odd of the market to not stop there to become one with them. A medium term top around 1.02 just seems too easy.

As for kiwi, will go short as we approach the .80-.8050 mark. Stops seem to be lurking about 250 pips from where we are now. Same thing with the kiwi, almost seems to easy to short around the .77 level.


all IMO ....


Peace
Ya for sure. Way too many newbies are calling to short this
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #27,458
  • Jan 20, 2011 12:48am Jan 20, 2011 12:48am
its now consolidation area..lets see what happen.
  • #27,459
  • Jan 20, 2011 1:06am Jan 20, 2011 1:06am
Quoting rahulkghosh
Ya for sure. Way too many newbies are calling to short this
Lol, isn't all relevant to what TIMEFRAME you are trading??
For example: if you shorted 1.0077 (there was a good old reason to short there too) you'd be sitting on better than 100 pips profit.
I'm thinking long main trend too, with a target of at least 10300,but that doesn't stop me from shorting at the appropriate levels.
Biggest joker
  • #27,460
  • Jan 20, 2011 1:28am Jan 20, 2011 1:28am
Quoting baron193
Lol, isn't all relevant to what TIMEFRAME you are trading??
For example: if you shorted 1.0077 (there was a good old reason to short there too) you'd be sitting on better than 100 pips profit.
I'm thinking long main trend too, with a target of at least 10300,but that doesn't stop me from shorting at the appropriate levels.
Definitely it depends on time frames. But people calling for the crash to happen now have just gotta stop. We have yet to clearly break through that ascendign trendline or 100 day MA. Either sell on topside failure around 1.02-1.03 region or wait for break below.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
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