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AUD/USD

  • #27,341
  • Jan 16, 2011 5:43pm Jan 16, 2011 5:43pm
Quoting DhaoS
If you are hoping for a China collapse to short this pair, i'd say you better buy some gold...
One should always read the whole story and pay close attention to the concluding line. In this case -

"Even the hedge funds concede that their timing might not be perfect. Corriente warns that investors, who are required to put in a minimum of $1m each, should brace themselves for an estimated burn-rate of 20pc a year until the theory pays off. But it’s a risk that plenty seem willing to take. "

So, on the basis of a story which itself articulates this scenario as a very long term (years) position play with a fore-warning that investors may lose 20% pa until it pays off, it would be somewhat unwise to think this is going to happen today, tomorrow or this week or that it will happen at all.

But when traders have an attachment to their open positions and views, they often look for evidence to support that view. This is called emotional entanglement (aka blinkers), and it is something experienced traders don't do.

Just trade the chart, stay realistic and attempt to put things in proper context.
  • #27,342
  • Jan 16, 2011 6:03pm Jan 16, 2011 6:03pm
Quoting Jade Gate
One should always read the whole story and pay close attention to the concluding line....
I don't have a position on AUDUSD right now even though i admit i don't believe in a AUDUSD crash and that it's not "chart based".
Btw you have to tell me where you and this guy have talked about any charts in your posts? Because it seems like the thing we should believe in and not some speculators rumors
  • #27,343
  • Jan 16, 2011 6:23pm Jan 16, 2011 6:23pm
Quoting DhaoS
I don't have a position on AUDUSD right now even though i admit i don't believe in a AUDUSD crash and that it's not "chart based".
Btw you have to tell me where you and this guy have talked about any charts in your posts? Because it seems like the thing we should believe in and not some speculators rumors
break 0.98050 then straight away 0.97650

crash??......soon...n dun get shock
  • #27,344
  • Jan 16, 2011 6:28pm Jan 16, 2011 6:28pm
Quoting DhaoS
I don't have a position on AUDUSD right now even though i admit i don't believe in a AUDUSD crash and that it's not "chart based".
Btw you have to tell me where you and this guy have talked about any charts in your posts? Because it seems like the thing we should believe in and not some speculators rumors
I thought it was an interesting article btw, but one has to take everything with a grain of salt and not let the opinions of analysts, economists or other traders influence your own trading decisions (which frankly, is why many experienced traders simply don't post in these forums, it becomes "noise" - a distraction.)

You can see my chart and take on AU in earlier post here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=27332

I won't be buying AU until the cross tests 1.37, and subject to the EUR/AUD candles at that time. Wherever the PA on AU is at that time, I will also look for confirmation in the candles on AU for a bull move.

An entry around .9720 - .9735 would be of much interest (touch of the 21 ema weekly chart and former good support area on the daily).
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  • #27,345
  • Jan 16, 2011 7:15pm Jan 16, 2011 7:15pm
Setting itself for target range, probably around 900

Regards... O Poodeenyo
  • #27,346
  • Edited 11:19pm Jan 16, 2011 10:53pm | Edited 11:19pm
Watching the 15 minute chart for the cross and long entry.

Support line at 9970 will have to hold.

Update: AU failed to move higher and broke the 9970 and dropped deeper to the lower support area.
I already had EU and EJ shorts and did not attempt a 3rd pair short during the same time.
I will adjust once I exit shorts.
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TheCableGuy
  • #27,347
  • Jan 17, 2011 2:59am Jan 17, 2011 2:59am
Why is aud/usd suddenly trending up? lol

Counter intra-day trend no doubt, but its huge trend in short time with no relevant news.
  • #27,348
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:03am Jan 17, 2011 4:03am
Quoting vicious
Why is aud/usd suddenly trending up? lol

Counter intra-day trend no doubt, but its huge trend in short time with no relevant news.
Car sales data was positive, consumers don't buy cars during the holiday season unless they are confident about their economic prospects.

