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AUD/USD

  • #27,321
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:16pm Jan 14, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting Shaggy_rock
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m on Monday.
Ely, don't you think they 've sold many vehicles in December ? LoooL

Maybe hoovercrafts? Does that count?

Yes your probably right Shaggy...and its probably me thats been parking up all them Corsa's

Hopefully they'l come to collect them soon, its picking up...need them to collect'em closer to 1.0100....hopefully, just one more time....PLEASE!!
  • #27,322
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:40pm Jan 14, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting JanPoko
Well,
I am looking at the pair as pair - i.e. I am balancing aussie weak points agains dollar weak points. And the massive, extreme debt of USA overweights. Besides, I am convinced that floods will paradoxically contribute to the economy boost - not the contrary. China is such an immense market and sources eater that their economic deviations still cannot endanger Aussie trade surpluss.
So and so, in my opinion a long term value for this pair is above parity and not opposite. Especially, when swap rates do not push anyone into sell off when the...
Balanced point of view, the truth is whatever minor problems other countries might have they're still not as major as the huge debt problem the US has, i do believe the AUD belongs above parity permanently, however i remain open minded and will roll with whatever the charts throw at me.
Biggest joker
  • #27,323
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:49pm Jan 14, 2011 1:49pm
BTW one more little push lower and i'll be looking for the long again..
Biggest joker
  • #27,324
  • Jan 15, 2011 7:18am Jan 15, 2011 7:18am
They know!!!!!!!!!!!

Speculators cut US dollar shorts in latest week
Fri Jan 14, 2011

NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Currency speculators slashed
bets against the U.S. dollar by nearly half in the latest week,
data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on
Friday.

The value of the dollar's net short position fell to $7.38
billion in the week ended Jan. 11, from $12.4 billion the
previous week, according to Reuters and CFTC calculations.
The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from the net positions of International
Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound,
Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars.
  • #27,325
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:23pm Jan 15, 2011 2:23pm
will it play out..???
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  • #27,326
  • Jan 15, 2011 3:17pm Jan 15, 2011 3:17pm
AU may become a buy when the EUR/AUD cross hits 1.37 and tests.

The last 2 times that the cross had an emotional dose of north traffic, they both evaporated, going back down to put in new lows, while AU went on to put in new highs.

The cross has so far experienced a break out of the daily trend line and is presently testing the weekly trend line. Bullish sentiment is likely to see this break out also, but it may turn out to be a false break out. The test @ 1.37 will be important.

FX is a game of relative strength, AU's strength or weakness is contingent upon the strength or weakness of the Euro, and of course the overall bullish direction of the market.
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  • #27,327
  • Jan 15, 2011 6:30pm Jan 15, 2011 6:30pm
$A overvalued, say parity party poopers

Celebrations to mark the Aussie dollar’s expected rise to parity against the US dollar may be short-lived.
Some analysts say the local currency is as much as 30 per cent overvalued and may see a sharp reversal in fortunes.
The Australian dollar leapt to 99.18 US cents overnight, its highest since 1982 – prior to its float the following year – before retreating back below the 98 US-cent mark in local trading today.

Some strategists argue the Australian dollar’s recent resurgence is overdone and a significant drop is a real possibility.
”At an exchange rate of 98 US cents, the Aussie is approximately 30 per cent overvalued against the US dollar,” said New York-based GFT director Kathy Lien.
Ms Lien bases her estimate on the relative purchasing power in the two economies, using an identical basket of goods. The Aussie dollar is also out of whack with other currencies, she says.
”In fact, the Aussie is overvalued against every major currency including the British pound, Japanese Yen, euro and New Zealand dollar,” she said.
  • #27,328
  • Jan 15, 2011 7:09pm Jan 15, 2011 7:09pm
My point of view (you guys can slash me if i am wrong), i do believe the aussie will drop to .92 level next month.... the only reason will drop to that level is flooding queens area this month.... next month GDP and unemployment rate will rise(i assume that it will --> again i might be wrong).... next couple of weeks might retrace back up and above the level of parity....
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,329
  • Jan 15, 2011 7:20pm Jan 15, 2011 7:20pm
Quoting Level 4
$A overvalued, say parity party poopers

Celebrations to mark the Aussie dollar’s expected rise to parity against the US dollar may be short-lived.
Some analysts say the local currency is as much as 30 per cent overvalued and may see a sharp reversal in fortunes.
"Economists" have been saying the Aussie is over-valued for well over six months, nothing new. One has to put such statements in their proper context. AU has been doing so well because the rest of the global economy has sucked by compariosn.

