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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #22,081
  • Jan 17, 2011 11:15am Jan 17, 2011 11:15am
Quoting indianguyinny24
I have one friend very close to me who knows i trade FX....he has seen me evolving when i started trading back in 2007....he had moved out from NYC like 2 years ago...so yesterday we met after 2 years....after all normal talk he asked about forex...

SO he asked how do i trade....after my explanantion he said...


"SIr i asked you hwo u trade but what u told me is entire philosophical thigns there is nothing absoluete in terms of trading u r telling me....

what then i told him in his layman terms is we do Dynamic Risk management aka cost averaging...
Yes, my dear friends ... It's change thinking =>...
  • #22,082
  • Jan 17, 2011 11:20am Jan 17, 2011 11:20am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Mark and Zoran.

It's all about mindset - as allways.
Be strong Mark!

By the way: Gro - how you are doing?
Still without cigs?

Cu,
Niels
"sometimes bad position ... but always to rescue it ..."
  • #22,083
  • Jan 17, 2011 11:58am Jan 17, 2011 11:58am
I hope fti is ok. Best wishes for him and his recovery.

auxesis, I was wondering what types of people trade during what terrains, as well as what their probable stops/orders are? I would like to know because if I had a general idea of how they position themselves, I would be able to interpret the behavior of the pair as it approaches these areas.

My assumption is that institutional traders have orders around the round numbers and breakout traders have positions near the breaks (maybe a few pips above).

Quoting auxesis
my thoughts on orders; sell(pink) and long(green) stops(gray), if one side doesn't make it to the other that should say something

fwiw
  • #22,084
  • Jan 17, 2011 12:03pm Jan 17, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting imjscn
Dear all,

I received an email from one of FTI's friends. He is in hospital now.

I am posting on behalf of FTI to inform that he will be out of action for the next 3 to 5 days to fix some plumbing problem at the hospital.

Sorry for the short note, I will post again when I get further information.
I wish him a speedy recovery.
  • #22,085
  • Edited 1:07pm Jan 17, 2011 12:53pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting Gro
... try re-read the AOW
"Ho Lu said to him: “I have carefully perused your 13 chapters. May I submit your theory of managing soldiers to a slight test?”
Sun Tzu replied: “You may.”
Ho Lu asked: “May the test be applied to women?”
The answer was again in the affirmative, so arrangements were made to bring 180 ladies out of the Palace. Sun Tzu divided them into two companies, and placed one of the King’s favorite concubines at the head of each ..."

Rgs
Hi fullperson

I think, you want to do "rocket science".So I wrote about re-reading AOW.AOW was the several times explain, I try to my interpretation.Maybe you look at it differently.
Try to chain ideas.
"AOW - SunTzu" = art, lighting, center, complex = circle.
"He created 13 chapters" = The Moon has 13 cycles per Sun cycle ... but here it is just as in nature - irregular division.
“May the test be applied to women?” = AOW universally applicable and woman is a symbol of empathy, subordination, etc.
"...made to bring 180 ladies out of the Palace" = whole is a symbolic circle (360°) a 180 I think is half (never use all their "capital"- money, energy, etc.)
"...divided them into two companies" = I think not half but the irregular distribution (13chapters) as you wrote, if one companies of the difficulty and the second is used for rescue.
"...and placed one of the King's favorite concubines" = must be emotionally and intrinsically linked with the battle - scout (otherwise it is just fantasy)

etc...

in principle, you are well.

PS Time is not ... 5 min. 1 hour but it is only movement!

Rgs
  • #22,086
  • Edited 4:04pm Jan 17, 2011 3:23pm | Edited 4:04pm
Guys do sports in recreational level, u will be fine. Tenis is nice sport, taekwondo also. Be careful with cycling velocity is very dangerous and traffic. Smoking is just one bad habit, which fills goverment pockets =D I am gonna join national team workout next week, and now I ll try to have 3 workouts per day durin holidays. In professional sport its all about money and luck. How much financial support u have, and how lucky u r with ur health
  • #22,087
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:17pm Jan 17, 2011 4:17pm
thanks gro, I'm always doing "rocket science" because I like to be creative. I think fti would be ok with that when not trading (off-time). We should be developing our own spirals for our nature. But I to keep this scorpion in my cage until after hours.

But now I am not using spiral or rescue spirals at all. I find having fib spiral as MO is rigid. But it useful to explain attack/flip MO. Sometimes 2,1,1 or 1,2,1 better than 1,1,2. Spiral was useful for "easier managing" (like when your attack changes and you need to make a new base).

