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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #22,101
  • Jan 18, 2011 4:45am Jan 18, 2011 4:45am
Quoting fullperson
tunnel in the air?

Scout size makes damages from ego less because its size is small. The scout "helps" some ego problems, but the scout can also trap people. For example, when the scout is doing bad sometimes we focus too much on rescue instead of flipping. Eventually, we can miss the impulse move.
  • #22,102
  • Jan 18, 2011 4:46am Jan 18, 2011 4:46am
Quoting piccolo
I read somewhere that Oanda will support MT4 in 2011, maybe some Beta testing is already available. Not my broker.
Hi Piccolo. It would be great! I will check it. Thx
  • #22,103
  • Edited 6:01am Jan 18, 2011 4:52am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting piccolo
Gro, did you look at the page number? Maybe it is 666?

Just kidding but the mind sees what the mind wants to see.

I would conclude that the beheading is blowing your account or seeing somebody else blow their account. At that point one should start following orders. In our case, we have 2 generals, FTI and the market.

Regards,
666 no ... It is the number for human ("6" is the symbol of the spiral ... which is roll based on up)
AOW starts on the third sheet and continue counting four, five, six ... thirteenth is described ... etc.
Attached Image
  • #22,104
  • Jan 18, 2011 5:59am Jan 18, 2011 5:59am
Quoting MyTbo
Hey, Gro, what's that with the angles ?
Square of nine
  • #22,105
  • Jan 18, 2011 6:39am Jan 18, 2011 6:39am
I have a script for MT4, so it is a bit easier.
The thing about this methods is that it requires being in the now. So it is very hard to have limit orders set up before you see the actual movement in price. I am not sure how you do it, but you must be lightning fast fana!

Perhaps someone on this thread with programming experience can write a more user friendly script.


Quoting Fana
Hi Fullperson. When you need to follow the trend as much as possible. You need to be orperative, no wait for opening tickets, writing lots... and so...The thought is about having it all prepaire in Oanda. Yoar for example 1000unit long and NOW, you need to change it to 1000short by one click! How you can do it? regards
  • #22,106
  • Jan 18, 2011 6:48am Jan 18, 2011 6:48am
After reading through this thread found many points that stand out for me regarding the mindset approach but something is not as clear as I would like to be,so I would like to address you the following question.

Where is the line cross between being predictive and making your own thinking on price behavior(TA)? How you avoid the predictive perspective, bc from my own perception they imply each other.

Isn't it so that when for eg. you make your own bias regarding trend direction you are predictive, you already are imposing assumption on charts. There is no way one can avoid the predictive side,in the way I perceive it for the moment.

So where is the difference?

My own process thought regarding price movement is not sophisticated but quite contrary but after I make my own thinking regarding price behavior, I'm very flexible and the final decision I made after I grab the info thats coming from the way price is behaving into the NOW,and how I "feel" about it,that leaves the door open for any outcome.

Could you say that I'm self deceiving with that kind of approach.

I have to repeat something I'm not trying to copy paste fti's technique, I trade my own interpretation based on my own observations, but what I try to steal from fti is the mindset approach which is quite appealing to me.

all opinions are welcome

all the best!
  • #22,107
  • Jan 18, 2011 6:52am Jan 18, 2011 6:52am
Quoting fullperson
I have a script for MT4, so it is a bit easier.
The thing about this methods is that it requires being in the now. So it is very hard to have limit orders set up before you see the actual movement in price. I am not sure how you do it, but you must be lightning fast fana!

Perhaps someone on this thread with programming experience can write a more user friendly script.
Be as fast as possible. All veapons have to be ready and play our game. Not their game... My money!
  • #22,108
  • Edited 7:54am Jan 18, 2011 7:04am | Edited 7:54am
I just want to point something about the rescue mode
- When rescuing and have 1.1.3. When reached BE, (due of conditions), close all. because when close only 3, and let 1.1. in game... one can simply tend to re-load 3 when in minus again.... But this is very often retrace§ and trend is continuing against... regards
  • #22,109
  • Jan 18, 2011 9:46am Jan 18, 2011 9:46am
Quoting triger88990
After reading through this thread found many points that stand out for me regarding the mindset approach but something is not as clear as I would like to be,so I would like to address you the following question.

Where is the line cross between being predictive and making your own thinking on price behavior(TA)? How you avoid the predictive perspective, bc from my own perception they imply each other.

Isn't it so that when for eg. you make your own bias regarding trend direction you are predictive, you already are imposing assumption on charts....
Hi triger88990
"big ships" of determine the trend or you know when will this trend end? = if you not know ... trend is determined.
Accurate market information gives only a scout.