Aussie has sound fiscal policy and good management. We don't have the banking or debt debacle that the US or Europe have, although there have been flow on effects, but on the scale of serious, they haven't rated a whole lot.

AU has enjoyed good support because it's economy is sound and because it is well positioned to capture future growth markets. The prophets of over-valued doom are basing their opinions on the historical context of AU as a proportion of the USD.

It may be that a new order is emerging, which according to some other economists, will see the Asian currencies shine for the next decade minimum while both the USD and Euro struggle.

Which isn't to say that AU won't pull-back, but on the whole, it is still in a much stronger position than most and for very good reason (including being the highest yielder).

Inserted Video
  • #27,330
  • Jan 16, 2011 12:48am Jan 16, 2011 12:48am
Quoting Level 4
$A overvalued, say parity party poopers

Celebrations to mark the Aussie dollar’s expected rise to parity against the US dollar may be short-lived.
Some analysts say the local currency is as much as 30 per cent overvalued and may see a sharp reversal in fortunes.
The Australian dollar leapt to 99.18 US cents overnight, its highest since 1982 – prior to its float the following year – before retreating back below the 98 US-cent mark in local trading today.

Some strategists argue the Australian dollar’s recent resurgence is overdone and a significant...

Ely, you're back!
  • #27,331
  • Edited 2:27am Jan 16, 2011 1:33am | Edited 2:27am
sorry posted in wrong thread . checking it soon .

anyway more or less similar as with usdchf chart posted , still on support , a bear there on it last movements , can expect a bouce towards 1.0037 or more before retesting the support 0,9849 again or any other decision , to turn into a bull .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #27,332
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:07am Jan 16, 2011 2:07am
last year AU renew high to 1.0255 ,i think parity won't last too long ,The DJI index have the risk to reverse ,Looking for opportunities to short AU would be a wise decision ,short above 1.0000 is reasonable .
  • #27,333
  • Jan 16, 2011 6:53am Jan 16, 2011 6:53am
Yes..

Level 4 bias is clearly evident as such that PPP is starting to look completely out of touch.
  • #27,334
  • Jan 16, 2011 10:59am Jan 16, 2011 10:59am
Any short now seems good, above or below 1.0000!
0.9000 seems pretty good short term.

Good Luck...Poodeenyo
  • #27,335
  • Jan 16, 2011 12:16pm Jan 16, 2011 12:16pm
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  • #27,336
  • Jan 16, 2011 12:18pm Jan 16, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment

Attachment

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  • #27,337
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:17pm Jan 16, 2011 2:17pm
I had 4 areas price could have gone, the top 2 channels were breached and now were trapped in the lower 2 channels.

Let's see how the move down plays on the recent low areas.

From there, we can re draw some trends, find some supp/res areas, and then predict our trend strength.

Cheers, and good trading to everyone this week.
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  • #27,338
  • Jan 16, 2011 3:00pm Jan 16, 2011 3:00pm
Here is a quick look at the Hour chart for A/U.

There is a lot of pressure downwards, but also a couple near trends to break through.

I agree, let's see how it goes in the Asia session.
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TheCableGuy
  • #27,339
  • Jan 16, 2011 4:25pm Jan 16, 2011 4:25pm
Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting
16 January 2011

Hedge fund manager in Mayfair was poring over spreadsheets of sovereign and corporate credit default swaps, interest rate and foreign exchange options with one aim: to “get short on China”.
The manager, who wanted to remain anonymous, said: “The Chinese delegation has said all week that there will be double-digit growth for years to come and the Brits have lapped it up. But the data doesn’t add up. We think we’ve experienced credit bubbles over the past few years, but China is the biggest.

http://twurl.nl/1elqsl

My view is this pair is very close to "popping"!
0.9000 is not a hard target...but 0.6700 could also be a possibility!
Poodeenyo
  • #27,340
  • Jan 16, 2011 5:21pm Jan 16, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting O Poodeenyo
Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting
16 January 2011

Hedge fund manager in Mayfair was poring over spreadsheets of sovereign and corporate credit default swaps, interest rate and foreign exchange options with one aim: to “get short on China”.
The manager, who wanted to remain anonymous, said: “The Chinese delegation has said all week that there will be double-digit growth for years to come and the Brits have lapped it up. But the data doesn’t add up. We think we’ve experienced credit bubbles over the past few years, but China is...
If you are hoping for a China collapse to short this pair, i'd say you better buy some gold...
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