I am adding positions only when I feel movement and depending on what makes sense with the momentum/terrain. I take positions out when necessary. The total positions and basis are easily calculated (via excel for now, btw, does anyone have a mental math trick for the basis?) so when rescue is needed, I choose a good place due to past action/ momentum for a 5-8 pip rescue (hopefully I will get better at this as I practice).

To use the MO I am using now requires knowing your limits of pain and fear (I am just now discovering my limits). So I never place enough troops out there to reach my mental limits. When I feel uncomfortable I can rescue or flip or change scout size for managing, but I try my best to maintain resolve to fight for every inch of my territory.

Gro, I sometimes keep scout out of ranges and before new release. But I can see that they provide the resolve to fight when losing. It keeps you in the market because you HAVE to babysit. Keeps discipline when trading. You are very very right in my opinion.

But, scout can be very dangerous for ego scorpion.

My trick is to stay with scout until the full counter swing completes

If you switch direction without seeing the counter move (being too nimble), then you risk being trapped again. When you trapped a second time, it causes confusion and fear.

EDIT: you are right Gro, 5min, 1hr time frames are artificial, the movement of the price as it enters significant areas is most important. Movement should be decider on if I pull the trigger or not. But I think it is still important to use timeframes because there are patterns inside patterns. When a top happens on 1hr, I want to be prepared for it (less aggressive skew or begin to square). When 5min tops out, then may watch for new direction.
  • #22,088
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:35pm Jan 17, 2011 4:35pm
Goodluck mijamoto. We are all well aware of the dangers of speedy sports, and hopefully speedy trading It is sad to hear that professional sports is about money and luck, many people miss opportunities. But these are of little importance when it comes to the mental aspect of training. It's great to see someone excited about their experiences. It brings me a warm feeling inside when people like you have passion and determination. If you have confidence, health and unrelenting resolve, you will succeed.

Quoting mijamoto
Guys do sports in recreational level, u will be fine. Tenis is nice sport, taekwondo also. Be careful with cycling velocity is very dangerous and traffic. Smoking is just one bad habit, which fills goverment pockets =D I am gonna join national team workout next week, and now I ll try to have 3 workouts per day durin holidays. In professional sport its all about money and luck. How much financial support u have, and how lucky u r with ur health
  • #22,089
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:04pm Jan 17, 2011 5:04pm
I consider one self monitor for tickets with orders Oanda... Have there for example 100-buy, 200-sell, 300-buy, 400-sell ......(you can be still 100sell or buy).... Very operative-can react very quickly!
(such ticket pool.... would you like wine or sake?:-)) regards
  • #22,090
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:46pm Jan 17, 2011 5:46pm
Ok let me just tell one thing, which makes me so sad in sport. In the end its all business. To make audience satisfied. Like in 2008 olympics it was very strong tournament, if u r into taekwondo, in a olympic spirit. But audience found it boring, lots of waiting not so much action, so WTF changed rules siginficantly. Now they use electronic protectors, which measuere power of kick, so u really have to kick strong to get a point, and also head is now 3 points, what makes players more to kick in head. So I just wanna tell, cuz audience wanted more fight now taekwondo is turning more into fight than it was before. I went many competitions last year as an asistant coach, I love that role, and there are so many dirty players, who have no space in sports really. In austria on competition, I got some crazy guy, who was so passionate to win, as he couldnt score me a point, he was kicking me hard whenver he could get, I just got light bruise nth else fortunately. Also my friends, like cant get me on workout so they use brute force and power to beat you. That is one thing which horiffies me in any contact sport. That is also why I dont compete yet, but focus on making my technique perfect. all the best guys
  • #22,091
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:58pm Jan 17, 2011 5:58pm
Quoting fullperson
thanks gro, I'm always doing "rocket science" because I like to be creative. I think fti would be ok with that when not trading (off-time). We should be developing our own spirals for our nature. But I to keep this scorpion in my cage until after hours.

But now I am not using spiral or rescue spirals at all. I find having fib spiral as MO is rigid. But it useful to explain attack/flip MO. Sometimes 2,1,1 or 1,2,1 better than 1,1,2. Spiral was useful for "easier managing" (like when your attack changes and you need to make a new base).

I am...
Hi fullperson
Scorpion is a for me synonym Greed (money, knowledge, pip) and Fear (money, knowledge, pip).
For rescue the badly timed position is the smallest size, fibo but the division can be different ("golden rule-not spend it all in one place") ... example 1,1,2 about the rhythm or 1,1 market is more away from the rhythm and 3 or 4 ...
Add position and know yourself and your limits are the same.I am building a network or tunnel in the air, if you want.
"But, scout can be very dangerous for ego scorpion." I think scout heals ego scorpion.
Time is not important but price.