"the way price is behaving into the NOW,and how I "feel" about it" ... why, then, know yourself and know the enemy?!?
Rgs
  • #22,110
  • Jan 18, 2011 10:43am Jan 18, 2011 10:43am
Quoting Gro
Hi triger88990
"big ships" of determine the trend or you know when will this trend end? = if you not know ... trend is determined.
Accurate market information gives only a scout.

"the way price is behaving into the NOW,and how I "feel" about it" ... why, then, know yourself and know the enemy?!?
Rgs
before you put the scout in you are making some assumption regarding the price behavior, which for me is still a predictive perspective. You can't make a random choice regarding the direction,even if you aren't aware consciously of your decisions your subconscious mind can take control whithout being aware,imposing you to take action based on a predictive perspective.

isn't you fault but I think as far as I'm concerned I give on "predictive" word to much meaning

As far as is my understanding the scout connects you with the market rhythm which makes you to take a full commitment regarding the market action and your positions.

Knowing yourself and the market is indispensable.

thanks for the reply

all the best!
  • #22,111
  • Jan 18, 2011 11:17am Jan 18, 2011 11:17am
Triger, In my humble opinion the line that I draw is when one of these is violated:

-you draw or put anything other than a simple hourly sma on your chart (you may become blinded by what you want to see instead of watching movement of price)
-when the indicator is lagging
-you pull the trigger because of the TA with no confirmation from behavior of price.

Fti mentioned that generally the daily 3k is used for direction when you do not know what is happening. This is the "super duper" trend which Gro calls the "big ships". If you do not know what is happening your skew should be very limited anyways, allowing rescues or flips to be utilized when trend appears.

However, as someone mentioned earlier, you see the new trends develop on the lower TF. So you must be PREPARED. For me, this means keeping your skew under control and being flexible when the hints appear.

For me, this is how I trade (check for errors please). I personally do not think too much into trends at all (unless the super duper trend is in action). The price tends to hint several times where it is going... eventually it will slap you in the face if you don't take the hint.

Where do you get the hints? Watch the price as it enters round numbers, as it reaches s/r. I try to look at how patterns are negated or valid, feel the momentum as it makes breaks ect. Then I personally keep a mental note of what has happened until I have enough to make a bias on what may happen the next time the price reaches the same level.

If you feel an impulse of decent momentum and you are against it (and it's not a sweep) then you have a pretty good idea you are against the trend. A mis-timed movement should never move to a level that is unreasonably far away. You will be very deep in the waters if you are on the wrong side of the trend. It will be obvious.

When I don't know the trend it probably is because it is ranging. In this case my MO is not to look for trends. It's to trade the ranged based on momentum, and flip when new direction appears. If you want to trade trends, fti mentions that you would likely be out of the market for 70% of the time.


Fana, I believe in that as well. After watching the full retrace, if I see no possibility of rescue and good opportunity ahead, I think it is best to close out all positions and wait for re-alignment with main trend. However, until you have watched the full counter swing, I try not to give up. As I mentioned earlier, flipping while the counter sing is developing is useful only for very fast leveraged flips when momentum is huge. Otherwise, if you flip inside the counterswing, you can get trapped again.

Please accept my ideas with a grain of salt, I am not as advanced as any of you yet.

Quoting triger88990
After reading through this thread found many points that stand out for me regarding the mindset approach but something is not as clear as I would like to be,so I would like to address you the following question.

Where is the line cross between being predictive and making your own thinking on price behavior(TA)? How you avoid the predictive perspective, bc from my own perception they imply each other.

Isn't it so that when for eg. you make your own bias regarding trend direction you are predictive, you already are imposing assumption on charts....
  • #22,112
  • Jan 18, 2011 11:24am Jan 18, 2011 11:24am
Quoting triger88990
before you put the scout in you are making some assumption regarding the price behavior, which for me is still a predictive perspective. You can't make a random choice regarding the direction,even if you aren't aware consciously of your decisions your subconscious mind can take control whithout being aware,imposing you to take action based on a predictive perspective.

isn't you fault but I think as far as I'm concerned I give on "predictive" word to much meaning

As far as is my understanding the scout connects you with the market rhythm...
Triger what u looking for here???.....
  • #22,113
  • Jan 18, 2011 12:34pm Jan 18, 2011 12:34pm
@ fullperson,

thanks for the replay but you have gone far away from my point, it seems you misunderstand me, try re-read it one more time, what's my question addressed there?

It seems is true that I'm the worst teacher on planet Earth.

When I try to put together some pieces to explain to someone else my process thought,I tend not to be understand,but thats my fault is not because of you.

@ indianguyinny24

Just trying to see where is the cross line between making your analysis regarding price behavior and being predictive,hope I'm much more clear now.

all the best!
  • #22,114
  • Jan 18, 2011 12:45pm Jan 18, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting triger88990

@ indianguyinny24

Just trying to see where is the cross line between making your analysis regarding price behavior and being predictive,hope I'm much more clear now.

all the best!