+ this market just loves the Aussie dollar

+ the EUR/AUD cross was at resistance on the weekly trend line

+ market is expecting a bullish day for US equities

Watch out for resistance @ .9950 and watch what happens to price on AU when the cross hits the 200 ema around 1.33 on the retrace.
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  • #27,349
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:15am Jan 17, 2011 4:15am
this is very hot pair for trading..iots going up without any strong reason..ppl just like it to trade...
  • #27,350
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:45am Jan 17, 2011 4:45am
Sorry i couldn't help it....
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Biggest joker
  • #27,351
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:23am Jan 17, 2011 5:23am
30% over-valued at 0.9800....not long before my Corsa's are taken!
Target 0.8900
  • #27,352
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:13am Jan 17, 2011 6:13am
Quoting baron193
Sorry i couldn't help it....
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  • #27,353
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:44am Jan 17, 2011 6:44am
Quoting Jade Gate
+ market is expecting a bullish day for US equities

.
US equities market is closed today, Monday 17th
  • #27,354
  • Jan 17, 2011 7:58am Jan 17, 2011 7:58am
Quoting davidmaria1
US equities market is closed today, Monday 17th
Yes, quite correct. Equities are not trading today, but the futures are. AU tends to track the S&P futures. There's an interesting hanging man (potentially) on the daily from Friday.

The bullish momo might also be a case of market fattening up the sacrificial lamb for Euro short cover purposes.

The USD often does surprisingly well on US public holidays.
  • #27,355
  • Jan 17, 2011 9:28am Jan 17, 2011 9:28am
Quoting baron193
Sorry i couldn't help it....


Sorry I couldn't help this.



1Hr chart sold off, came back up to give a short entry, target previous low 1hr candle.
1M chart to show entry, with the stop and targets. +9 pips
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  • #27,356
  • Jan 17, 2011 9:43am Jan 17, 2011 9:43am
Quoting monarch
Sorry I couldn't help this.



1Hr chart sold off, came back up to give a short entry, target previous low 1hr candle.
1M chart to show entry, with the stop and targets. +9 pips
There are always idiots lurking around making comments about other traders, good to see you got the pips and not just a quick laugh.
  • #27,357
  • Jan 17, 2011 9:50am Jan 17, 2011 9:50am
I think Baron was just poking fun, no harm.
This thread is a peaceful thread, if any trader wants to throw stabs, it will happen in E/U thread.

Cheers.
  • #27,358
  • Jan 17, 2011 1:51pm Jan 17, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting monarch
I think Baron was just poking fun, no harm.
This thread is a peaceful thread, if any trader wants to throw stabs, it will happen in E/U thread.

Cheers.
Yes, apologies, if we don't make any money out of this thing we can always sell our charts as work of art.
Hey, how about the other one? pretty psychedelic stuff huh?
Biggest joker
  • #27,359
  • Jan 17, 2011 3:13pm Jan 17, 2011 3:13pm
Cable news at 7pm. What could that possibly have to do with the Aussie? Well, let's look at the cross.

Price is presently looking to hold support on the 21ema (light pink). Some nice little wicks forming around 1.3350.

However, if the news is good for cable, it will have a negative effect on the Euro, and likely a positive effect on the Aussie. Won't be at all surprised to see the cross sell down further to the 200 ema at 1.3310 and AU to find some more legs north.

Cable hit resistance @1.5955 but the candle is presently an inverted hammer, meaning it will likely go back up. And the overall GU pattern is strong for more north.
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  • #27,360
  • Jan 17, 2011 3:31pm Jan 17, 2011 3:31pm
The importance of ema convergence across different time frames - this is very interesting when the ema's compress like this across different time frames, usually results in a strong move.

AU may be a nice buy around .9920 (if it gets there), watch for support to hold at that point.
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