Rgs
  • #22,092
  • Jan 17, 2011 10:55pm Jan 17, 2011 10:55pm
tunnel in the air?

Scout size makes damages from ego less because its size is small. The scout "helps" some ego problems, but the scout can also trap people. For example, when the scout is doing bad sometimes we focus too much on rescue instead of flipping. Eventually, we can miss the impulse move.


Quoting Gro
Hi fullperson
Scorpion is a for me synonym Greed (money, knowledge, pip) and Fear (money, knowledge, pip).
For rescue the badly timed position is the smallest size, fibo but the division can be different ("golden rule-not spend it all in one place") ... example 1,1,2 about the rhythm or 1,1 market is more away from the rhythm and 3 or 4 ...
Add position and know yourself and your limits are the same.I am building a network or tunnel in the air, if you want.
"But, scout can be very dangerous for ego scorpion." I think scout heals ego scorpion.
Time...
  • #22,093
  • Jan 17, 2011 11:05pm Jan 17, 2011 11:05pm
huh? I might have missed an earlier post. Could you explain?

Quoting Fana
I consider one self monitor for tickets with orders Oanda... Have there for example 100-buy, 200-sell, 300-buy, 400-sell ......(you can be still 100sell or buy).... Very operative-can react very quickly!
(such ticket pool.... would you like wine or sake?:-)) regards
  • #22,094
  • Jan 17, 2011 11:26pm Jan 17, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting Gro
Hi fullperson

I think,...
I may be completely wrong but I think you are attaching too much significance to some parts of the text (13 chapters, 180 women). I always thought it was the general strategies such as knowing your terrain, manouvreability etcetera that were the important things to take from AOW. I certainly see no importance in the number of chapters or the number of concubines, I don't think it's meant to be that esoteric...but if I'm wrong then I'm wrong.
  • #22,095
  • Jan 18, 2011 1:08am Jan 18, 2011 1:08am
Quoting Gro
Hi fti

405-400-395(step -22.5°)
405=446(180°), 413=454(180°) ... but why 405,413? and etc? Can you explain the procedure?Please.

Rgs
Hey, Gro, what's that with the angles ?
  • #22,096
  • Jan 18, 2011 2:02am Jan 18, 2011 2:02am
Quoting ukmanthailan
..... I think you are attaching too much significance to some parts of the text (13 chapters, 180 women). ...... I certainly see no importance in the number of chapters or the number of concubines, I don't think it's meant to be that esoteric....
Neither do I.

When the concubines did not take their drill seriousely Sun Tse said, " .... I have not explained well". In the beginning when ppls erred our teacher said he had not explained well and explained again, and again.

When the concubines erred again they got their heads chopped off. We have seen many metaphorical beheadings in the later thread. Some of us are lucky our teacher is recovering in hospital or heads will fly

Peace,
Baifu
  • #22,097
  • Jan 18, 2011 2:46am Jan 18, 2011 2:46am
Quoting Gro
Hi fullperson

I think,...
Gro, did you look at the page number? Maybe it is 666?

Just kidding but the mind sees what the mind wants to see.

I would conclude that the beheading is blowing your account or seeing somebody else blow their account. At that point one should start following orders. In our case, we have 2 generals, FTI and the market.

Regards,
  • #22,098
  • Jan 18, 2011 3:16am Jan 18, 2011 3:16am
I think the devil's been logging into my broker account and placing trades.....and he's not very good at it either!

*Reminder: Major figs out in ten minutes for any other cable players*
  • #22,099
  • Jan 18, 2011 3:30am Jan 18, 2011 3:30am
Quoting fullperson
huh? I might have missed an earlier post. Could you explain?
Hi Fullperson. When you need to follow the trend as much as possible. You need to be orperative, no wait for opening tickets, writing lots... and so...The thought is about having it all prepaire in Oanda. Yoar for example 1000unit long and NOW, you need to change it to 1000short by one click! How you can do it? regards
  • #22,100
  • Jan 18, 2011 4:15am Jan 18, 2011 4:15am
Quoting Fana
Hi Fullperson. When you need to follow the trend as much as possible. You need to be orperative, no wait for opening tickets, writing lots... and so...The thought is about having it all prepaire in Oanda. Yoar for example 1000unit long and NOW, you need to change it to 1000short by one click! How you can do it? regards
I read somewhere that Oanda will support MT4 in 2011, maybe some Beta testing is already available. Not my broker.
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