Ok i am not sure if this ans...but keep it simple...

Price behaviour -> Bring us to BIAS (long or short) ....

Above is just a part of equation then there is MM to back it up if we are wrong or right and Mindset to implement the MM

V
  • #22,115
  • Jan 18, 2011 12:54pm Jan 18, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting triger88990
@ fullperson,

thanks for the replay but you have gone far away from my point, it seems you misunderstand me, try re-read it one more time, what's my question addressed there?

It seems is true that I'm the worst teacher on planet Earth.

When I try to put together some pieces to explain to someone else my process thought,I tend not to be understand,but thats my fault is not because of you.

@ indianguyinny24

Just trying to see where is the cross line between making your analysis regarding price behavior and being predictive,hope I'm...
I know myself and I know the enemy ... then do not be predictive ... I know my limits and know the limits of the enemy ... If you do not know each other and you not know the enemy ... you will own prediction ... with the cross line and without cross line.
Rgs
  • #22,116
  • Jan 18, 2011 1:51pm Jan 18, 2011 1:51pm
Hi Friends,

interesting question about the line between predection and trading in the here and now. Have asked fti a similiar question in the early days of this thread. Unfortunately I can not find it now. Maybe you have some more luck with your search ...

The determination of a bias is not considered of being predictive.
What we are basically doing is to determine the trend for the past. How long you are going to look back depends on your trading timeframe. The determination could be done very simple. Just scanning for: HH, LL, reversal formations, Momentum. Once you have determined the trend, the "big ships" and Newtons laws, like mass inertia, come into play. Mass inertia does only mean, that a strong trend with good momentum is not very likely to change in a blink of time.
Now we have determined the direction for the scout.
But there is no prediction at all, cause we are continously following the charts and checking for hints of changes.

Being predictive - from my understanding - means for example, to see the break of 1.3400 level with good momentum and focussing and managing your troops for 1.35 as next target.

Predictive is also, when US news are bad for USD to expect that EU will go up. Only PA can tell you and has shown several times in the past few weeks, that it can move also in opposite direction.

CU,
Niels
  • #22,117
  • Jan 18, 2011 2:36pm Jan 18, 2011 2:36pm
If price makes a new higher high and a following higher low and then yet another higher high........... Am I predictive or analytical in assuming that the trend is long?
  • #22,118
  • Edited Jan 19, 2011 4:40am Jan 18, 2011 4:06pm | Edited Jan 19, 2011 4:40am
I see it as simply noting current momentum with the understanding that it may change unexpectedly, hence be attentive and nimble with entry and exit.

Edit : To add that the 'prediction' is in the expectation of the temporary continuation of the current sentiment. Proboably due partly to the difficulties of finding sufficient liquidity to execute large orders, but mainly to the effects of crowd behaviour.
  • #22,119
  • Jan 18, 2011 8:02pm Jan 18, 2011 8:02pm
Quoting triger88990
After reading through this thread found many points that stand out for me regarding the mindset approach but something is not as clear as I would like to be,so I would like to address you the following question.

Where is the line cross between being predictive and making your own thinking on price behavior(TA)? How you avoid the predictive perspective, bc from my own perception they imply each other.

Isn't it so that when for eg. you make your own bias regarding trend direction you are predictive, you already are imposing assumption on charts....
There is a difference between doing TA and being predictive. A trend line is not predictive, nor are candle stick patterns, etc. Predictive around here is thinking the market is going to do something ahead of the signals, patterns, or the "music". There is no avoiding being predictive, though, since every time we enter an trade we are making a prediction.What separates the men from the boys is knowing what to do once that prediction is made and entered.
  • #22,120
  • Edited 12:55am Jan 19, 2011 12:45am | Edited 12:55am
Do other people on this thread think that central banks or possibly institutions with big positions (or looking to acquire them at a favourable price) have an influence over news articles?

I may be on a paranoid trip but I find this article strangely slanted:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...inflation.html

Without going into any details as to whether or not the premises put forward are correct or not, the pound has not weakened against the Euro since the beginning of August. It is slightly weaker now than it was on Monday 2nd August but this is not a trend that has been in evidence lately.

It did weaken against the Euro between the beginning of August and a low point on the 25th October but since then it has been gaining against the Euro. I have no axe to grind and do not wish to form any long term opinions but I find it strange that an article on Bloomberg would misrepresent the true facts, which are that for nearly three months the pound has been outperforming the Euro and not the other way around.

Anybody else got any thoughts on this?

EDIT: I have edited this post a couple of times as I made some mistakes initially.
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